Well greetings from lovely Dodge City, Kansas. Yesterday was pretty boring day as we left Oklahoma City roughly around 2pm. Headed west on I-40 then north to Buffalo, Oklahoma where we watched a couple elevated showers develop and quickly die out within an hours time. At that time I made the call that we just head north to Dodge City. Get some food, a hotel and a good nights sleep.
Which here I am in the Days Inn breakfast area looking over the latest observations and computer models. Today definitely looks like an up slope day off the Rockies as the there isn't much in the way of large scale forcing. The cap is fairly strong and will be an issue away from the mountains but expect to see at least a couple isolated storms from firing by mid to late afternoon.
Moisture will likely quickly increase under southeast winds as a lee side low develops around Colorado Springs area. Models this morning have increased the dew point levels just a tad here across eastern parts of Colorado. So I expected dews to run from near 60 near the Wyoming/Colorado border to maybe middle to upper 60s along western Kansas. This will likely help CAPE values climb into the 2,500 to 3,000 range and with 40-50kt effective shear. Supercells do look likely with large hail as they drift east/southeast. Tornado threat will be highest across southeast Wyoming and northeast Colorado as it looks now with fairly weak 850 winds but great turning from 0-3km.
So with that being said and me having a very sluggish morning I'm going to say goodbye for now.
Target Area: Sterling, Colorado expect storms to go severe after 4pm mountain time.
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