No Chasing in March But Could April Start with One?

Models continue to be iffy with the timing of the upper level energy, deepth of moisture and a pretty stout cap. However with the amount CAPE, Upper level winds and a Dryline nearby. I'm watching closely Sunday afternoon for a possible isolated Supercell from southwest Ok into N. Texas. Here are some maps from the latest 18z GFS that shows a very powerful atmosphere with a nice lid but not unbreakable lid on it. Many things will change as we head into the weekend but wanted to give a heads up on what i'm watching. Could the first chase of 2011 actually happen or will I have to wait another week? We will see.....

                                                                  CAPE 0z Sunday Evening

                                                                CIN 0z Sunday Evening

                                                            Dewpoint 0z Sunday Evening

                                              Sounding 0z Sunday Evening S. of Lawton



When will or will the storm season arrive here in the Southern Plains!?

Looking at the latest 8-14 analogs and GFS ensembles the dry conditions across the south look to continue. As the NAO continues to disrupt the overall moisture feed from the Gulf with a high pressure over it.

 

From the March 2011 Enso Update
"The moderate to strong La Niña conditions that were observed betweeen mid-August 2010 and early February 2011 have weakened to weak to moderate strength as of mid-March 2011. For the March-May season currently in progress, there is an approximately 75% probability for continuing La Niña conditions, and a 24% probability for returning to neutral ENSO conditions. Probabilities for La Niña conditions drop to just below 50% for the April-June season."

So where were the tornadoes in the Springs of 71', 74 & 99'?

I'll try to get the maps together here in the next day or two. Hopefully that'll give me some hope but here in the Southern Plains. We could be looking a pretty bad drought this summer with limited storms to chase this spring.

A Very Active Last 10 days of March?

Over the last couple of days the 8-14 day analog have been increasingly pointing to an active period across the Plains and into the Midwest.

So I took the top four years on the list and looked up the storm reports centered on that date. As you can see by the examples below a stormier period could be on the way.  

 

 Storm reports and the overall weather pattern looks to be changing to a more trough, ridge, trough. However by looking at the NAO and PNA charts below. There could be an unfavorable trough off the east coast disrupting the streamline flow from the Gulf. This is due to the NAO going negative and supporting a trough and low pressure development off the east coast. So this could actually keep the southern Plains capped with warm temperatures.

Time will tell but we're definitely in need of the rain down here in the Southern Plains. We currently have over a dozen wildfires just in the state of Oklahoma this afternoon.

Severe Weather Safety

Severe Weather

Safety Guide

Just like a fire, an earthquake or an automobile accident, a tornado is a low probability, high impact event. Chances are, you will never experience a tornado. Even if you live in the heart of tornado alley, the chances that your house will be struck by a tornado are small. However you still need to be ready just in case you hit winning lottery ticket. Your tornado safety plan is your life saver when severe weather threatens.

The severe weather safety guidelines exist because they work most of the time. Following these guidelines won't guarantee you won't be hurt or killed, but it significantly improves your chances of survival. it is important to understand what part of the year, and what time of the day, severe weather is most likely. Those should be the times when your severe weather awareness is highest, as it is when you are most likely to be adversely impacted. Bear in mind though that tornadoes and severe weather can occur at any time of the year, day or night.

Have a FAMILY DISASTER PLAN prepared including a disaster supply kit. Which would include water, clothing, blanket, First aid kit & meds, Battery powered NOAA Weather Radio, Flashlight with extra batteries, Cash and anything special for elderly or infant.

Be Prepared. . .It's Up to YOU!

Each year, many people are killed or seriously injured by tornadoes and severe thunderstorms despite advance warning. Some did not hear the warning, while others heard the warning but did not believe it would happen to them. The following preparedness information, combined with timely severe weather watches and warnings, could save your life. Once you receive a warning or observe threatening skies, YOU must make the decision to seek shelter before the storm arrives. It could be the most important decision you will ever make.

What Can Do Before Severe Weather Strikes YOU

Develop a plan for you and your family at home, work, school, and when outdoors. The American Red Cross offers planning tips on their Internet site: http://www.redcross.org/services/disaster/keepsafe/

Identify a safe place to take shelter. Information on how to build a Safe Room in your home or school is available from the Federal Emergency Management Agency at http://www.fema.gov/hazard/tornado/to_saferoom.shtm

Know the county/parish in which you live or visit. The National Weather Service issues severe weather warnings on a county. Keep a highway map nearby to follow storm movement from weather bulletins.

Have a NOAA Weather Radio with a warning alarm tone and battery back-up to receive warnings.

National Weather Service watches and warnings are also available on the Internet. Select your local National Weather Service office at http://www.weather.gov/organization.php or go to the National Weather Service Home Page at http://www.weather.gov/

Listen to radio and television for weather information.
Check the weather forecast before leaving for extended periods outdoors. Watch for signs of approaching storms.
If severe weather threatens, check on people who are elderly, very young, or physically or mentally disabled

What YOU Can Do When Threatening Weather Approaches

Lightning Safety Rules
Postpone outdoor activities if thunderstorms are imminent. This is your best way to avoid being caught in a dangerous situation.Move to a sturdy building or car. Do not take shelter in small sheds, under isolated trees, or in convertible automobiles. Stay away from tall objects such as towers, fences, telephone poles, and power lines.
If lightning is occurring and a sturdy shelter is not available, get inside a hard top automobile and keep the windows up. Avoid touching any metal. Do not take a bath or shower during a thunderstorm. Turn off air conditioners. Power surges from lightning can cause serious damage. If Caught Outdoors and No Shelter Is Nearby Find a low spot away from trees, fences, and poles. Make sure the place you pick is not subject to flooding.

If you are in the woods, take shelter under the shorter trees. If you feel your skin tingle or your hair stand on end, squat low to the ground on the balls of your feet. Place your hands over your ears and your head between your knees. Make yourself the smallest target possible and minimize your contact with the ground. DO NOT lie down.

Remember, if you can hear thunder – you are close enough to be struck by lightning!

Tornado Safety Rules
-In a home or building, move to a pre-designated shelter, such as a basement.
-If an underground shelter is not available, move to a small interior room or hallway on the lowest floor and get under a sturdy piece of furniture. Put as many walls as possible between you and the outside. Stay away from windows.
-Get out of automobiles. Do not try to outrun a tornado in your car; instead, leave it immediately for safe shelter.
-If caught outside or in a vehicle, lie flat in a nearby ditch or depression and cover your head with your hands. Be aware of flying debris. Flying debris from tornadoes causes most fatalities and injuries.
-Mobile homes, even if tied down, offer little protection from tornadoes. You should leave a mobile home and go to the lowest floor of a sturdy nearby building or a storm shelter.

Flash Flood Safety Rules
-Avoid walking, swimming, or driving in flood waters.
-Stay away from high water, storm drains, ditches, ravines, or culverts. If it is moving swiftly, even water six inches deep can knock you off your feet.
-If you come upon flood waters, stop, turn around, and go another way. Climb to higher ground.
-Do not let children play near storm drains.

Stay Informed. . .Use NOAA Weather Radio

The National Weather Service continuously broadcasts warnings and forecasts that can be received by NOAA Weather Radios, which are sold in many stores. The average range is 40 miles, depending on topography. Purchase a radio that has a battery back-up and a Specific Area Message Encoder feature, which automatically alerts you when a watch or warning is issued for your county or parish.

Check with your local National Weather Service office or visit the Internet site to determine if your county is covered by NOAA Weather Radio. National Weather Service watches and warnings are also available on the Internet by selecting your local National Weather Service office at or by going to the National Weather Service Home Page.

What to Listen For...

Tornado Watch: Tornadoes are possible in your area. Remain alert for approaching storms. Know what
counties are in the watch area by listening to NOAA Weather Radio or your local radio/television outlets

Severe Thunderstorm Watch: Tells you when and where severe thunderstorms are likely to occur. Watch the sky and stay tuned to know when warnings are issued.

Tornado Warning: A tornado has been sighted or indicated by weather radar.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning: Issued when severe weather has been reported by spotters or indicated by radar. Warnings indicate imminent danger to life and property to those in the path of the storm.

So what can you do if stuck in your home.... I have a real simple rule I tell my school kids when doing talks.
It's called the DUCK rule.

Home Safety

In the drawings below you can see simple layouts of typical homes. The area outlined in yellow are the areas that would be the safest place to be in case of a tornado.

Now you see....Now you don't

Well played Mother Nature...Well Played... After looking over this morning 12z models. The threat of severe weather anywhere in the southern Plains has almost vanished. Yesterday it looked amazing & today it looks like Horse sh@t. =) Very complicated jet stream out in the Pacific so changes could occur. However the chances don't look good at this time to be chasing anytime this week.

Here is the latest Day 3 SPC outlook

Welcome to the 2011 Spring/Storm Season!

March 1st represents the start of the meteorological Spring season (March 1st- May 31st) and in the chaser world "Storm Season".

Looking ahead to this coming Friday the 12z models have come to a mild agreement that supercells could form in western Oklahoma. Here are some the maps from the 84 hr NAM

So to celebrate the start of another storm season on the Southern Plains. I figured I would post a couple pictures of the previous storm seasons. Enjoy!



Slowly Rotating Wall Cloud- Colorado 10'



Beautiful Rainbow-Colorado 10'



Towering Cu-09'



Mothership-SW OK 08'





Mid Level Funnel- N.Tx 09'

Kansas- 10'