Pre-Winter Forecast and Tropical Outlook

First lets talk briefly about the tropics and the current pattern. MJO is going into a phase that will be with us for about two weeks. That favors upward motions for the Gulf and western Atlantic ocean. You can see the MJO is proven its faithfulness as we now have two weak tropical storms. In which there environments will improve over the next couple of days. So I expect both of them to continue to develop as they head west. Bill will likely be the strongest as Ana is just struggling with the very dry air around her. An even bigger complex of storms is about to come off of Africa by Sunday. This could be Claudette by mid week however I'm watching something closer to home. That is the eastern Gulf of Mexico as a weak low pressure is forming. Looking at the water vapor, RUC analysis and IR satellite. I believe this bad boy is trying to tighten up a little and will need to be watched. The eastern gulf with the current synoptic weather pattern and very warm waters. Is very conducive for fast developing tropical lows as it continues to head northwestward. So something to watch over the next 48 hours as it will likely hit land within 60 hours from now.

So even though the tropics are really coming alive this is just a quick sprint. By the start of September and typically the busies time for the Atlantic hurricane season. Things will likely be very quiet with maybe a fast developing storms off the eastern seaboard. As the MJO will be a cycle promoting sinking air all across the Atlantic.

Now if you're curious about what winter has in store for you. I must warn you right now, if you're not a cold weather lover stop reading. I'm really starting to find some similarities and analogs to some really cold and snowy winters. Especially if you live in the eastern half of the United States. The CFC actually doesn't believe me I guess as you can see they have it very warm.

I believe that Alaska and the western Canada are above normal temperatures. As the upper levels promote high pressure to form over central Canada. This will supply very cold air masses across the eastern third of the U.S. This will be forced south by the ridge on the west coast and screaming jet underneath from California to North Carolina. Producing some pretty significant storms from the southern Plains to the Northeast. So in short Warmer than normal far northwest to colder than normal from Arkansas to north Carolina northeastward to New England. This is just the start of predicting the winter forecast. So some adjustments could be made before my annual winter prediction on Nov. 1st. For now just enjoy the warm summer temperatures and those warm breezes.

Have a great weekend!