GFS & Other Computer Models continue to underestimate the cold dense air

Don't believe the GFS beyond 3 days in this pattern. The cold air wins early next week and temperatures now forecasted will likely be around 25 degrees colder. As mentioned a month ago I thought the pattern would create a good chance of accumulating snow the first 10 days of December. In my opinion snow is still very possible for Texoma next Tuesday and Wednesday. Currently the GFS and other models have been going back in forth for a possible winter storm coming out in the Southern Plains early next week. Right now i'll use the most popular model the GFS that a lot of the forecast you see come from. The latest and the last previous model runs have the Arctic front that is coming south this week. From Colorado east to parts of Kansas some where between I-70 and I-40. I believe this new shot of true Arctic air will be much more powerful and drive the front much further south. So far south I can see the front down by I-20 as a wave of low pressure from the West move along it Tuesday and Wednesday. Right now the phasing and other parameters will likely not let this crank up. However will be a pretty nice wave of low pressure that will move east northeast across the nation. Accumulating snow and some ice will break out across Oklahoma and Texas Tuesday and Wednesday. It's too early to speculate on amounts but this situation could produce significant accumulations for portions of the area. Behind the storm system the new Arctic air and new snow cover will likely set the stage for single digit low temperatures possibly across the Texas Panhandle, Kansas and Oklahoma. Looking further east the cold and snowy pattern will continue and will likely intensify by the second and third week in December. Here is the 12z GFS look at Tuesday afternoon in which you can see the blue line(snow line) well off to the north. I believe the cold air moves the front much further south at this time like mentioned earlier.

Models will trend colder and snowier for Oklahoma and North Texas. This also includes for places to the East as the cold weather is here to stay for a while.  Looking ahead for the next 10-14 days you can see it's looking awfully cold and very active so grab those snow shovels you Eastern Snow Geese. =)