Major Christmas Storm Looking More and More Likely

A very impressive pattern setting up that I have been tracking and talked about for the past month and a half. This pattern that I alluded to at the beginning of November is starting to set up as we head towards winter. So it only figures as we head into officially the winter season nature snow guns will be full blown. We tried to get into this pattern at the start of December but the seasonal changes weren't quite ready. No stopping it this time as the global weather pattern is really something we haven't seen across the lower 48 states in years. Which means for the Lower 48 is a very active and a strong cold trough in the east in later half of December that will retrograde into January.

Now later this week the first of three storms will cross the US in the next 10-12 days. Two storms in the run up before Christmas, including one around Christmas Day. The idea of the nation's most widespread white Christmas since 2002. The modeling (GFS) is pulling its trending west and is still having its feedback problems. So instead of the storm moving east and continuing right off the Carolina coast. I believe there will be a lot of 1-3 inch amts are likely from Missouri to the Mid-Atlantic States. With a heavier snows from interior Carolina to the Delmarva with a 3-6 inch swath into the weekend

At the least, a lot of 1-3inch amounts are likely from Missouri to the mid-Atlantic states with number one with heavier snow in the interior Carolinas to the Delmarva, with the possibility of amounts of 3-6 inches or more on the weekend all the way back to the big cities from DC to NYC and BOS with heavier amounts southeast of that. I expect to see the trend now starting from nothing two days ago from South Carolina northward to a full quick moving moderate size snowstorm up the coast.

Then next is Christmas week and the possible crimpling Christmas storm. First starting into the Pacific Northwest then diving southeast quickly with the Arctic front. These will then join up with the southern jet stream and develop a low pressure across Texas. This will help to produce snow, sleet and freezing rain to the north and heavy rains to the south. Right now I believe heavy snows are possible from the Southern Plains east to Ohio and Tennessee Valleys then northeast into the Mid-Atlantic. As by December 26th there will likely be a lot of the country under snow.

If this wasn't enough another storm will likely move just to the south of the previous storm track. As money in the bank scenario looks to take shape just before New Years. As the trough and polar vortex shifts west and stregthens the southern jet. Energy in the southwest comes out and snow could fall pretty far south with the newest addition of cold air by the year 2010.....Below is the current snow cover across the United States.

Major Winter Storm Still Expected

As mentioned over a month ago and have been talked about several times over the last week. A major blizzard is in the works but may be a little further north then I expected it to be. The missed forecast by me is because of the very strong high pressure in Canada being a little further north. So what this is doing or not doing I should say is dropping the front further south with a push of cold air. So the low pressure will likely come out of Colorado and ride the front/baroclinic zone east then northeast. There is a very strong jet stream with this system and besides the heavy snows there will likely be winds over 60mph in spots. Here is a couple graphics to show the path and the latest snowfall map by the GFS. I still think there is time to adjust the storm track a little further south. So the track of the low pressure from far northeast New Mexico east to far Northeast Oklahoma to Southwest Illinois(near St. Louis) northeast into Lower Michigan near Detroit.  What I still expect and has been forecasted is another low pressure to bomb out off the Northeast coast. Probably developing just off the North Carolina coast then hugging the coast as it deepens to the notheast.

Latest Thinking of First Significant Winter Storm Next Week

Good Thursday Morning:
The model can't handle the Western trough. The new 114 off the 6z, though farther east and weaker than the Calorevada bomb it had, is still wrong. Instead, the UKMET and Euro are in much better shape, as they do not overdo the cold air feedback over the Rockies that deepens this too much. Instead, they send a piece of it out through the Plains Sunday and through the Northeast Monday, driving the arctic boundary back to Texas and pushing cold air east through the Ohio Valley and Northeast. The escape of the energy, plus the colder boundary conditions, force the wave to develop over Texas.
In addition, the weaker Western system is flatter until it bombs out near the East Coast. So, no low cutting to the Great Lakes, but instead a storm running east-northeast out of Texas to near Huntington, W.Va. with a swath of heavy snows from the Texas Panhandle through much of the Midwest, and then north of the Mason-Dixon Line to interior southern New England. This storm should turn to rain on the coast, but the GFS is missing the boat, in my opinion, on the energy that comes out in front (1) the cold air that comes behind that (2) and the track of the storm, farther south (3) before it bombs out. This will be a major winter event, with beat-the-numbers cold behind it south through Texas, and then to the East Coast. My take is that the negative AO and NAO are taking over, and it's time to start taking this into account when looking at the modeling......Especially the GFS with it's nortorious feedback problems during El Nino years and the Western Ridge and split flow.

Afternoon Update: 2pm
Here is my latest thinking of snowfall and storm track from next Monday-Thursday. As this storm will have very cold air spilling down the Plains behind it. More on this to come as the models continue to come around to what the pattern is setup for. True Arctic air is no match for the warm air to the south and the models continue to not see this. There will be a some precip and snowfall across the Central Plains and Ohio Valley Monday into Tuesday prior to the main storm system.

Latest 18z GFS is starting to come on board now but we'll really start to understand the storm when it gets within 90 hrs.  Here is the map for Tuesday Eve at 7pm. Notice the Low pressure centered in Western Oklahoma about 100 miles further north then I'm expecting it. I also think the GFS is strengthening it too fast as it won't really start to deepen until it gets to Northern Texas then start moving northeast.

November one of the warmest on record

November ends as one of the warmest in over the last 10 years. Will December be just as cold as November was warm?

GFS & Other Computer Models continue to underestimate the cold dense air

Don't believe the GFS beyond 3 days in this pattern. The cold air wins early next week and temperatures now forecasted will likely be around 25 degrees colder. As mentioned a month ago I thought the pattern would create a good chance of accumulating snow the first 10 days of December. In my opinion snow is still very possible for Texoma next Tuesday and Wednesday. Currently the GFS and other models have been going back in forth for a possible winter storm coming out in the Southern Plains early next week. Right now i'll use the most popular model the GFS that a lot of the forecast you see come from. The latest and the last previous model runs have the Arctic front that is coming south this week. From Colorado east to parts of Kansas some where between I-70 and I-40. I believe this new shot of true Arctic air will be much more powerful and drive the front much further south. So far south I can see the front down by I-20 as a wave of low pressure from the West move along it Tuesday and Wednesday. Right now the phasing and other parameters will likely not let this crank up. However will be a pretty nice wave of low pressure that will move east northeast across the nation. Accumulating snow and some ice will break out across Oklahoma and Texas Tuesday and Wednesday. It's too early to speculate on amounts but this situation could produce significant accumulations for portions of the area. Behind the storm system the new Arctic air and new snow cover will likely set the stage for single digit low temperatures possibly across the Texas Panhandle, Kansas and Oklahoma. Looking further east the cold and snowy pattern will continue and will likely intensify by the second and third week in December. Here is the 12z GFS look at Tuesday afternoon in which you can see the blue line(snow line) well off to the north. I believe the cold air moves the front much further south at this time like mentioned earlier.

Models will trend colder and snowier for Oklahoma and North Texas. This also includes for places to the East as the cold weather is here to stay for a while.  Looking ahead for the next 10-14 days you can see it's looking awfully cold and very active so grab those snow shovels you Eastern Snow Geese. =)

Winter is on the way...December coldest since the year 2000

Here comes the cold air as December from the Rockies to the East Coast looks very cold. As the Ohio Valley and Great lakes could be the coldest since the year 2000. With an active southern track that will likely produce accumulating snow by the end of the year. In such places as Abliene, Texas to Dallas to Shreveport, La to Birmingham, Al to Atlanta, Ga. The Arctic air arrives late next week with a possible winter storm from Texas to the East Coast.