Storm Season Is About To Arrive

Buckle those seats belts because Tornado Alley is about to live up to its name. A very favorable pattern is taking shape for repeated bouts of severe weather across the Central and Southern Plains. Reading special statements from Local NWS offices and the SPC office. They all notice and mention that climatology is on the side of major severe weather outbreaks with the upcoming pattern.

As a trough digs into the interior West a strong Ridge has developed across the East. Which is a blessing for everyone wondering if Spring was ever going to arrive east of the Mississippi River. Temperatures will likely soar well above average in parts of the East into the weekend. This has allowed the Gulf of Mexico to recover the warmth and moisture. That was continuing to be scoured out by strong cold front in the northwest flow we were in. Now that the pattern has changed deep moisture has been able to pool and now is surging north. Dewpoint levels have gone into low 60s well into Kansas. As the depth of the moisture is now above the 850mb throughout Eastern Texas. This is very key as when its not very deep the dewpoint may be 60 in the morning but by afternoon. The air has mixed, heated and dried so the dewpoint temperature may only be 51. Moisture is very key for storm development and especially tornadic development.

Going back to our stormy pattern evolution, the trough in the West will only slowly move east. In which in a southwest to northeast flow right over the Plains. It will send pieces of energy or little shortwaves out. Each one of these can and more and likely will produce severe weather starting Saturday. The SPC has already placed parts of Oklahoma, Kansas and northeastward to Chicago in a slight risk. The greatest threat will be in parts of southern Kansas and western Oklahoma. Where very large hail and tornadoes will be possible. Current parameters produce moderate to strong shear, moderate helicity and moderate to high CAPE (nearing 3,500 joules). The cap or lid on the atmosphere will likely only allow a few supercells to form by Saturday evening. More widespread storms will along the cold front from Kansas northeast to Southern Lower Michigan.

Beyond Saturday, a even strong s/w comes out into the Plains by Sunday evening. This will likely cause more widespread severe weather across the area. This just the start as the models so the entire week of short wave after short wave as the pattern doesn't really change. Looking even farther down the road the overall pattern will some changes from time to time looks the same till mid May. So if this comes true last years very dosial storm season here in Texoma will all but the past. As I will likely be a very tired person but will likely have some very cool shots of wicked supercells and some nice tubes.

Chase Mode: Yellow(Chase is likely)
My plans currently are to be along I-40 at the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle border at around 4pm. As models showing storms going up at or just north of I-40 by 5:30pm. I'll likely put together a analysis together tomorrow morning. As things will really come together in the next 24 hours.

Current SPC outlook for Saturday and Sunday

My Current Day 2 Chase Map with target area.

Thanks for Reading, I'll keep ya posted...