Chances of Severe Weather still lurking

Models and SPC still continue to show the threat of isolated severe weather over the next several days. Still many questions out there on the evolution of the Western trough and how negatively tilted will the weekend storm system become before occluding and weakening. How much moisture will make it up against the cold front and dryline by Saturday afternoon. Also how deep will the moisture be and how much will it mix out during the afternoon.

Looking at the latest CIN against the Lifted Index and CAPE values. I see the best chances of severe weather to be from Eas Central Kansas near Kansas City southwest to South central Oklahoma near Oklahoma City. As the main threat looks to be in the form of mainly large hail up golf balls and some isolated damaging wind gusts. Based on the lasted model shear parameters and low level moisture. The tornado threat looks very limited to near the triple point in South Central Kansas and only for the first hour or two of storm development.

Here is the latest SPC outlook for Saturday and Sunday. Sunday t'storms will be more widespread as the cold front accelerates east into deeper moisture. Portions of Illinois, Indiana, Missouri and Kentucky will have the highest probability of seeing severe weather. Isolated tornado will be possible but the biggest threat will be damaging winds. Along a squall line of t'storms that will race east across the area by Sunday evening.

An even bigger severe weather event will probably take place Monday and Tuesday across the Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley and parts of the Southern Plains. While a blizzard will likely be going strong across the northern Mississippi Valley. Tornadic supercells could be roaming just south of the low pressure in the warm sector. If you live in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, and points to the Southwest including Arkansas, Missouri and far Northeast Texas. You'll need to keep abreast on the latest forecasts over the next couple of days. More updates on early next week later but first lets get over the slight chance of severe weather this weekend.