A pattern chang e is finally occurring over the United States especially over the West and Central Plains. It will be a little slower over the East Coast but eventually by next week they'll be enjoying normal to above normal temperatures finally this Spring. This pattern is being changed by a abnormally strong jet stream for this time of year as a large trough develops in the West . This trough will be forced to deepen and become stationary as a trough also deepens along the East Coast. This will force a ridge to amplify in the center part of the nation creating very warm temperatures. With such deep troughs the pattern has dramatically slowed as the trough in the East will slowly weaken and move into the Atlantic. This will allow the Trough in the West to slowly spread to the east during the weekend.
A lee side low will develop across Colorado late Wednesday and deepen during the day Thursday. This will send the Dry line east through the heating of the day from southwest Nebraska south to western Kansas to Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma border by 7pm Thursday afternoon. Storms will likely fire along the dry line by mid to late afternoon as far south as Lubbock, Texas by dusk. Two areas of interest are one along the triple point in Southwest Nebraska and the other spot along dry line from South Kansas to Southwest Oklahoma where the 500mb winds diverge. After Thursday the models continue to disagree on the evolution of the trough coming out of the West. Friday will once again form along the triple point and dry line however the Cap will likely be stronger along the dry line plus high LCL heights. Over the weekend another low pressure will likely develop along the Lee side creating numerous storms to develop along the front. Timing and specifics can't be made at this time with all the differences in models. However severe weather will be likely from Texas north to Nebraska from Thursday to likely to at least Sunday. At this time I will be out chasing this Thursday and possibly Friday. This is pattern that is very conducive for classic supercells with tornadic capabilities. Directional and speed shear will be very conducive for long lived mature supercells capable of producing tornadoes. I also think there will likely be a few long lived strong tornadoes over this stretch of days with such strong backed 850 and 700mb winds. Then you place an abnormally strong Jet Stream over this June like warm sector things are being set in place for a fairly large severe weather outbreak. I will have another analysis on things for Thursday Wednesday evening.
SPC has a Slight Risk for Day 3 which I think will go to a Moderate Risk by Tomorrow's Day 2 Outlook with a 35% Hatch. I also think that by Day 1 the area will be much larger slight risk with a moderate hatched area with 15% hatched tornado area. My forecast is on the right and SPC on the Left.
A lee side low will develop across Colorado late Wednesday and deepen during the day Thursday. This will send the Dry line east through the heating of the day from southwest Nebraska south to western Kansas to Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma border by 7pm Thursday afternoon. Storms will likely fire along the dry line by mid to late afternoon as far south as Lubbock, Texas by dusk. Two areas of interest are one along the triple point in Southwest Nebraska and the other spot along dry line from South Kansas to Southwest Oklahoma where the 500mb winds diverge. After Thursday the models continue to disagree on the evolution of the trough coming out of the West. Friday will once again form along the triple point and dry line however the Cap will likely be stronger along the dry line plus high LCL heights. Over the weekend another low pressure will likely develop along the Lee side creating numerous storms to develop along the front. Timing and specifics can't be made at this time with all the differences in models. However severe weather will be likely from Texas north to Nebraska from Thursday to likely to at least Sunday. At this time I will be out chasing this Thursday and possibly Friday. This is pattern that is very conducive for classic supercells with tornadic capabilities. Directional and speed shear will be very conducive for long lived mature supercells capable of producing tornadoes. I also think there will likely be a few long lived strong tornadoes over this stretch of days with such strong backed 850 and 700mb winds. Then you place an abnormally strong Jet Stream over this June like warm sector things are being set in place for a fairly large severe weather outbreak. I will have another analysis on things for Thursday Wednesday evening.
SPC has a Slight Risk for Day 3 which I think will go to a Moderate Risk by Tomorrow's Day 2 Outlook with a 35% Hatch. I also think that by Day 1 the area will be much larger slight risk with a moderate hatched area with 15% hatched tornado area. My forecast is on the right and SPC on the Left.
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