Quick Tropical Update-Ana and Bill

Bill continues to turn its way across the Atlantic currently affecting no one right now. Here is the latest list of computer runs over the next several days.

The track takes it northwest over the next 24 to 48hrs then north west of Bermuda and east of the United States. It's currently a Cat 2 Hurricane with 105 sustained winds. This is forecasted to become a Cat 3 and maybe a weak Cat 4 in the next 48 to 72 hours. So Hurricane Bill will likely become the first major hurricane of the Atlantic hurricane season. This intensity with such a warm core will fight off the trough as it slides into the weakness across the Atlantic. So its bares watching on whether the trough makes Bill turn north or just northwest. If it doesn't turn north by 70 west then look out New England!

Now for more of a immediate threat to the U.S. is what was previously tropical storm Ana. I don't understand why the NHC is downplaying the remains of Ana. The map below is from the National Hurricane Center. The yellow hatched area over eastern Cuba is for low probability. In which they say regeneration is unlikely over the next 48 hours.

Ya the circulation pretty much vanished yesterday but the wave with thunderstorms is still there. The heat energy is still there just spread out and to make it even more interesting its negatively tilted. Now this is why I think there is a 2 to 3 chance of this becoming at least a minimal tropical storm. Currently a upper level low is anchored just to the southwest of the remains northeast of Cuba. Over the next 24 hours this upper low will continue to ventilate t'storms as a upper level ridge sits to the north. By Thursday afternoon the remains will be in the southeast Gulf of Mexico. The upper level low will then weaken and be moving away from the remains. This will allow the southern side of the t'storms to begin developing around the low. Looking at the upper levels according to the models, an upper level ridge will strengthen right over top. This is when I believe Ana comes back to life with a fast development to tropical storm strength. Now going beyond that I'll wait to see if things start developing and lining up. I will say that the Gulf is primed for quick development and a storm to become an hurricane within 36 hours. Something to definitely watch over the next 48-72 hours in the Gulf of Mexico.