The Chase is about to begin as conditions look pretty good. =)

Early this afternoon, conditions were starting to heat up as the low stratus deck continues to burn off. A powerful jet stream continues to barrel underneath a large trough in the desert southwest. This jet stream will turn the corner and spread right over top a moderately unstable air mass by mid afternoon. One thing that is really encouraging to me is the strong divergence aloft as the jet stream splits over Northern Texas and Oklahoma. So any t'storm that gets going will have great upper level support. Here is the 250mb map for 7pm this evening.

The lower levels are becoming nice and humid as well with dew points climbing into the lower 60s. South to southeast winds will also promote higher helicity values especially during the evening hours. So with CAPE values exceeding 2,500 to 3,000 joules and high lapse rates. Very large hail looks to be a big concern as right now baseball size hail doesn't a possibility. LCL heights(base cloud level) will be conducive to support tornadic development with any storm that is isolated through the evening.

Eventually the dryline storms across eastern Texas panhandle and western Oklahoma will be overtaken by a squall line along the cold front. As Damaging winds and some hail looks to be a widespread threat across Oklahoma and North Texas. These storms will likely surge east into eastern Oklahoma by daybreak as they start to weaken.

So a very busy time for across the Southern Plains as I plan on leaving for around Childress here in about an hour. Don't forget to check back as the Live Streaming Dash cam will be up and running.