Monday, May 23, 2011

Significant Severe Weather Likely Over Next Two Days!

 Today might be just a tease of what could happen if the models play out tomorrow afternoon across the Great Plains. I'll be out chasing today across sw Oklahoma and maybe far north Texas. Tomorrow the dryline presses east and I'll be chasing across central Oklahoma. Where tornadoes look likely with any supercell that develops.

Today the tornado threat is lower but still nothing to take lightly with a very unstable atmosphere. Many of the storms will be capable of producing very large hail up to softball. Tornado will most likely occur with discrete supercells that can turn right. Greatest risk of tornadoes comes in two areas I believe, One across NE OK near Tulsa and another one around Lawton & Wichita Falls by late afternoon.

Don't forget to check out my live streaming video through this afternoon and evening.

Tuesday, May 17, 2011

Long Time No Post

Ya I've been a big slacker on this website in posting new blogs. Just haven't really needed too and been busy doing other things. Plus the severe to exceptional drought here in the southern Plains really hasn't made me post much. Currently for 2011 I have only been out in the field chasing twice & one was a blue sky bust. I'll have the summary on my second chase of the year on here by Thursday. I have it half way done but need to add a couple more things.

Things are definitely looking better for chase opportunities here by late week and into next week. Here is the link to the Storm Prediction Center for all the latest severe weather outlooks. Storm Prediction Center

If this wasn't enough excitement...haha   My Chasecation will be from June 2nd-June8th with my good friend Meteorologist Chris Stumpf. I'll have a daily forecast post then chase summary that night or next morning with pictures & video. Really looking forward to getting out in the Plains & not being tied down to my stations viewing area.

Have a great evening! Justin

Tuesday, May 10, 2011

Chase #3 of The Year Looks Interesting for Tomorrow

After a quieter day than anticipated tomorrow looks like it definitely has the possibility of being a very active one. Currently the SPC has a good portion of Oklahoma under a slight risk with a smaller area under a moderate risk.
The only thing I will say about the SPC outlook and graphic below from the NWS in OKC is that the dryline will likely be further west.
Models did a lousy job on the placement of the dryline today and typically are a little fast on movement. So I expect Super cells to develop by 4pm in western Oklahoma along 183 from Clinton south to Frederick. These storms will evolve and mature as they cross into central Oklahoma by early evening. Very large hail looks to be the biggest threat up 3 inches in diameter but a few tornadoes do look likely. More details tomorrow but wanted to put down and couple thoughts here before bed.