After a gut wrenching break in severe weather across Southwest Oklahoma we might just have a chance to chase this Tuesday. A strong small compact shortwave along with a strong jet stream will dive southeast into southern Plains. Pros of this setup is the possibility of moderate to strong Cap, warm temperatures along with dewpoints into the middle to upper 60s and changing winds with height. Cons are the possibility of a stronger cap to hold off the convection till after dark, Position of the upper low and if it will overlay with the warm surface readings, also the strength of the 850 and 700mb winds.
All these things will change over the next several days but the chance of a possible moderate risk day is there. Right now its looking like Tuesday will be the best chance of severe weather for this coming week. More updates later........
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