Model Mayhem Continues!

Typically by 3 days out the model would have differences but no more than 50-75 miles. Currently some of the models have over 300 miles differences in them. So right now I'm really reluctant to post any snowfall forecast based on huge differences there could be. What I will post on here is what I know, what I think and some kind of broad forecast for all that is interested.

First lets start with what we know-
Intense Arctic air is building to the north and is ready to be pulled down into the lower 48 states. Snow cover across Canada and the northern United States continues to be at or slightly above normal. So no matter where this area of low pressure forms across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. It will have plenty of cold air to pull into it creating dangerous wind chills and the possibility of flash freezing as the temperatures plummet.

Forecast
Right now I continue to believe that the 996 to 998mb (moderate strength) low pressure will still track from Kansas through southern Illinois, central Indiana, central Ohio then turning northeast into southern Canada. While another low pressure deepens across the East coast east of Virginia. Currently the models have the low pressure further north from Nebraska to around Chicago to northern lower Michigan. While a few others keep a very weak low drifting east/southeast across Missouri, Tennessee and eventually off the North Carolina coast.  

Precipitation amounts are even more all over the place with the models. However just by looking at the setup from the upper levels to the lower levels. I can't see this not having at least a swath of snow on the northern side of the low track with at least 4-7 inches. Most areas around that swath will likely see far less but right now too many questions to really talk amounts. The biggest danger from this storm will not be its huge snow totals but with its high winds and brutally cold temperatures. Winds will likely increase from 20-30 mph with higher gust around backside of the low. This is happening while temperature plummet into the teens and even single digits during the night. Producing near zero wind chills and lots of blowing and drifting snow. So don't under estimate what a few inches of snow blown around can do to the streets and visibilities while driving.

Still have a full 24 to 36 hours before the system starts coming together. So once the energy comes on shore late tonight across the West coast. The models will have a full picture of the entire atmosphere and should really start coming together. Unfortunately this won't likely occur to the morning runs of tomorrow.

Justin

No Change in Forecast as Models Continue to Waffle

I will not change my initial forecast from Monday with the first low pressure riding from the Plains through the Ohio Valley and turning northeast. As the energy transfers to another area of low pressure deepens off the East coast to the north. Some models have continued to slow down the strengthening of the first low pressure. Thus the track will be more west to east from northern Oklahoma to central Kentucky. Models usually have some waffling around the day 4 and 5 time frame but usually hone in by day 3. So that's why I'm waiting to put a true snowfall forecast until tomorrow afternoon.

Still looks like heavy snow, high winds and very low windchill values are in store for most location east of the Mississippi valley. Time frame of this winter event will start on Saturday and start winding down on Monday across the Northeast.

Justin

22nd Most Popular Streamer on SevereStudios!

I receieved an email from Severe Studios(The website I use to stream my dash cam while chasing) stating I was the 22nd most popular streamer (based on number of unique viewers) out of over 400 on SevereStudios.com during the 2010 storm season.
SevereStudios

This year has also been a good one for the website as well with over 4,000 viewers since Jan. 1st!

Thanks to everyone that continues to check out the website and watching the live feed.

Justin

Quick Update On The Pending Winter Storm for Ohio Valley and Northeast

Models continue to converge on a major winter storm from the Ohio Valley and into the Interior Northeast over the weekend. I continue to like my original snowfall forecast from yesterday with the areas along and north of I-70 across Illinois, Indiana, Ohio getting the heaviest snowfall and expanded into the interior Northeast. Snowfall behind the low pressure will likely fall into Tennessee and into mountains of the Carolina's by Sunday night. Along with the snow comes plenty of wind that will increase behind the storm system as it heads into the Northeast. This cold wind will press a very cold airmass into the Southeast and even into southern Florida by Sunday night. Where numerous record lows will likely be broken from the Ohio Valley to Florida. As I'm getting very concerned about the crops across central Florida on Monday morning and again on Tuesday Morning. Where they cold seeing temperatures as low as the middle to upper 20s.

Stay Tuned! Another update tomorrow and on Thursday I'll have my snowfall forecast.....Little teaser... Some folks are going to be receiving over a foot of snow. Break out those shovels!

Significant Snow Storm for the East Later This Week?

During the previous week, several analogs and even the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center have mentioned the upcoming pattern very similar to a major winter storm late in the Fall of 1950. This crippling storm knocked out power to more than 1,000,000 customers during this event. In all, the storm impacted 22 states, killing 353, and creating US$66.7 million in damage (1950 dollars).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Appalachian_Storm_of_November_1950

By no means does this future system look to be as powerful as the 1950 storm but it does have several similarities in the overall pattern. So this would mean a significant snow and wind for portions of the Ohio valley into the Northeast. Models continue produce a major storm system for the upcoming weekend. However the storm track, strength and speed of the system continues to change. Here are the four long range models for 120 hours and 144 hours. Notice the differences but also the similarities of producing a major storm system across the eastern third of the nation.

 

     

                                        

 Right now I like the look of the GFS and Japanese model based on the track and blocking across Greenland. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) continues to be negative indicative of a continued trough across the East coast. So the low pressure should continue to track east instead of really turning north as it strengthens. Looking back at previous storm tracks in this pattern from the Pacific Northwest into the Nebraska area. The mean track is generally from Nebraska to Indiana into New Jersey. Most are generally fairly weak low pressure however the strongest storms have been in La Nina winters and with strong blocking across Greenland. So that is why i'm agreeing with the models that have been indicating a sub 990 low.

Right now I believe the heaviest snow greater than 6 inches with a greater than a foot and a half within this swath.Will run from the I-80 corridor from central Iowa east to northern Illinois including Chicago. Then from Illinois into Ohio the heaviest snow will likely expand south to the I-70 corridor. This will include Champaign to Indianapolis to Columbus and points to the north into Michigan. The winds will continue to increase as this storm deepens as it drifts southeast into Ohio. Causing lots of drifting snow, blinding visibilities and plummeting temperatures. Many changes to come over the next several days with storm track and strength.....The snow/rain line will continue to change north/south/east/west but this gives an idea of whats COULD come into your area by this weekend.

Let the fun begin! I'll keep you posted on the latest and will put an actual snowfall prediction out on Thursday.

Justin