Quiet week as an active pattern is looming ahead

Sitting here enjoying a nice afternoon of watching the Masters and finally looking at some mid to long range models. This last week and half has been pretty active in severe weather and just in general with the weather down here. So I'll give you a brief analysis on what I see for the next 2-3 weeks for the Texoma Area. Currently right now we have a nice size trough across the eastern United States bringing much below normal temperatures. Temperatures in Lawton are forecasted to be some 10 degrees below our normal high today and tomorrow. Eventually the trough will pull north and east as a big high pressure moves south into the southeast. Which brings up a good thing to forecast by is if you see a big high pressure in the Carolinas you typically see a major warm up in the center part of the nation. This will be no exception as parts of the Plains that saw snow just a day or two ago will be in the 70s by mid week. These southerly winds will bring warmer and more moist air north into the Southern Plains. By mid week a trough will also start to deepen across the Western States. The will tighten the Jet and send a piece of energy across the Texoma area by Thursday and Friday. This will likely produce a chance of severe weather depending on strength of the shortwave. This looks to only be the start of the overall trend as a broad trough develops over the Northwest and maybe a little bit of blocking remaining over the Northeast. However overall the pattern will likely become a Spring like pattern with a southwest flow over the Plains and into the East. This will allow plenty of warm and moist air to really get established across the southern part of the nation. As this pattern will not be producing the occasional strong cold fronts that we have been seing that pushes well into the Gulf of Mexico clearing out the higher dew points. Severe weather will likely be almost a everyday occurrence by the last 10 days of April across the Plains. Texoma will be no exception as a nice 850mb pattern sets up allowing some nice dry line storms let alone some stronger 500mb shortwaves in the mix. So I expect after this week or so of down time it will really start to pick up by the end of the month. Here is a Picture of the latest predicted high temperatures for Wednesday afternoon.