Monday, November 10, 2008

Another Severe Weather Outbreak probably bigger

Wow, looking at some of the model data and surface analysis paints an very unstable atmosphere later this afternoon. Currently the SPC has a slight risk from parts of Oklahoma south into Texas. After looking at things this morning I wouldn't be surprised if they upgrade portions of the slight risk into a moderate risk. As very strong upper level winds will overlay the turning of the winds near the surface to promote the development of supercells by mid afternoon. The likely moderate risk area will be from Abilene to just south of Dallas to along I-35 west to near Junction, Texas. This area will have the greatest threat of tornadoes including some strong tornadoes by late afternoon. For the Texoma area we're watching how far north the warm front moves and how much sunlight/heating we can get by mid afternoon. Currently there is quite a bit of clearing off to the south and west. As storms have already pulled north of the viewing area for the most part. This could be another chase day for me across North Texas as I'll probably head out by 2pm. Latest Outlook posted at 7am Central time.

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