Target Area: Western Oklahoma- This Evening (10% chance of chasing)
Western Oklahoma- Monday (40% chance of chasing)
Texoma- Tuesday (80% chance of chasing)
Well the moisture continues to surge north this afternoon as 60 degree dew points are now in southeastern Kansas. Here in Lawton our dew points have gone from the 40s last night into the lower 60s in the matter of a few hours. It’s nice feeling the warm somewhat humid air and see this nice status cu this morning race to the north. Moisture depth could be a little better but we continue to see a nice fetch of moisture from the south. Surface to 700mb do show some signs of veering by tonight and into Monday which could mix some of the lower level moisture out. Hence hurting the threat severe weather along the dry line here in Oklahoma but definitely needs watching tomorrow. Here is a map of current dew points as of 1pm cst.
However before we get to that lets looks at the small possibility of some severe weather this afternoon here in Oklahoma. Temperatures continue to warm up nicely into the middle 80s under south winds. This will likely produce surface based CAPE up to near 1500 j/kg along a weak triple point in western Oklahoma. Although there is very weak convergence and slightly veered 850 winds there will be a chance of a few t’storms along the front by sunset. These could capable of producing large hail and damaging winds with a small tornado threat if they move away from the front. Here is a map of the area being watched for development this evening.
Moving on to Monday and Tuesday I’m not going to get into a full forecast analysis as many things are going to be mesoanalysis and won’t show up till the day of. Plus it’s Easter and I’m a little busy with my allergies killing me today. There is a moderate risk for severe t’storms to the north but I’ll focus on the storms I could possibly be chasing here in Oklahoma. Pros to the setup will be effective shear 40-50kts, dew points >60 and CAPE values over 2,500 both Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Cons will be veering winds and lack of height falls until after peak heating especially on Monday. Tuesday the biggest problem is the neutral tilt of the 500mb trough and no real convergence along the front. However there could be a weak low pressure that forms in the base of the trough near Childress, Texas. Here are the latest SPC outlooks for Monday and Tuesday. I’ll have plenty more on this setup on Monday…..Hoping to be chasing both days but we’ll see as it’s not for sure yet.
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