Major Storm System To Produce Severe Weather and Heavy Snow

Major storm system will develop across the Intermountain West and move into the Plains Wednesday-Friday. This storm will dump very heavy snow across the Rocky Mountains with Denver getting close to a foot in a half of snow by Thursday night. Here is the latest NAM 12Z model showing predicted snowfall accumulation by Thursday Evening.

Another big event of this storm system will be severe weather. This will start to become a threat by tomorrow evening(Wednesday evening) however it may take till overnight into Thursday morning before really getting going. A very strong jetstream will dive into the Southwest then eject out into the Plains by Thursday. This will create very strong sheared environment first across Oklahoma and Texas Wednesday night then expand northeast Thursday and Friday. Severe weather with a threat of tornadoes and Wind damage will develop and spread across Okahoma and Texas. Then Thursday and Friday east into Missouri, Arkansas, Louisans, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama and Mississippi. As the low pressure forms over northeast New Mexico and races northeast into Northern Minnesota by Friday. Here is the latest SPC outlooks for Wednesday night and on Thursday.   -Justin-

Looking Ahead To This Week And Into November

Pattern has slowed down a little and I have been a little busy so I haven't posted that much lately. However don't worry I have been still watching the weather and been trying to find time to continue to put together the winter forecast.

The coldest October in Denver history was 1969 with 2002 ranked 3rd. Right now, the month is 7.5 below normal (through today) But another week of double digit below normal cold is shaping up, with a snowstorm likely later in the week this should have them finish between 8 and 9 below normal.. not as cold as 1969, but near or lower than 02. Denver Coldest Octobers

A couple interesting storm systems this week as the first one is developing right over top of me here in Oklahoma. Then the second coming up mid week that the models still having several different scenarios. Now looking ahead to the next week and the next month. So  lets play the typhoon game again!

Lupit is recurving now so punch the 6-10 day clock of the trough coming through the east with a 5 day period of below normal temps.

Latest Ensemble Run

Here is the latest Ensembles that shows one more shot of some cold air into the Central Plains then into the East by months end. Then I do believe at the start of November the cold will ease and retreat north. However will build across Canada and will set the stage to plumnet into the deep freeze. The latest ensemble run really shows the cold air that will likely build across Canada as we go into November. Looking at previous analogs years that match to this years October. The damn could break right before Thanksgiving or could wait for the Winter Soltice. I guess we'll have to wait and see

Major Storm System from Coast to Coast this Week

Winter getting a jump start

Des Moines received its earliest 1 inch snowfall on record yesterday when 1.1 inches feel and two inches of snow in Denver forced the cancellation of the Rockies-Phillies NLDS playoff game last night. A major snowstorm blasted Nebraska Friday night into Saturday as nearly 14 inches fell at North Platte with over 17 inches in some isolated areas. Wind chills dropped to 11 degrees in Rapid City, South Dakota. More snow is expected into Monday with winter storms watches now posted from Montana to Minnesota. This will be the weaker of two storms this upcoming week.

Models are coming together in agreement of how the storm system talked about in the previous post will come into the U.S. Still plenty of details let to iron out on how it will tranverse the Plains and into the East. However all signs are pointing to a major storm system with plenty of snow for October north of the track.

The teleconnection that I talked about in the previous post with typhoon recurving is setting up near perfectly. Normally, the typhoon recurving simply outlines the ridges and how it pumps the ride west of the date line. This then continues to the east and pumps a deep trough in the Gulf of Alaska, which pumps the western Ridge. So if you have a strong ridge in the west this forces a trough to dig into the East. So it's not the typhoon, but what it means is the useful tool. However in this situation the actual tropical energy aka moisture could actually get involved. As typhoon Melor was absorbed into a extra tropical low and is still very well intact as it crosses the Pacific.

I believe this will first hit the Pacific Northwest with lots of wind, rain and heavy mountain snow early this week. Then as the energy crosses the Rockies the low energy transfers to a baroclinic zone. That is put down from a weaker low that will cause heavy rains in the Southern Plains into the Mississippi Valley early Monday and Tuesday. The front will then become stationary and wait for the main energy that will help develop a strong low pressure by late week. This low pressure will likely form in Oklahoma on Wednesday then quickly move east across the middle Mississppi Valley by Thursday and Friday. Then as the northern Jet and southern jet fully phase the trough will become negatively tilted. Helping the low pressure to turn northward and deepen as it heads into the Northeast.
















This will likely cause some more flooding rains in the south and also the possibility of severe weather. The flip side of the front will be producing cold rains changing over to snow. As a swath of accumulating snow will streak east out of Nebraska into Iowa, Wisconsin and even Northern Illinois. Chicago looks right on the border line as it looks now. Still really early to start pinpointing amounts or the actual snow/rain line. This snow will likely continue into Michigan and really start to become heavy from Pennslyvania into the interior Northeast. This will likely be a tree striper as lots of leaves still remain on the trees. As the snow will likely be very wet and cling to everything with a strong north wind as the storm winds down. Beyond this storm very cold air for this time of the year will surge south. As rain changes to flurries possibly as far south as parts of Tennessee with frost and freeze possible down to Alabama, Mississippi and Georgia By the weekend.

This is my latest forecast as in what I see happening this week.

Stay tuned as this storm starts to develop and I will no doubt have to adjust my forecast. -Justin-

Big Storm and Trough Next weekend in the East?

 Temperatures are starting to really cool down across Canada as the nights are getting longer and the snow cover is starting to grow. These temperatures will across the Northern and Central Plains for the weekend with accumulating snow in Colorado, Nebraska, Kansas and South Dakota. This resevior of cold air will make its way south and east later next week.























One of my favorite teleconnection this time of the year is recurving typhoons in the western Pacific near Japan. The rule is if you see a Typhoon recurve to the east of Japan then expect a Trough to develop in the east coast of the United States within 6-10 days. Well there was a typhoon that curved just to the east of Japan late this week. So 6-10 days later would be Wednesday- Sunday of next week. Models are starting to advertise this trough and low pressure development.  Details are still vague but the potential in my eyes is there for a pretty decent fall storm system.  That will likely development in the Southern Plains along a front and then the area of low pressure will deepen tracking northeast into the Tennessee and Ohio Valley.  Causing lots of rainfall in the places that don't need it and the possibility of severe weather. Then as the trough deepens it will pull in some below normal temperatures changing rain to snow. As I see a possible snow in the upper Midwest and into the interior Northeast. Then with the trough digging into the east I can see the first snow flurries by the weekend as far south as Lexington, Kentucky and Washington D.C.
Stay tuned as just like was advertised a month ago that October was looking very active.
Have a great weekend everyone!! -Justin-

Heavy Rains & Severe Wx before Polar Plunge

A storm system now centered off the California coast will begin moving east. Once it taps the increasing moisture, rain and thunderstorms will envelop the southern Plains again, beginning later today and continuing through Thursday night before ending Friday. Heavy rainfall will be possible, especially over eastern Oklahoma into parts of Missouri and Arkansas. There is also the possiblty severe weather Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. While all this is going on, cold air will build over western Canada. The cold air will begin moving into the southern Plains by Friday and will continue pouring south over the weekend.  More on the Polar plunge later as i'm a little busy today......Justin

Denver Weekend Snow followed Major Cold Wave for October

Map for High Temperatures this
Coming Monday ( Columbus Day). As a large Candian area of high pressure moves south into the Central Plains. Before this will be a major storm system with heavy flooding rains, Severe T'storms and the possibility of some accumulating snow. Tracking from the foothills of Colorado through parts of Kansas and Nebraska. I'll have more on this tomorrow.....Justin