Currently most of southwest Oklahoma is in stratus clouds and fog however looking at the latest visible satellite there is some good clearing to the southwest. This clearing now looks like it will be over southwest Oklahoma by 1pm. This will likely help temperatures get into the upper 70s to low 80s across the area. Latest RUC shows a dryline bulge after 4pm across western Oklahoma with a triple point just north of that. Precip according to the RUC also develops after 5pm across that area with over 2500 joules of CAPE. Now what I'm worried about besides the time of initiation is the amount of upper level support and backing of the surface winds. Right now there seems to be a impulse over western New Mexico which could be the trigger this afternoon. However per the 12z NAM and latest RUC the 850mb winds and 500mb don't really start turning and increasing till after 0z (7pm). So even if storms can fire will they have enough low level and upper level support to be tornadic. All models continue to show increasing instability and upper level winds after dark across the area. So storms can get going ahead of the dry line then they will likely be severe well into the evening. My plan right now is to wait and see what the early afternoon conditions are. My target location for the past two days has been the Hobart area. Right now it is looking quite favorable spot however the trend has pushed things a little west and maybe a little south. I'll have a update right before I head out roughly around 3pm this afternoon.
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