Start of Day 3 with a Moderate Risk Posted

What a nice surprise to wake up to this morning as SPC has upgraded the slight risk to a moderate risk. We're currently in almost perfect position this morning as the drive to the storms should be pretty quick. So right now I'm finally getting my oil changed and relaxing in gorgeous Fort Collins, Colorado.

Today the trough finally starts to make it's appearance as the upper and mid level winds have turned to the southwest while low level winds are from the southeast.  So effective shear 40-50kts and moderate helicity values will promote rotating storms and the possibility of some tornadoes. The Cap that got us the last two days will still be an issue for the majority of the outlook area. However where we're targeting, the upslope of the mountains, a little cooler 700mb temperatures and some forcing from the approaching trough. Will likely help spark off the t'storms and once they do the environment will help maintain them.

Latest 12z RUC and 12z NAM place the surface low in different locations and will make a difference in where the t'storms form off the mountains. The 12z GFS is closers to the location of the NAM which is just to the east of Denver. Where the RUC places the low northwest of here in Fort Collins. Which would develop the t'storms off the Laramie range in southern Wyoming. So storms would likely move through Cheyenne and then drift east southeast into Nebraska and northeast Kansas by nightfall. I prefer and think the NAM has a better grasp on the trough coming in. So I think the storms will fire up from the southern Wyoming  south to Denver by around 4pm Mountain time. Then will track east southeast and strengthening through the late afternoon into a couple nasty supercells. So right now my target location is Fort Morgan and adjust from there. I'm really loving that is only about a hours drive east from our current location in Fort Collins. =) 

I'll give you another update later this afternoon but for now look at the latest outlook from SPC.

Got to love the Moderate Risk and the tornado threat being 10% in our location. However will have to watch out for the Large Hail as the probabilistic is up to 45%.