Tropical & Severe Weather Update

First lets talk about the tropics as hurricane Bill continues to be a powerful storm. Now a Cat 4 hurricane with 135mph sustained winds. WNW movement has continued by as you see below the models and the NHC continue to predict a northward turn. I'm still very worried for the Northeast coast Sunday and Monday. As any job to the west from the storm will put them in Hurricane force winds. That includes the city of Boston that is looking at a lot of rain from a frontal boundary. Then as Bill gets closer increasing winds and rain, how much that is still to be seen. Ana is no more and any life to her yesterday was sheared apart by the upper level low. Still lots of heat energy in the Gulf of Mexico with improving upper level conditions for now. However the upper levels become more southwest as the trough now across the Northern Plains swings to the south. Still watching closely but at this time it looks like I was wrong about redevelopment in the Gulf.

Now to a more current issue across the lower 48 states is severe weather. Currently one tornado watch posted but another one may be posted soon across parts of Oklahoma. Here is the latest SPC outlook for severe weather for this evening. Two main areas of concern are across Illinois with a broken line of severe t'storms. The second hot spot is from southwest Oklahoma north to southern parts of Kansas. This area will likely light up with severe t'storms some being super cells capable of producing large hail and a isolated tornado.

As you can see the Severe threat continues tomorrow into the Ohio Vallery and southern Mississippi Valley. Main threat will be more damaging winds and some hail then tornadoes.

Strong cold front and trough continues to surge its way south. As much cooler and drier weather takes over from the Plains east to the East Coast by early next week. So if you live especially along and east of the Mississippi river. Prepare yourself for some cool nights and mild to warm afternoons.

Quick Tropical Update-Ana and Bill

Bill continues to turn its way across the Atlantic currently affecting no one right now. Here is the latest list of computer runs over the next several days.

The track takes it northwest over the next 24 to 48hrs then north west of Bermuda and east of the United States. It's currently a Cat 2 Hurricane with 105 sustained winds. This is forecasted to become a Cat 3 and maybe a weak Cat 4 in the next 48 to 72 hours. So Hurricane Bill will likely become the first major hurricane of the Atlantic hurricane season. This intensity with such a warm core will fight off the trough as it slides into the weakness across the Atlantic. So its bares watching on whether the trough makes Bill turn north or just northwest. If it doesn't turn north by 70 west then look out New England!

Now for more of a immediate threat to the U.S. is what was previously tropical storm Ana. I don't understand why the NHC is downplaying the remains of Ana. The map below is from the National Hurricane Center. The yellow hatched area over eastern Cuba is for low probability. In which they say regeneration is unlikely over the next 48 hours.

Ya the circulation pretty much vanished yesterday but the wave with thunderstorms is still there. The heat energy is still there just spread out and to make it even more interesting its negatively tilted. Now this is why I think there is a 2 to 3 chance of this becoming at least a minimal tropical storm. Currently a upper level low is anchored just to the southwest of the remains northeast of Cuba. Over the next 24 hours this upper low will continue to ventilate t'storms as a upper level ridge sits to the north. By Thursday afternoon the remains will be in the southeast Gulf of Mexico. The upper level low will then weaken and be moving away from the remains. This will allow the southern side of the t'storms to begin developing around the low. Looking at the upper levels according to the models, an upper level ridge will strengthen right over top. This is when I believe Ana comes back to life with a fast development to tropical storm strength. Now going beyond that I'll wait to see if things start developing and lining up. I will say that the Gulf is primed for quick development and a storm to become an hurricane within 36 hours. Something to definitely watch over the next 48-72 hours in the Gulf of Mexico.

Newly formed Tropical Depression in Gulf of Mexico

Just as mentioned yesterday a tropical depression has formed in the northeast Gulf of Mexico. This depression will likely be named Claudette and become a tropical storm in the next NHC update. For the latest information from the National Hurricane Center click here.

This storm will likely make landfall at a moderate tropical storm with sustained winds around 55mph. As the Gulf Coast is a little lucky the forward momentum is still pretty quick at around 16 mph. Landfall will likely be later this evening with some gusty winds but the main threat will be torrential rains. Apalachicola,Florida looks to be pretty close to where Claudette will make landfall. Main threats will be some gusty winds just east of the center. However winds will be in a very small area and for the most part not damaging. Tornado threat will increase across Florida and eventually across Alabama and Georgia. Torrential rains causing some flooding is likely as up to 8 to 10 inches of rain will be possible.

Pre-Winter Forecast and Tropical Outlook

First lets talk briefly about the tropics and the current pattern. MJO is going into a phase that will be with us for about two weeks. That favors upward motions for the Gulf and western Atlantic ocean. You can see the MJO is proven its faithfulness as we now have two weak tropical storms. In which there environments will improve over the next couple of days. So I expect both of them to continue to develop as they head west. Bill will likely be the strongest as Ana is just struggling with the very dry air around her. An even bigger complex of storms is about to come off of Africa by Sunday. This could be Claudette by mid week however I'm watching something closer to home. That is the eastern Gulf of Mexico as a weak low pressure is forming. Looking at the water vapor, RUC analysis and IR satellite. I believe this bad boy is trying to tighten up a little and will need to be watched. The eastern gulf with the current synoptic weather pattern and very warm waters. Is very conducive for fast developing tropical lows as it continues to head northwestward. So something to watch over the next 48 hours as it will likely hit land within 60 hours from now.

So even though the tropics are really coming alive this is just a quick sprint. By the start of September and typically the busies time for the Atlantic hurricane season. Things will likely be very quiet with maybe a fast developing storms off the eastern seaboard. As the MJO will be a cycle promoting sinking air all across the Atlantic.

Now if you're curious about what winter has in store for you. I must warn you right now, if you're not a cold weather lover stop reading. I'm really starting to find some similarities and analogs to some really cold and snowy winters. Especially if you live in the eastern half of the United States. The CFC actually doesn't believe me I guess as you can see they have it very warm.

I believe that Alaska and the western Canada are above normal temperatures. As the upper levels promote high pressure to form over central Canada. This will supply very cold air masses across the eastern third of the U.S. This will be forced south by the ridge on the west coast and screaming jet underneath from California to North Carolina. Producing some pretty significant storms from the southern Plains to the Northeast. So in short Warmer than normal far northwest to colder than normal from Arkansas to north Carolina northeastward to New England. This is just the start of predicting the winter forecast. So some adjustments could be made before my annual winter prediction on Nov. 1st. For now just enjoy the warm summer temperatures and those warm breezes.

Have a great weekend!