Severe Weather & Extreme Heat

Spring has been fairly slow in regards to severe weather but that could be changing over the next week or two. As the pesky cold air and trough in the east is showing signs of breaking down with the mean trough developing into the west. This is supported by the NAO going positive and the PNA going negative forecasted by the models. So tonight's into Monday severe weather event could be the start of more frequent bouts of severe weather from the Plains into the east.

 

Today looks to be a very warm to hot day across the Plains as south winds continue to surge moisture north. This will interact with a sharp cold front that will quickly dive east/southeast tonight into tomorrow. The limiting factor of today's severe weather will be a warm layer of air aloft above the surface called a CAP. Looking at the soundings this morning, it is very likely there will be very little convection prior 0z (7pm) from Kansas south to Texas along the dryline. Storms will likely start to form from Iowa to Kansas after 7pm as the cold front catches up to the dryline as the linear forcing can lift the air over the cap.

   Hot Temperatures!! Areas in pink are over 90 degrees on April 3rd!

Now even the cap will most likely inhibit storm develop during the day. The situation is definitely not something to ignore due to the explosive environment from Iowa to Oklahoma. Here below is a sounding at Topeka, Kansas the shows a shotgun sounding. Meaning that if the parcel can break the CAP the air will explode upwards allowing for explosive development of t'storms.

Eventually the cold front takes over and storms will explode up from Illinois south to Texas in more of a linear fashion. This broken line of storms will have the risk of very large hail and damaging winds as it heads southeast towards the Mississippi Valley by Monday afternoon.  Here is the SPC outlooks for Today and Tomorrow.