Night before the chase

Greetings Everyone! This will short and sweet as I'm about to head to the airport to pick up becky. As her flight got delayed due to the MCS going through north Texas heading towards where she came from Dallas.

Forecast- Lots of rain this evening with a complex of severe t'storms that has a pretty nice cold pool behind it. Notice though that things have rebounded a little over the Texas panhandle with main short wave. As a new low pressure has deepened over Oklahoma Panhandle. This might be a saving factor for tomorrow as dry air has not come surging in behind the first shortwave. Water vapor does show some energy still left in the southwest flow that will move across tomorrow afternoon. Models have done horrible the last two days with placement of fronts, low pressure and convection. So I think its a crap shoot on tomorrow but think we'll see some supercells from Oklahoma panhandle southeast to near Dallas along a stalled front. We'll see what overnight models and upper air soundings have to say. For now i'll leave you with the current day2 outlook from SPC. I'll have a full pre chase day 1 analysis tomorrow morning.

Quick Update on Chase 2009

Extremely busy trying to get ready for mini chase 2009 and dealing with a couple unexpected issues. The official start will be this Thursday June 11th. However we might make it out for a while tomorrow evening across Southwest Oklahoma. As Becky gets off the plane at 5:55pm here in Lawton. Models continue to have a lot of issues with the southwest flow of the southern stream and split flow across the West of the two jet streams. Within these two bands of strong upper level winds are short waves or enhanced lift(energy). Each one of these helps creates lift and t'storms to form. It also helps determine where areas of low pressure form and strength of them. Right now the models have big difference in strength and timing of these short waves. So right now I'm not really looking too far down the road towards Friday or Saturday. Like I mentioned earlier Wednesday does look decent for severe weather across the Texoma area. So a brief evening chase could happen but we'll for sure get out on Thursday. As Thursday has even bigger question marks in where the instability sets up. Here is the latest outlook from the SPC for Wednesday and Thursday. I'll have more on tomorrow's possible chase by early afternoon so make sure you check back.

Chase 2009 is almost here

Mini Chase 2009 is almost here as myself and my niece will be taking a quick four day journey. Across the Plains looking the magical and mysterious supercell that produces a tornado. She arrives Wednesday evening 6:30ish and looking at the latest forecast could do a spontaneous warm up chase around Sw Oklahoma. Then after I get off work Thursday morning around 10ish we'll head out. Then chase Thursday through Saturday before heading back to OKC for her to board a plane back to Indiana.

Looking at the long range models and ensembles the weather pattern isn't going to be perfect. However a hell of a lot better then its been over the past 4 weeks for severe weather. A similar situation t0 what we're dealing with this weekend will take place late next week into the weekend. So the hot spot will be from NE Colorado southeastward to Northern Oklahoma more then likely. So Thursday chase will be across Kansas due to traveling time then probably up in western Nebraska and NE Colorado. Which wouldn't be too bad because I would love to take a little trip to Golden, Colorado for some nice Coors(Right Chris =) ) That might be wishful thinking as that would be a long drive but you never know. Right now I would give it the chance of seeing nice supercells and good storm structure(something Becky has never seen) a 7 out of 10. Now the possibility of seeing a tornadic storm based on synoptic set up I would say 3 out of 10. So hopefully the weather pattern gets a little more amplified and the shortwave comes out at a little better time. I'll have more on the trip later and make sure you add me to your Twitter account or just keep checking on the web page for updates. I will be posting pictures and twitty while out in the field. This time chasing I'll have time and not having to deal with doing work stuff.

I'm back and so is the severe weather

Models for the last couple of weeks have been teasing a last gasp of the storm season. With the climatological season quickly coming a end this last gasp better come quickly. As of tonight I really believe that we will see some increase in severe weather over the next 10-14 days over the Plains. As the ensembles, GFS and JAM are all on board in breaking down the Mexico High/Ridge and dumping the trough into the west. The questions will be how much will the jet flatten out over the East and how far east will the trough in the West be? I'm really questioning with the latest indications of the NAO trying to go negative if we can get out of the NW flow. The Western High Plains will be will the NW Flow turn off the real Gulf of Mexico moisture train. Those of you weather geeks know this is a similar situation that happened over the early Spring.

However there is some positive signs if you're hoping for more chasing or severe weather. In the next 6-14 days as the dailies of the SOI have gone strongly Positive. Generally when this happens the trough can anchor itself in the Western US. Unfortunately with the SOI already going neutral or slightly negative this pattern will be short lived. As with the El Nino coming on the theme of the summer will be cool northeast and hot southwest. With the severe weather focused in the Great Lakes and Northeast with the dominant northwest flow.

This week we'll see a little bit of severe weather over the Southern Plains Monday and Tuesday. A weak flow and cold front charging south will limited the severe weather to mainly a large hail and damaging wind threat. Then by next week the trough enters the West coast and the flow should start to flatten out. This will allow the moisture to climb northward and start to interact with stronger flow overtop of it.

So maybe there is some hope for the start of June and lets try to not to dwell on the horrible month of May.

Major Outbreak of Severe Storms Later Today

Major outbreak of severe storms is looking likely from Illinois southwest to Oklahoma. Damaging winds and very large hail look to be the biggest factors. However a couple areas will have an increased tornadic threat towards sunset. One area will be from far western Illinois near St. Louis to Joplin, Missouri. Another one which is very conditional will be From just east of Oklahoma city southwest to Frederick, Oklahoma. Here is the latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center plus Hail threat then Tornado Threat..... To get the latest information click on the link SPC

Another chase another chase without seeing a tornado

May 1st 2009 chase had promise but in the end the lack upper level winds were its downfall. Chase went down into west north Texas around the city of Seymour. Here are the pictures and captions telling a little about the chase.

May 1st Chase