Good Friday morning everyone as I'm trying to get going this morning after a long and pretty much uneventful severe weather event yesterday. I was in the studio all day and into the evening doing backup duty and listening to the scanner for the chief. The big story yesterday with the storms that did fire up was large hail. The largest hail was reported to be 4 inches in diameter and we had alot of other reports of baseball and tennis ball size hail. Overall it wasn't looking like a tornadic threat that morning and it didn't become one. There were no reports of tornadoes in Oklahoma or Texas however my target area once again was pretty spot on. If you wanna see all the storm reports click on this link SPC REPORTS
Now off to the upcoming chances of severe weather which seem to be this coming Monday the 7th and again Wednesday or Thursday. I'll talk about the Monday chance of severe weather since its the closest. This looks to be finely our first classic severe weather event across Oklahoma and in my eyes our first tornadic risk. A strong piece of energy in a bigger trough development across the northern Rockies will race southeast and dig into the Central Plains. In response an area of low pressure will form late Sunday across the lee side of the Rockies in southeast Colorado. This will start to bring back plenty of Gulf of Mexico moisture back northward into Texas, Oklahoma and even Kansas. 850 winds will also back as the low pressure strengthens as it pulls east and northeast across southern Kansas. This provide good convergence along the dry line as it progresses east Monday afternoon. Winds aloft will be turning with height and also will have ample speed shear as it looks now especially across Oklahoma and Kansas. Currently the models have dewpoints in the Oklahoma area in the upper 50s to low 60s range with about 60-70kts of shear. This will obviously be fine tuned over the weekend and I will update throughout with the latest model info. The great thing about this is Monday is my day off so I will be chasing for sure!! =) Now I'm hoping and I'm sure others that this doesn't crap out like this last one did. However just like I said in the beginning this a more classic setup so its less likely.
Now off to the upcoming chances of severe weather which seem to be this coming Monday the 7th and again Wednesday or Thursday. I'll talk about the Monday chance of severe weather since its the closest. This looks to be finely our first classic severe weather event across Oklahoma and in my eyes our first tornadic risk. A strong piece of energy in a bigger trough development across the northern Rockies will race southeast and dig into the Central Plains. In response an area of low pressure will form late Sunday across the lee side of the Rockies in southeast Colorado. This will start to bring back plenty of Gulf of Mexico moisture back northward into Texas, Oklahoma and even Kansas. 850 winds will also back as the low pressure strengthens as it pulls east and northeast across southern Kansas. This provide good convergence along the dry line as it progresses east Monday afternoon. Winds aloft will be turning with height and also will have ample speed shear as it looks now especially across Oklahoma and Kansas. Currently the models have dewpoints in the Oklahoma area in the upper 50s to low 60s range with about 60-70kts of shear. This will obviously be fine tuned over the weekend and I will update throughout with the latest model info. The great thing about this is Monday is my day off so I will be chasing for sure!! =) Now I'm hoping and I'm sure others that this doesn't crap out like this last one did. However just like I said in the beginning this a more classic setup so its less likely.
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