Significant Snow Storm for the East Later This Week?

During the previous week, several analogs and even the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center have mentioned the upcoming pattern very similar to a major winter storm late in the Fall of 1950. This crippling storm knocked out power to more than 1,000,000 customers during this event. In all, the storm impacted 22 states, killing 353, and creating US$66.7 million in damage (1950 dollars).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Appalachian_Storm_of_November_1950

By no means does this future system look to be as powerful as the 1950 storm but it does have several similarities in the overall pattern. So this would mean a significant snow and wind for portions of the Ohio valley into the Northeast. Models continue produce a major storm system for the upcoming weekend. However the storm track, strength and speed of the system continues to change. Here are the four long range models for 120 hours and 144 hours. Notice the differences but also the similarities of producing a major storm system across the eastern third of the nation.

 

     

                                        

 Right now I like the look of the GFS and Japanese model based on the track and blocking across Greenland. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) continues to be negative indicative of a continued trough across the East coast. So the low pressure should continue to track east instead of really turning north as it strengthens. Looking back at previous storm tracks in this pattern from the Pacific Northwest into the Nebraska area. The mean track is generally from Nebraska to Indiana into New Jersey. Most are generally fairly weak low pressure however the strongest storms have been in La Nina winters and with strong blocking across Greenland. So that is why i'm agreeing with the models that have been indicating a sub 990 low.

Right now I believe the heaviest snow greater than 6 inches with a greater than a foot and a half within this swath.Will run from the I-80 corridor from central Iowa east to northern Illinois including Chicago. Then from Illinois into Ohio the heaviest snow will likely expand south to the I-70 corridor. This will include Champaign to Indianapolis to Columbus and points to the north into Michigan. The winds will continue to increase as this storm deepens as it drifts southeast into Ohio. Causing lots of drifting snow, blinding visibilities and plummeting temperatures. Many changes to come over the next several days with storm track and strength.....The snow/rain line will continue to change north/south/east/west but this gives an idea of whats COULD come into your area by this weekend.

Let the fun begin! I'll keep you posted on the latest and will put an actual snowfall prediction out on Thursday.

Justin 

Better Get Those Xmas Lights Up Now...

Here comes the Arctic Chill as forecasted earlier this month on here...See Forecast Post

Per NAO and AO as you can see below which would indicate arctic intrusion and trough in the east.

And it looks like this will continue into the start of December as higher pressures in Alaska continues the arctic slide south with the NAO staying negative.

Looking towards Thanksgiving week, an arctic wave drifting south will meet up with an Pacific system. This will likely pull the bitterly cold air sitting to the north southward. As a wave of low pressure or a couple waves slides along the front while the cold air drifts south and east. Models continue to disagree on the evolution of cold air and storm system. However it looks like you definitely need to get those Christmas lights up if you live in the east. The cold is coming and looks to be sticking around for a while as the month of December looks pretty cold from the Mississippi river east.

Here are examples of the two main long range models the GFS(US Model) and the EURO( European). Right now I believe the 500mb pattern looks better on the Euro than the GFS. The GFS is sending too much energy ahead of the main trough (feedback). This will in turn help pump the ridge across the southeast and help phase the jet streams to dig in the trough as it slides east.

 

Trust me I'm tracking this closely because Laura and I will be flying on Thanksgiving day back to Indy. 

The Cold Builds to the North as Active Jet Stream Moves In

As mentioned last week, an active pattern is setting up across the central portion of the US. Current temperatures during the warmest part of the day are quite cold across Canada as you can see below.

This build up of cold air is just asking to be sent south and some will over the next couple of weeks. The kicker will be an active jet stream and low pressure across the interior west of the United States. The cold air looks to come down in waves so will likely modify some as it heads south. So portions of the central Plains could see snow falling by this upcoming weekend (north of I-70).

As several areas of low pressure come out of the west and head east/northeast towards the Great Lakes. Producing rain and some storms from the Southern Plains northeast into the Great Lakes region. Now this will just be the first of likely 3 or 4 storms over the next two weeks. Each one producing heavy rains but each one will likely press the snow line to the south. Right now the ensembles and long range models continue to point to a very cold(relative to average) mid month and Thanksgiving week across most of the US.

So anyone from the Texas Panhandle to Louisville to New York City and points to the north better be on guard for shoveling snow by Thanksgiving week. Places east of the Mississippi will likely see the real cold air not arrive till Thanksgiving week. So here comes the cold air as it will likely feel like late December in the third week of November. So I warned you and you better get those thermal long johns ready.

Here is the latest 8-14 day analomy and the latest 8-14 day outlook from CPC

Here Comes Winter....With A Sneak Peak This Weekend

The first nor'easter of the year is about to develop across the East as cold modified air rushes in from Canada. This will likely produce the first snow flurries all across the Ohio Valley and eventually as far south as the Appalachians and into the interior Northeast.


What I have my eyes on is a developing cold air mass in NW Canada and Pacific Jet stream that will likely buckle by mid month. As we could see our first major snowstorm of the year from the Central Plains and East into the Mid-Atlantic. Followed by freezing temperatures into the south from Texas to Georgia as temperatures could be in the single digits to teens across the north. Right now the time of arrival for this first major bout of winter looks to arrive between the 13th-16th of the month. Below is first the latest ensemble run of the 500mb anomaly and the latest 8-14 anomaly composite.

Historic Storm Continues to Deepen!

This is a storm now stronger than the infamous "Edmund Fitzgerald" storm in Nov. 1975 and an even stronger version almost exactly 23 years after that in Nov. 1998. Its central pressure is also on par with the infamous Superstorm of 1993, and is lower than the last 4 hurricanes of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. Currently the pressure is down to 957mb which puts it second on the list of lowest pressure ever in this part of the region. To reach number one it will have to fall another 7 millibars to beat the Great Ohio Blizzard of 1978. Forecast show it reaching 955mb before starting to fill back in.

Here is a map of all the currents wa

It continues to spawn numerous severe t'storms with damaging winds and tornadoes from Ohio and Pennsylvania south to Mississippi,Alabama and Georgia. Here is the latest map of all the storm reports so far.  

This threat will continue well into the evening as the low pressure finally starts to weaken and move into southern Canada.

Life Threatening Event Unfolding Across Ohio Valley

SPC Now has a large portion of Indiana under a High Risk for later this morning. As a large line of severe t'storms continue to race to the east across Illinois currently. This will meet up with increasingly warm and moist air as the morning wears on. Creating a very potent and a potentially life threatening situation with damaging winds and strong tornadoes looking likely. I'll have more details later this morning when I get time. I'm currently watching this from work but am very impressed by some of the parameters I'm looking at. These storms will be rocketing along at over 60 mph and the high winds/tornadoes will be surrounded by heavy rains making them nearly impossible to see. BE CAREFUL AND PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST WARNINGS!