Christmas Blizzard and A Possible Severe Weather Outbreak Is On The Way

Well is this weather pattern busy enough for you? This pattern should be of no surprise since it was advertised and predicted since early November on here. So here we go again with another winter storm just like we experience about two weeks ago. As a low pressure develops on the newest surge of arctic air working it’s way south. On Friday I posted about the two scenarios based on the pattern and model data. It’s looking like Storm path #1 is the model choice with some tweaking from me.

Wednesday an area of low pressure will develop around Lubbock, Texas and work its way towards far southeast Oklahoma. This is when the trough goes negative and the models and I expect a bomb genesis of the low pressure to occur. As the low pressure goes from a 1003mb low near W.F. to 989 mb low near Springfield, Missouri. Then will start to fill back in as it occludes and drifts north into far northwest Illinois.

Now before I get to the snow I want to make sure people know about the severe weather possibilities. I’m starting to get pretty concerned about a mini tornado outbreak across portions of eastern Texas. By Wednesday evening the low really starts to strengthen and winds really start to pick up and turn with height. The area of concern will be from I-35 in Texas from Dallas to San Antonio eastward. The potential will continue overnight into southwestern Arkansas and into Louisiana. This will continues Thursday across the Mississippi Valley with the threat of Damaging winds and isolated Tornadoes. Here is the latest SPC outlook for Wednesday.

As the upper level low matures the cold air will really start to filter in behind the storm by Wednesday night. It will change the wrap around moisture into moderate to occasionally heavy snow across portions of Western Oklahoma into parts of Kansas. This will continue to drift north and slowly east into Kansas, Iowa, Eastern Nebraska and far Northwest Missouri by Christmas eve evening. The swath of the heaviest snows will likely run from Northwest Oklahoma to western Kansas to central and eastern Nebraska and a good portion of Iowa. Parts of Kansas, Iowa and Nebraska will likely have over a of foot of wind blown snow. As temperatures fall into the teens with wind chills to near zero.

I’ll have more on this over the next couple of days as this is a big time winter storm. As it will affect flights and driving conditions across a good portion of the country during the Christmas. If this wasn’t enough you should see what I have in the cards for New Year’s week. From California to Carolina could be seeing snow as southern mauler could be in the works. Right before the coldest Arctic air enough that make penguins shiver moves in the first 10 days of the year 2010.

Good night- Justin

Two Major Winter Storms On The Way....Hello Winter!

A nasty storm continues to crank up on this Friday afternoon in parts of the Southeast. This low pressure will continue to phase with the northern branch of the jet stream and deepen. Later on this evening the low pressure will be positioned off the South Carolina coast. Heavy snows will start to spread north into parts of Mid-Atlantic where snowfall rates will increase to near 1 to 2 inches per hour. These heavy snows will to continue to strengthen in bands with snowfall amounts up to 3 inches per hour possible by Saturday morning. As the low I believe will take a more northerly track compared to the model consensus of northeast. This will take place in my forecast once it hits the Cape off North Carolina and encounters the warm Gulf Stream. This will really wind up the storm and with centrifugal force allow the low pressure to drift north. Then as the storm starts to interact with some cooler water and max out. The storm will then turn right and drift northeast to follow the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream. This will likely be a crippling storm for parts of the I-95 corridor. A large swath of 10-16 inches of snow will stretch from Ashville, North Carolina north to Washington D.C. to Baltimore and Philly Then up NYC and Boston. Now this will be difficult to pinpoint at this point but I can see some parts of Virginia to New Jersey getting over 20 inches. As I expect an intense band of snow to form just to the northwest of the low pressure. As I'll be not surprised with the dynamics and character of the low pressure to have a partly cloudy skies right under the low pressure. So now we have talked about the snow potential what about wind and beach erosion. Winds will be pretty steady within the heavy snow band 20-30mph with some higher gust. Then as you get closer to the coast of N.C. up north to New Jersey I can see winds 30-40mph with gusts up to 60mph. This will likely cause some moderate beach erosion in these areas with lots of power outages. This is a major storm system in a very populated area but thankfully not a large expanding slow moving storm system. Here is the latest snowfall amount from one of the computer models.

If this wasn’t enough an even bigger and more widespread winter storm looks likely to develop by Christmas. Right now the models are having a hard time figuring out which path it will take, how strong it will be and how much cold air will be to the north of the low pressure. So I won’t use any of the model data but I will explain here briefly what I see happening next week. First off the GFS computer model and main model used for forecasts you see is absolutely awful right now with its forecast. Several things after a closer look don’t make much since with it’s handling of convection to height falls to handling Alberta Clipper ahead of the main energy coming out of the Pacific Northwest. So it wants to feedback and placing more energy ahead of the shortwave. This will pump way to much warm air in front of the developing low and makes the storm track way to far north. Looking at the ensembles and thinking back to previous scenarios I believe there is a chance of a low pressure developing and moving northeast into the Chicago area. I don’t believe that as some of the computer runs have been saying that the low develops across Kansas and races northeast into parts of Iowa. The cold air coming south behind the storm system and also the cold air laid down by the Alberta clipper a couple days earlier. Will not allow this to happen and will likely press the Baroclinic zone much further south. As we’ll likely see a nice pressing of the cold air and see a low pressure form across Oklahoma or even North Texas. The next tricky part and the ensembles or collection of models has two scenarios which I see to be legit. #1 the storm strengthens quickly across the Central and Southern Plains and moves northeast into Missouri and eventually into the Great Lakes as it weakens. As another low and ultimately the main low develops across the Southeast then really gets going as it deepens up the East Coast. #2 track and scenario is that the cold air presses south into the Southern Plains and weaker low presses east across Texas with a trough extending north into Missouri. As the main low gets going across parts of East Texas or Louisiana and deepens across the South. Then it would turn northeast as another major blizzard for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

Timing is the key to this storm as if the cold air presses east of the Rockies the storm track will be much further south and pressed eastward. The models will continue to pick up on the next storm system as it begins to understand the effects from storm #1. So don’t jump on the northward track and storm track west of Chicago. As I know the talk from here across parts of Oklahoma to my home state of Indiana to even parts of the Tennessee valley. That was getting excited for a possible white Christmas has all but stopped and given up. Don’t let your guard down people from Oklahoma to Tennessee to North Carolina and points north. This pattern is still there to produce a very large and disruptive winter storm from Wednesday to Saturday of this coming week. So don’t return those sleds you may have bought for the kids or yourself. =) Winter has arrived and it’s here to stay for a while.

Have a great weekend everyone!! Justin

Major Christmas Storm Looking More and More Likely

A very impressive pattern setting up that I have been tracking and talked about for the past month and a half. This pattern that I alluded to at the beginning of November is starting to set up as we head towards winter. So it only figures as we head into officially the winter season nature snow guns will be full blown. We tried to get into this pattern at the start of December but the seasonal changes weren't quite ready. No stopping it this time as the global weather pattern is really something we haven't seen across the lower 48 states in years. Which means for the Lower 48 is a very active and a strong cold trough in the east in later half of December that will retrograde into January.

Now later this week the first of three storms will cross the US in the next 10-12 days. Two storms in the run up before Christmas, including one around Christmas Day. The idea of the nation's most widespread white Christmas since 2002. The modeling (GFS) is pulling its trending west and is still having its feedback problems. So instead of the storm moving east and continuing right off the Carolina coast. I believe there will be a lot of 1-3 inch amts are likely from Missouri to the Mid-Atlantic States. With a heavier snows from interior Carolina to the Delmarva with a 3-6 inch swath into the weekend

At the least, a lot of 1-3inch amounts are likely from Missouri to the mid-Atlantic states with number one with heavier snow in the interior Carolinas to the Delmarva, with the possibility of amounts of 3-6 inches or more on the weekend all the way back to the big cities from DC to NYC and BOS with heavier amounts southeast of that. I expect to see the trend now starting from nothing two days ago from South Carolina northward to a full quick moving moderate size snowstorm up the coast.

Then next is Christmas week and the possible crimpling Christmas storm. First starting into the Pacific Northwest then diving southeast quickly with the Arctic front. These will then join up with the southern jet stream and develop a low pressure across Texas. This will help to produce snow, sleet and freezing rain to the north and heavy rains to the south. Right now I believe heavy snows are possible from the Southern Plains east to Ohio and Tennessee Valleys then northeast into the Mid-Atlantic. As by December 26th there will likely be a lot of the country under snow.

If this wasn't enough another storm will likely move just to the south of the previous storm track. As money in the bank scenario looks to take shape just before New Years. As the trough and polar vortex shifts west and stregthens the southern jet. Energy in the southwest comes out and snow could fall pretty far south with the newest addition of cold air by the year 2010.....Below is the current snow cover across the United States.

Major Winter Storm Still Expected

As mentioned over a month ago and have been talked about several times over the last week. A major blizzard is in the works but may be a little further north then I expected it to be. The missed forecast by me is because of the very strong high pressure in Canada being a little further north. So what this is doing or not doing I should say is dropping the front further south with a push of cold air. So the low pressure will likely come out of Colorado and ride the front/baroclinic zone east then northeast. There is a very strong jet stream with this system and besides the heavy snows there will likely be winds over 60mph in spots. Here is a couple graphics to show the path and the latest snowfall map by the GFS. I still think there is time to adjust the storm track a little further south. So the track of the low pressure from far northeast New Mexico east to far Northeast Oklahoma to Southwest Illinois(near St. Louis) northeast into Lower Michigan near Detroit.  What I still expect and has been forecasted is another low pressure to bomb out off the Northeast coast. Probably developing just off the North Carolina coast then hugging the coast as it deepens to the notheast.

Latest Thinking of First Significant Winter Storm Next Week

Good Thursday Morning:
The model can't handle the Western trough. The new 114 off the 6z, though farther east and weaker than the Calorevada bomb it had, is still wrong. Instead, the UKMET and Euro are in much better shape, as they do not overdo the cold air feedback over the Rockies that deepens this too much. Instead, they send a piece of it out through the Plains Sunday and through the Northeast Monday, driving the arctic boundary back to Texas and pushing cold air east through the Ohio Valley and Northeast. The escape of the energy, plus the colder boundary conditions, force the wave to develop over Texas.
In addition, the weaker Western system is flatter until it bombs out near the East Coast. So, no low cutting to the Great Lakes, but instead a storm running east-northeast out of Texas to near Huntington, W.Va. with a swath of heavy snows from the Texas Panhandle through much of the Midwest, and then north of the Mason-Dixon Line to interior southern New England. This storm should turn to rain on the coast, but the GFS is missing the boat, in my opinion, on the energy that comes out in front (1) the cold air that comes behind that (2) and the track of the storm, farther south (3) before it bombs out. This will be a major winter event, with beat-the-numbers cold behind it south through Texas, and then to the East Coast. My take is that the negative AO and NAO are taking over, and it's time to start taking this into account when looking at the modeling......Especially the GFS with it's nortorious feedback problems during El Nino years and the Western Ridge and split flow.

Afternoon Update: 2pm
Here is my latest thinking of snowfall and storm track from next Monday-Thursday. As this storm will have very cold air spilling down the Plains behind it. More on this to come as the models continue to come around to what the pattern is setup for. True Arctic air is no match for the warm air to the south and the models continue to not see this. There will be a some precip and snowfall across the Central Plains and Ohio Valley Monday into Tuesday prior to the main storm system.

Latest 18z GFS is starting to come on board now but we'll really start to understand the storm when it gets within 90 hrs.  Here is the map for Tuesday Eve at 7pm. Notice the Low pressure centered in Western Oklahoma about 100 miles further north then I'm expecting it. I also think the GFS is strengthening it too fast as it won't really start to deepen until it gets to Northern Texas then start moving northeast.

November one of the warmest on record

November ends as one of the warmest in over the last 10 years. Will December be just as cold as November was warm?

GFS & Other Computer Models continue to underestimate the cold dense air

Don't believe the GFS beyond 3 days in this pattern. The cold air wins early next week and temperatures now forecasted will likely be around 25 degrees colder. As mentioned a month ago I thought the pattern would create a good chance of accumulating snow the first 10 days of December. In my opinion snow is still very possible for Texoma next Tuesday and Wednesday. Currently the GFS and other models have been going back in forth for a possible winter storm coming out in the Southern Plains early next week. Right now i'll use the most popular model the GFS that a lot of the forecast you see come from. The latest and the last previous model runs have the Arctic front that is coming south this week. From Colorado east to parts of Kansas some where between I-70 and I-40. I believe this new shot of true Arctic air will be much more powerful and drive the front much further south. So far south I can see the front down by I-20 as a wave of low pressure from the West move along it Tuesday and Wednesday. Right now the phasing and other parameters will likely not let this crank up. However will be a pretty nice wave of low pressure that will move east northeast across the nation. Accumulating snow and some ice will break out across Oklahoma and Texas Tuesday and Wednesday. It's too early to speculate on amounts but this situation could produce significant accumulations for portions of the area. Behind the storm system the new Arctic air and new snow cover will likely set the stage for single digit low temperatures possibly across the Texas Panhandle, Kansas and Oklahoma. Looking further east the cold and snowy pattern will continue and will likely intensify by the second and third week in December. Here is the 12z GFS look at Tuesday afternoon in which you can see the blue line(snow line) well off to the north. I believe the cold air moves the front much further south at this time like mentioned earlier.

Models will trend colder and snowier for Oklahoma and North Texas. This also includes for places to the East as the cold weather is here to stay for a while.  Looking ahead for the next 10-14 days you can see it's looking awfully cold and very active so grab those snow shovels you Eastern Snow Geese. =)