Two Major Winter Storms On The Way....Hello Winter!

A nasty storm continues to crank up on this Friday afternoon in parts of the Southeast. This low pressure will continue to phase with the northern branch of the jet stream and deepen. Later on this evening the low pressure will be positioned off the South Carolina coast. Heavy snows will start to spread north into parts of Mid-Atlantic where snowfall rates will increase to near 1 to 2 inches per hour. These heavy snows will to continue to strengthen in bands with snowfall amounts up to 3 inches per hour possible by Saturday morning. As the low I believe will take a more northerly track compared to the model consensus of northeast. This will take place in my forecast once it hits the Cape off North Carolina and encounters the warm Gulf Stream. This will really wind up the storm and with centrifugal force allow the low pressure to drift north. Then as the storm starts to interact with some cooler water and max out. The storm will then turn right and drift northeast to follow the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream. This will likely be a crippling storm for parts of the I-95 corridor. A large swath of 10-16 inches of snow will stretch from Ashville, North Carolina north to Washington D.C. to Baltimore and Philly Then up NYC and Boston. Now this will be difficult to pinpoint at this point but I can see some parts of Virginia to New Jersey getting over 20 inches. As I expect an intense band of snow to form just to the northwest of the low pressure. As I'll be not surprised with the dynamics and character of the low pressure to have a partly cloudy skies right under the low pressure. So now we have talked about the snow potential what about wind and beach erosion. Winds will be pretty steady within the heavy snow band 20-30mph with some higher gust. Then as you get closer to the coast of N.C. up north to New Jersey I can see winds 30-40mph with gusts up to 60mph. This will likely cause some moderate beach erosion in these areas with lots of power outages. This is a major storm system in a very populated area but thankfully not a large expanding slow moving storm system. Here is the latest snowfall amount from one of the computer models.

If this wasn’t enough an even bigger and more widespread winter storm looks likely to develop by Christmas. Right now the models are having a hard time figuring out which path it will take, how strong it will be and how much cold air will be to the north of the low pressure. So I won’t use any of the model data but I will explain here briefly what I see happening next week. First off the GFS computer model and main model used for forecasts you see is absolutely awful right now with its forecast. Several things after a closer look don’t make much since with it’s handling of convection to height falls to handling Alberta Clipper ahead of the main energy coming out of the Pacific Northwest. So it wants to feedback and placing more energy ahead of the shortwave. This will pump way to much warm air in front of the developing low and makes the storm track way to far north. Looking at the ensembles and thinking back to previous scenarios I believe there is a chance of a low pressure developing and moving northeast into the Chicago area. I don’t believe that as some of the computer runs have been saying that the low develops across Kansas and races northeast into parts of Iowa. The cold air coming south behind the storm system and also the cold air laid down by the Alberta clipper a couple days earlier. Will not allow this to happen and will likely press the Baroclinic zone much further south. As we’ll likely see a nice pressing of the cold air and see a low pressure form across Oklahoma or even North Texas. The next tricky part and the ensembles or collection of models has two scenarios which I see to be legit. #1 the storm strengthens quickly across the Central and Southern Plains and moves northeast into Missouri and eventually into the Great Lakes as it weakens. As another low and ultimately the main low develops across the Southeast then really gets going as it deepens up the East Coast. #2 track and scenario is that the cold air presses south into the Southern Plains and weaker low presses east across Texas with a trough extending north into Missouri. As the main low gets going across parts of East Texas or Louisiana and deepens across the South. Then it would turn northeast as another major blizzard for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

Timing is the key to this storm as if the cold air presses east of the Rockies the storm track will be much further south and pressed eastward. The models will continue to pick up on the next storm system as it begins to understand the effects from storm #1. So don’t jump on the northward track and storm track west of Chicago. As I know the talk from here across parts of Oklahoma to my home state of Indiana to even parts of the Tennessee valley. That was getting excited for a possible white Christmas has all but stopped and given up. Don’t let your guard down people from Oklahoma to Tennessee to North Carolina and points north. This pattern is still there to produce a very large and disruptive winter storm from Wednesday to Saturday of this coming week. So don’t return those sleds you may have bought for the kids or yourself. =) Winter has arrived and it’s here to stay for a while.

Have a great weekend everyone!! Justin