The Second Season about to start up!

 With the Spring severe weather season a distant memory, the Fall severe weather season(also know as the second season) is about to take off. A strengthening jet for the past week over the Pacific is about to crash into North American. This along with the gathering cold air across Canada will set up a battle zone across the US for the next two weeks. Currently an upper level low sits across the desert southwest but will get nudged out eastward by tomorrow. This will set off some severe weather across New Mexico tomorrow afternoon and evening. Then on Thursday will start to interact with some deeper moisture and strengthening jet stream overhead. Numerous t'storms will develop across eastern New Mexico into west Texas some being severe with large hail and some damaging wind gusts. These storms will eventually move east during the evening and overnight into Oklahoma and Kansas. The tornado threat will be on the low side but couldn't rule out a report or two. Friday is the day that has my attention because of the potential of severe weather in my viewing area(Sw Oklahoma) and northeast into central Oklahoma. Currently looking at the latest 12z model runs this morning, an area of low pressure at the surface will start to deepen across far se Colorado. Unfortunately and nothing this unusual this far out is that the models disagree with the position of the upper level energy. Currently the GFS is faster and starts to stretch out (postively tilted) and weakening the upper level low. The NAM model keeps the upper level low closed off a little more and has it moving east a little slower (Still a little fast for the perfect scenario for my area). This scenario would be more conducive of severe weather including supercells capable of tornadoes. Right now over the next couple of days i expect the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) to place parts of eastern Texas Panhandle, Oklahoma, southern Kansas and far northern Texas under a slight risk for severe weather on Friday. I'll keep you updated on the latest for later this week. This however is the first of several storm systems to develop across the Plains over the next 10-14 days. So I do expect more severe weather across central and southern Plains. Welcome to the second season everyone, as of right now the month of October is sitting below normal in the number of tornadoes. Here are the 500mb maps for the same time Friday late afternoon for the GFS and NAM.