Sunday, April 6, 2008

Regional Tornado outbreak looking more likely tomorrow

Central and parts of western Oklahoma will see discrete supercells develop by 5pm tomorrow with a couple of them likely producing tornadoes. Things are really coming together like I mentioned a couple days ago as this is a more classic set up for severe weather. Right now there will be an area along the dry line of greater than 3000 joules of CAPE , 60-70kt 0-6km shear and EHI values >3 after 6pm. So any storms that can develop will likely be severe with very large hail up to 4 inches in diameter and tornadoes. Looking at the soundings this morning and hodographs there could be a couple strong tornadoes up to EF3 range. At this time the low level shear, amount of CAPE and length of the hodograph doesn't support violent tornadoes ( EF4 or EF5). My intial 24-36hr target area looks to be just northeast of Lawton about 45miles in northern Grady county. I'll more on this later this evening as the 0z models will give up a better look at tomorrow.

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