Memorial day chase?

Looking at things this morning Storm Prediction Center now has a large slight risk area out from Texas Panhandle east to upstate New York. They had also brought back the moderate risk from NE Texas Panhandle, Northwest OK into southern Kansas. Currently at 11am several boundaries were making things really messing however were starting to come together with areas of strong instability developing. Upper level winds are weaker then they have been over the pass several days but the cap is not as strong. Right now 850mb winds(5000ft) are southwesterly and will have to turn south/southeast to really increase a tornado threat. 500mb winds(18000ft) are really holding back west and could be a problem later this afternoon as they might not overlay with the greatest CAPE axis. They will likely by mid to late afternoon across southern Kansas but there is question is how much effective shear will be along the dry line in the TX panhandle and western Oklahoma. So for now I'm holding back here at home and waiting on things till early afternoon. If I would pick a target right now keeping in mind driving time and gas money. I like area from Buffalo, OK east to Enid, Ok which is about 3 to 3 1/2 hrs north of me. So I'm hoping things start working there way south so I don't have to drive that far......If I do go out and chase I'll try to keep you posted.

Severe weather outbreak

A very dangerous severe weather outbreak possible late this afternoon and evening from southern Nebraska south to west central Oklahoma. Strong south winds have continued to bring in deep moisture from the gulf as a potent upper level piece of energy swings northeast from the Southwest. This will help spark off super cells as early as mid afternoon across north Kansas into Nebraska. Then along the dry line by late afternoon and evening as far south as Southwest Oklahoma possibly. Now for southwest Oklahoma its a little more up in the air as the question is will there be enough convergence along the dryline to break through the cap. Currently at Noon it is very windy and warm with winds gusting over 35mph from the south. Dryline is slowly working its way east across the eastern counties of the Tx Panhandle. My thinking right now is that will likely be one or two large supercells across nw and west central OK by dusk. If one goes there will likely be one or two more that develop. As the atmosphere is so primed that the first one will be so explosive that it will be a cap breaker. Like last night there will be a small window for maximum intensity before the cap strengthens back up. Right now it looks like from 5pm-10pm will be the time for severe weather in west central Oklahoma. Pros are the very high helicity values (turning of the winds), High EHI values over 4 and CAPE values exceeding 2500-3500 j/kg. Cons are limited convergence along dryline, strong Cap overhead and Low pressure pretty far north that the winds might not back enough to the southeast(currently south). So there is a brief analysis on the situation this afternoon but the potential is pretty high. My current plans are to head out from the station around 2pm. I plan on heading to Altus and look over conditions there are hopefully find some hotel that has free wireless Internet then go from there. Today's chase will be tricky with Internet as looking at the At&t data network map there are alot of holes in their services out there. So I'm trying to stay in places we have Internet until we know exactly where to go and then its just watching the storm and its surrounding environment no technology needed then. Map above is where I think intial storms will develop in our viewing area.

EDIT: BUST as cap and lack of convergence along dryline couldn't get anything organized. Supercells with tornadoes did form but was in far northwest Oklahoma into Kansas. So the slow times continue for us in southwest Oklahoma.

Severe weather possible this afternoon

Currently its sunny here in Lawton as morning t-storms have moved well to the east. Clouds have really started to diminish as the lower levels really start to warm. Currently the SPC has far western Oklahoma in a see text. However I think the new update due in the next 30 mins will put all of SW Ok in a Slight risk for severe weather. Looking at the latest RUC 15z it paints a bulls eye for severe weather in SW Ok after 6pm. Moderate CAPE values exceeding 3000, SRH 0-3km over 350 and Strong tornado potential over 3. Those are the pros now the cons to this setup is the strong Cap building in from the southwest and mixing or drying of the boundary layer. Now this could completely keep things calm till at or a little after sunset but there is one more thing to consider. Morning thunderstorms and the advance of the western trough will help advect warm moist air northward against a surface boundary along the Red River. This might help provide surface moisture convergence and help towers break the cap by 5pm this afternoon. Right now the last three runs of the Ruc continue to point the bulls eyes across southwest Oklahoma with storms breaking out by 7pm. So this will continue to be watched and a chase might be on for later this afternoon. More later........

Edit: New map posted above and still think there is a chance that severe storms will fire up in Sw Oklahoma after 6pm. 18z Ruc shows very favorable parameters across the area as the warm front and nose LLJ races northward this evening. The window of svr storms is about 4 hours between 5pm-9pm. Right now Chasing is on hold because its about 1-2 hours west of me and the price of gas. My boss is not liking the chances of storms so I'm not chasing for the station at this time if I go out. So the gas money is out of my pocket so I will wait and see for now.

EDIT: BUST! Nothing develop besides a couple cap starved showers southwest of us south of Childress.

Pattern change into a large severe weather outbreak?

A pattern chang e is finally occurring over the United States especially over the West and Central Plains. It will be a little slower over the East Coast but eventually by next week they'll be enjoying normal to above normal temperatures finally this Spring. This pattern is being changed by a abnormally strong jet stream for this time of year as a large trough develops in the West . This trough will be forced to deepen and become stationary as a trough also deepens along the East Coast. This will force a ridge to amplify in the center part of the nation creating very warm temperatures. With such deep troughs the pattern has dramatically slowed as the trough in the East will slowly weaken and move into the Atlantic. This will allow the Trough in the West to slowly spread to the east during the weekend.

A lee side low will develop across Colorado late Wednesday and deepen during the day Thursday. This will send the Dry line east through the heating of the day from southwest Nebraska south to western Kansas to Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma border by 7pm Thursday afternoon. Storms will likely fire along the dry line by mid to late afternoon as far south as Lubbock, Texas by dusk. Two areas of interest are one along the triple point in Southwest Nebraska and the other spot along dry line from South Kansas to Southwest Oklahoma where the 500mb winds diverge. After Thursday the models continue to disagree on the evolution of the trough coming out of the West. Friday will once again form along the triple point and dry line however the Cap will likely be stronger along the dry line plus high LCL heights. Over the weekend another low pressure will likely develop along the Lee side creating numerous storms to develop along the front. Timing and specifics can't be made at this time with all the differences in models. However severe weather will be likely from Texas north to Nebraska from Thursday to likely to at least Sunday. At this time I will be out chasing this Thursday and possibly Friday. This is pattern that is very conducive for classic supercells with tornadic capabilities. Directional and speed shear will be very conducive for long lived mature supercells capable of producing tornadoes. I also think there will likely be a few long lived strong tornadoes over this stretch of days with such strong backed 850 and 700mb winds. Then you place an abnormally strong Jet Stream over this June like warm sector things are being set in place for a fairly large severe weather outbreak. I will have another analysis on things for Thursday Wednesday evening.

SPC has a Slight Risk for Day 3 which I think will go to a Moderate Risk by Tomorrow's Day 2 Outlook with a 35% Hatch. I also think that by Day 1 the area will be much larger slight risk with a moderate hatched area with 15% hatched tornado area. My forecast is on the right and SPC on the Left.

Chase Day 5/13/08

I will be chasing this afternoon and evening as parts of the area are under a slight and moderate risk of severe storms. Conditions this morning are complex with a cold front racing southeast across western parts of Oklahoma. Ahead of the front temperatures are already in the upper 70s to low 80s at 11am. Dewpoints are pretty sticky as well from 66-70 degrees. Skies were mostly sunny in parts of southwest Oklahoma however to the east and south there were mostly cloudy under a stratus deck. Models continue to indicate the 500mb wave to continue to be sheared out as it heads northeast. This will help intiate storms ahead of the cold front throughout the afternoon and evening. My target location is the area just to the east of Wichita Falls and west of Ardmore. This area has several questionable parts to it but is the area with the best potential in my immediate area. Pros is the extreme instability with CAPE >4000 and LI >-8 and some backing of the 850mb winds towards dusk. Cons is the lack of 850 and 700mb winds, subsidence behind the 500mb trough moving east and possible Cap still holding back the storms at the surface till after dark. One thing that gives us hope is the very steep and good convergence of Theta-E. So any t-storms that root there way to the surface could put down a tube with any boundary interaction and its strong updraft. So not looking for long tracked tornadoes but we could get some weaker short lived tubes. I'll try to update this later this afternoon before things pick up around 5pm central time.

Edit: 5/20/08 Sorry for the late post but I typed and posted a final chase analysis. Didn't noticed it didn't post until today so this will be a little shorter then the original.

The chase started out with me and my photog Oliver head southeast to just south of Waurika, Ok. We sat there for almost two hours just along the boundary where towering cumulus tried and tried to organize. By this time you could really see how the lower and mid level winds were not going to be favorable. However the temperature was 92 with a dewpoint of 73 at our location. By 6pm storms we starting to go up along the boundary in northern Oklahoma and to our southwest in northern Texas. So we went after the storms to our southwest since it was in our viewing area and in an area of over 4,000 CAPE. Once we got in to the general area I started to lose my Internet and the two counties that the storm was in has horrible chase terrain. So waited to the northeast side of the storm hoping for another storm to fire along the boundary or for it to move towards us. Well the storm matured and moved more east then north till dark. However it never produced anything more than a wall cloud and golf ball size hail. We did have a storm fire to its northeast in Archer county that was warned for golf ball size hail. We drove around it core and received only dime size hail. Shortly before sunset the storms quickly dissipated and the day was over. As you see by the storm reports my target area was a little off and the day was pretty quiet.

Possible Chase day this coming Tuesday

After a gut wrenching break in severe weather across Southwest Oklahoma we might just have a chance to chase this Tuesday. A strong small compact shortwave along with a strong jet stream will dive southeast into southern Plains. Pros of this setup is the possibility of moderate to strong Cap, warm temperatures along with dewpoints into the middle to upper 60s and changing winds with height. Cons are the possibility of a stronger cap to hold off the convection till after dark, Position of the upper low and if it will overlay with the warm surface readings, also the strength of the 850 and 700mb winds.

All these things will change over the next several days but the chance of a possible moderate risk day is there. Right now its looking like Tuesday will be the best chance of severe weather for this coming week. More updates later........