Significant Snow Storm for the East Later This Week?

During the previous week, several analogs and even the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center have mentioned the upcoming pattern very similar to a major winter storm late in the Fall of 1950. This crippling storm knocked out power to more than 1,000,000 customers during this event. In all, the storm impacted 22 states, killing 353, and creating US$66.7 million in damage (1950 dollars).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Appalachian_Storm_of_November_1950

By no means does this future system look to be as powerful as the 1950 storm but it does have several similarities in the overall pattern. So this would mean a significant snow and wind for portions of the Ohio valley into the Northeast. Models continue produce a major storm system for the upcoming weekend. However the storm track, strength and speed of the system continues to change. Here are the four long range models for 120 hours and 144 hours. Notice the differences but also the similarities of producing a major storm system across the eastern third of the nation.

 

     

                                        

 Right now I like the look of the GFS and Japanese model based on the track and blocking across Greenland. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) continues to be negative indicative of a continued trough across the East coast. So the low pressure should continue to track east instead of really turning north as it strengthens. Looking back at previous storm tracks in this pattern from the Pacific Northwest into the Nebraska area. The mean track is generally from Nebraska to Indiana into New Jersey. Most are generally fairly weak low pressure however the strongest storms have been in La Nina winters and with strong blocking across Greenland. So that is why i'm agreeing with the models that have been indicating a sub 990 low.

Right now I believe the heaviest snow greater than 6 inches with a greater than a foot and a half within this swath.Will run from the I-80 corridor from central Iowa east to northern Illinois including Chicago. Then from Illinois into Ohio the heaviest snow will likely expand south to the I-70 corridor. This will include Champaign to Indianapolis to Columbus and points to the north into Michigan. The winds will continue to increase as this storm deepens as it drifts southeast into Ohio. Causing lots of drifting snow, blinding visibilities and plummeting temperatures. Many changes to come over the next several days with storm track and strength.....The snow/rain line will continue to change north/south/east/west but this gives an idea of whats COULD come into your area by this weekend.

Let the fun begin! I'll keep you posted on the latest and will put an actual snowfall prediction out on Thursday.

Justin