What does the next 30 and 90 days have in store for us?

These graphics are from the Climate Prediction Center which came out today. Definitely agree on the cooler than average temperatures east of the Rockies the next 30 days. The southern jet stream will be very active through early spring. So you can expect wet weather from California to Carolina and an active pattern. I also believe that parts of the I-20 corridor from Texas to Georgia could not be done with the ice and snow. We'll see but here are a couple things to chew on until I get back in town next week.

Have a great weekend!

Justin

Welcome to the website Chasing The Meso (Under the influence of Mother Nature)

Hello and welcome to my website if you're here for the first time. This website is designed to provide medium and long range forecasts during active weather across the Central and Eastern US. Plus during spring and summer seasons I’ll post severe weather forecasts and blog my chasing adventures. So feel free to look around and check out my prior chases over the last couple of years.

Currently I'm in the process of reorganizing and better preparing for this upcoming storm season. So expect some changes coming in the next month and better chase summaries.

Thanks again for taking a look at my website and have a great day!

Justin Rudicel

Despite the warmer weather another winter storm is on the way!

The January thaw is underway as temperatures will finally crack the freezing mark for much of the lower 48 states by mid week. Below is the high temperatures map forecasted by the GFS on Thursday afternoon.

Besides the nice warm up a significant winter storm is on the way to traverse the southern United States and up the East coast. A strong upper level storm will start to develop as it crashes into the desert southwest and into southwest Texas by mid week. This will help develop an area of low pressure just off the Gulf coast of Texas by Thursday night. Developing rain all across the east parts of Texas into Louisiana. By Friday the rain spreads further north and as the upper level matures and cools. The rain will change to snow across portions of the Texas Panhandle, Oklahoma and parts of Northern Texas by Saturday morning. The low pressure path based on how I interpret the upper level pattern across North America and the latest ensemble packages will start in south Texas. Then head east into the northern Gulf then northeast up the west side of the Appalachian Mountains. A transfer of energy will likely occur from the original low pressure in eastern Kentucky to a new low pressure off the North Carolina coast. This will likely be a heavy precipitation maker with a strip of heavy snows on the north side. The bitterly cold temperatures and strong winds will likely be missing so I’m not expecting blizzard conditions. Right now accumulating snows will likely break out from around Amarillo and Abilene then run northeast into parts of Oklahoma and far northern Texas into Arkansas on Friday. The snow will likely become a little heavier and a little more widespread across parts of the Ohio and north Tennessee Valley by Saturday. This will eventually head into the Mid-Atlantic and probably interior northeast west of I-95 by late weekend.

Now this is just a rough outline of a possible storm system that is over 5 days from even starting to develop. So there are still tons of questions about the upcoming storm system. However after looking at the pattern and ensembles I’m pretty confident about a significant storm coming out of the Gulf by late week. This could put down greater then 6 inches of snow in Ohio Valley and into the interior northeast by the weekend.

I’ll have more as the week goes on.

Have a great Sunday! Justin

Winter's Coldest on the Way

The Siberian Express is on the way to the US with a nasty snow storm in front of it. Models and Mets are starting to catch up to this winter storm. That will produce a large swath of 4-8 inch some higher amounts of wind blown snows from the Central Plains east to the Ohio and tennessee Valley then into the Mid Atlantic. This snow will be combined with falling temperatures and winds gusting over 35mph. As the coldest temperatures in over a decade works its way in the US east of the Rockies

This will be a wind whipped snow storm with temperatures falling through the teens. As visibilities will be reduced to near zero at times with wind chills dipping below zero. This is a very dangerous winter storm and the dangerous will continue after the snowfall starts. With temperatures falling well below zero in many hours of the Plains and even into the Ohio and Tennessee valley.  Orange crops in southern Texas and especially Florida are in big trouble. Temperatures by Friday and Saturday night could be well into the middle 20s are far south as central Florida. Hope Mickey Mouse has Minnie or a nice sweater to kick him warm.

Records will fall and Mickey mouse will be shivering.


Have a great Evening!  Justin

Christmas Blizzard and A Possible Severe Weather Outbreak Is On The Way

Well is this weather pattern busy enough for you? This pattern should be of no surprise since it was advertised and predicted since early November on here. So here we go again with another winter storm just like we experience about two weeks ago. As a low pressure develops on the newest surge of arctic air working it’s way south. On Friday I posted about the two scenarios based on the pattern and model data. It’s looking like Storm path #1 is the model choice with some tweaking from me.

Wednesday an area of low pressure will develop around Lubbock, Texas and work its way towards far southeast Oklahoma. This is when the trough goes negative and the models and I expect a bomb genesis of the low pressure to occur. As the low pressure goes from a 1003mb low near W.F. to 989 mb low near Springfield, Missouri. Then will start to fill back in as it occludes and drifts north into far northwest Illinois.

Now before I get to the snow I want to make sure people know about the severe weather possibilities. I’m starting to get pretty concerned about a mini tornado outbreak across portions of eastern Texas. By Wednesday evening the low really starts to strengthen and winds really start to pick up and turn with height. The area of concern will be from I-35 in Texas from Dallas to San Antonio eastward. The potential will continue overnight into southwestern Arkansas and into Louisiana. This will continues Thursday across the Mississippi Valley with the threat of Damaging winds and isolated Tornadoes. Here is the latest SPC outlook for Wednesday.

As the upper level low matures the cold air will really start to filter in behind the storm by Wednesday night. It will change the wrap around moisture into moderate to occasionally heavy snow across portions of Western Oklahoma into parts of Kansas. This will continue to drift north and slowly east into Kansas, Iowa, Eastern Nebraska and far Northwest Missouri by Christmas eve evening. The swath of the heaviest snows will likely run from Northwest Oklahoma to western Kansas to central and eastern Nebraska and a good portion of Iowa. Parts of Kansas, Iowa and Nebraska will likely have over a of foot of wind blown snow. As temperatures fall into the teens with wind chills to near zero.

I’ll have more on this over the next couple of days as this is a big time winter storm. As it will affect flights and driving conditions across a good portion of the country during the Christmas. If this wasn’t enough you should see what I have in the cards for New Year’s week. From California to Carolina could be seeing snow as southern mauler could be in the works. Right before the coldest Arctic air enough that make penguins shiver moves in the first 10 days of the year 2010.

Good night- Justin

Two Major Winter Storms On The Way....Hello Winter!

A nasty storm continues to crank up on this Friday afternoon in parts of the Southeast. This low pressure will continue to phase with the northern branch of the jet stream and deepen. Later on this evening the low pressure will be positioned off the South Carolina coast. Heavy snows will start to spread north into parts of Mid-Atlantic where snowfall rates will increase to near 1 to 2 inches per hour. These heavy snows will to continue to strengthen in bands with snowfall amounts up to 3 inches per hour possible by Saturday morning. As the low I believe will take a more northerly track compared to the model consensus of northeast. This will take place in my forecast once it hits the Cape off North Carolina and encounters the warm Gulf Stream. This will really wind up the storm and with centrifugal force allow the low pressure to drift north. Then as the storm starts to interact with some cooler water and max out. The storm will then turn right and drift northeast to follow the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream. This will likely be a crippling storm for parts of the I-95 corridor. A large swath of 10-16 inches of snow will stretch from Ashville, North Carolina north to Washington D.C. to Baltimore and Philly Then up NYC and Boston. Now this will be difficult to pinpoint at this point but I can see some parts of Virginia to New Jersey getting over 20 inches. As I expect an intense band of snow to form just to the northwest of the low pressure. As I'll be not surprised with the dynamics and character of the low pressure to have a partly cloudy skies right under the low pressure. So now we have talked about the snow potential what about wind and beach erosion. Winds will be pretty steady within the heavy snow band 20-30mph with some higher gust. Then as you get closer to the coast of N.C. up north to New Jersey I can see winds 30-40mph with gusts up to 60mph. This will likely cause some moderate beach erosion in these areas with lots of power outages. This is a major storm system in a very populated area but thankfully not a large expanding slow moving storm system. Here is the latest snowfall amount from one of the computer models.

If this wasn’t enough an even bigger and more widespread winter storm looks likely to develop by Christmas. Right now the models are having a hard time figuring out which path it will take, how strong it will be and how much cold air will be to the north of the low pressure. So I won’t use any of the model data but I will explain here briefly what I see happening next week. First off the GFS computer model and main model used for forecasts you see is absolutely awful right now with its forecast. Several things after a closer look don’t make much since with it’s handling of convection to height falls to handling Alberta Clipper ahead of the main energy coming out of the Pacific Northwest. So it wants to feedback and placing more energy ahead of the shortwave. This will pump way to much warm air in front of the developing low and makes the storm track way to far north. Looking at the ensembles and thinking back to previous scenarios I believe there is a chance of a low pressure developing and moving northeast into the Chicago area. I don’t believe that as some of the computer runs have been saying that the low develops across Kansas and races northeast into parts of Iowa. The cold air coming south behind the storm system and also the cold air laid down by the Alberta clipper a couple days earlier. Will not allow this to happen and will likely press the Baroclinic zone much further south. As we’ll likely see a nice pressing of the cold air and see a low pressure form across Oklahoma or even North Texas. The next tricky part and the ensembles or collection of models has two scenarios which I see to be legit. #1 the storm strengthens quickly across the Central and Southern Plains and moves northeast into Missouri and eventually into the Great Lakes as it weakens. As another low and ultimately the main low develops across the Southeast then really gets going as it deepens up the East Coast. #2 track and scenario is that the cold air presses south into the Southern Plains and weaker low presses east across Texas with a trough extending north into Missouri. As the main low gets going across parts of East Texas or Louisiana and deepens across the South. Then it would turn northeast as another major blizzard for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

Timing is the key to this storm as if the cold air presses east of the Rockies the storm track will be much further south and pressed eastward. The models will continue to pick up on the next storm system as it begins to understand the effects from storm #1. So don’t jump on the northward track and storm track west of Chicago. As I know the talk from here across parts of Oklahoma to my home state of Indiana to even parts of the Tennessee valley. That was getting excited for a possible white Christmas has all but stopped and given up. Don’t let your guard down people from Oklahoma to Tennessee to North Carolina and points north. This pattern is still there to produce a very large and disruptive winter storm from Wednesday to Saturday of this coming week. So don’t return those sleds you may have bought for the kids or yourself. =) Winter has arrived and it’s here to stay for a while.

Have a great weekend everyone!! Justin