No Chasing in March But Could April Start with One?

Models continue to be iffy with the timing of the upper level energy, deepth of moisture and a pretty stout cap. However with the amount CAPE, Upper level winds and a Dryline nearby. I'm watching closely Sunday afternoon for a possible isolated Supercell from southwest Ok into N. Texas. Here are some maps from the latest 18z GFS that shows a very powerful atmosphere with a nice lid but not unbreakable lid on it. Many things will change as we head into the weekend but wanted to give a heads up on what i'm watching. Could the first chase of 2011 actually happen or will I have to wait another week? We will see.....

                                                                  CAPE 0z Sunday Evening

                                                                CIN 0z Sunday Evening

                                                            Dewpoint 0z Sunday Evening

                                              Sounding 0z Sunday Evening S. of Lawton