Winter Weather Update

I do hope everyone had a fantastic Christmas, I know I did being back in Indianapolis visiting friends and family. Thankfully Mother Nature released her grip from the brutal cold weather over the past week for a good portion of the US. As I mentioned about a week ago the cold weather would relax but hit with a vengeance by early January. So over the next week will be talking about the next Arctic blast and possible wintry weather. Here are some signs of the impending cold outbreak. As the Arctic Oscillation (AO) continues to go negative over the next 10days. Letting all the brutal cold air building up over the North Pole and Siberian to spill south. The cold weather will be forced south by the blocking over Greenland as the North Atlantic Oscillation continues to go negative. So some fun and games are in the cards over the next two weeks across the US. Stay Tuned and Happy New Years Everyone!! Be safe and responsible.

Winter Storm Update

Mixed Winter Precipitation is expected to increase in coverage and intensity during the afternoon. The potential of moderate to heavy freezing rain will increase from southwest to northeast. As the large western trough impinges on the Plains a strong low level jet with substantial warm air advection has developed from Eastern Oklahoma to Eastern Illinois. Temperatures at the surface continued to stay below freezing across much of Missouri, Illinois and Indiana. As warm air continues to build in at the mid levels eventually mixing down to the surface overnight. This warm air aloft has changed the precipitation to freezing rain and sleet across most of the area. Where the Arctic air remains deeper light snow will continue for a couple more hours. As strong forcing continues to build in with the warmer air aloft. Instability will increase giving the chance of thunderstorms to develop and move into the cold air. So heavy freezing rain or sleet with be possible under some of the thunderstorms especially across Missouri into Southern Illinois. By early evening some of the heavier precipitation will make it into Indiana and Ohio. Accumulation of ice especially on trees and power lines could add up to a quarter inch. This could cause some minor power outages and limbs to break.

Winter Storm starting to take shape

FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SRN IL AND INCREASE ACROSS SRN IND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS FEATURE WAS LOCATED ALONG THE NOSE OF A POWERFUL 60 TO 80 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WHERE LIFT IS LIKELY MAXIMIZED. THIS BAND SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH SOME OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING LIGHT SNOW WITH THE BAND

RADAR ESTIMATES SUGGEST RATES OF .10 INCHES PER HOUR ARE ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF SERN IL AND THIS INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE BAND MOVES EWD TOWARD INDIANAPOLIS. FREEZING RAIN WILL BE MOST LIKELY ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE BAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME SLEET WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BEFORE TEMPS WARM ALOFT SUFFICIENTLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

Next storm in line revs up

Another winter storm will travel from the Plains to the East coast over the next 3 days. As travel headaches can be expected from Tuesday afternoon to Christmas Day. Here is a quick look at a overview of Tuesday's setup. I'll try to find sometime tomorrow to post a more detailed timing of ice and snow for the Ohio Valley.

Chances of seeing a White Christmas....

Frigid Sunday Afternoon on the first day of Winter

The Siberian Express has definitely made a visit to the U.S. as temperatures are well below normal. Here are current temperatures across the U.S. during peak heating. Look at all of the area in the single digits to below zero. Temperatures will drop well below zero overnight and single digits across the country overnight. Remember Winter Solstice started this morning at 7:04am but the coldest day on average is generally is not till mid January.

I do however see a nice warming trend towards the new year as we finally release from the grips of Old Man Winter.

Cold Air is settles in

Wow! What a cold day across the United States especially for only the middle of December. These are temperatures at 3:45pm Eastern the warmest part of the day...

As the storm path is laid down with a mixture of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain. The storm track will be from California to Maine over the next 5 days. Tonight through Tuesday a swath of snow and some ice will develop across Kansas and eastern parts of Oklahoma and head for the Ohio Valley. General 2-4 inch snowfall with some higher possible.

Wintry look to the work week

Arctic cold front keeps chugging south and now is from Southern Oklahoma, Southeast Missouri to Northwest Illinois. As temperatures in the Northern Plains never got above zero this afternoon. This front will continue to slide south and will be by Monday morning to Central Texas, Western Tennessee and Western Ohio. This front will eventually lose the southward push and this week's wintry weather will be just north of the stalled front. As at the mid levels 500mb(18,000ft) the winds are in a southwest flow from Arizona to New York. The fast flow will keep from large storms from forming but will eject out many pieces of energy. Each shortwave will produce some precipitation along and north of it. So from northern Oklahoma and the Central Plains east to north of the Ohio Rives a mixture of Freezing rain, sleet and snow will be possible. Some heavy rains will also be possible from Arkansas, Tennessee and Kentucky. This pattern is very Cold for the Northern Plains with several days below zero. While the Southeast really starts to heat up as the Southeast ridge builds and allows temps in the 70s and 80s.

So forecasts will change daily as the models are all over the place with the cold air and warm air battling. Keep up with all the local forecast as there will likely be some major travel issues this week with the ice and snow. Here is the Snow Cover from the Latest GFS by Friday afternoon of this week. I think the snowcover will be a little further south as I believe is surging the warm air to far north. So the southern edge will be from Northern Oklahoma to Saint Louis to Cincinnati. Here is my snowfall and ice areas of concern through Friday.

Stay Tuned a very fun time around the US weather wise.

Arctic air plunging quickly south

Quick Morning Update-

Here are the current temperatures at 11:15 eastern across the United States. Look at the sub-zero temperatures across the Northern Plains as temperatures have warmed into the lower 70s across Northern Texas. Across the Front in Kansas we're seeing a 60 degree temperature difference in a matter of 100 miles. Amazing temperature spreads will occur throughout the day temperatures tumble behind this sharp powerful cold front. Models even this morning are 5 to 10 degrees to warm with temperatures behind the front. Which is horrible and the speed of the front heading south is a lot faster then the models depicted as well. So the slashing of the computer models continues as the cold dense air will not be realized by the models probably till tonight. Active storm path from Amarillo Texas to Louisville Kentucky for wintry precip this week. As snow will fall to the north of this line and wintry mix along this line from tonight through the work week. A bigger storm my be in store for next weekend but lets get through the fast and smaller low pressures this week.

Winter Weather Update

Here is some of the latest temperatures over Canada and the United States. As you can see some very cold air has massed across Canada. It will be quickly surging south then east over the next couple of days. Sub-Zero temperatures have seeped into Montana, as blizzard warnings covered Montana, Wyoming, North and South Dakota. This Arctic cold front will race south and will be from Sunday Evening from the Panhandle of Texas to Northern Arkansas to Western Illinois. Lot of questions still exist on the density of the cold air and far south it will run. As models are almost laughable in warmth in my eyes across the Southern Plains and Ohio Valley. Here are the GFS MOS data from 18z ( 1pm Saturday afternoon)

For Example: Model Data prints out high temperatures vs. what I believe

Lawton Indianapolis

Mon. 37 28 40 Falling Temps to the 20s

Tue. 43 33 36 28

Wed. 48 34 36 27

Thurs. 55 39 41 35

You can notice I'm a lot lower in temperatures as the models are not picking up on the shallow dense cold air. That will make it a lot further south and last longer then what the model thinks. Another reason the cold air will be able to last is the expanding snow cover this week down to the I-40 corridor in the Southern Plains and I-70 across the Midwest and Ohio Valley. As the cold air will continue to build with high pressures expanding over the large snow pack in Canada and diving south.

Snow/Ice Map will be issued tomorrow with the timing of the systems this week. Fast flow as cold air surges south with several weak weather systems.

Ice, Snow and Very Cold air on the Way

Will have much more later on the upcoming winter weather next week. As from the Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley will be ground zero for ice and snow. Very cold Arctic air dives south from Canada over the weekend. As warmer air tries to fight it off but the cold air will win as it will make it pretty far south into Texas and into the Tennessee Valley. So as the warm air overrides the cold air at the surface. Rain, Freezing rain, Sleet and Snow will break out along the front/baroclinic zone and north of it. As here in Texoma and also into Central Indiana are looking at several chances of Wintry weather next week. Much more on the details and amounts over the next several days as we get closer to next week. Models are starting to catch on but have been horribly under-doing the cold dense air.... Here it comes! A very cold and snowy time as we head to Christmas as its looking like a white Christmas for a lot of areas.

Cold shifts west as storm moves to the east

First major winter cyclone is now forming across the Oklahoma panhandle and will race off to the northeast later tonight. As showers and thunderstorms some severe will break out this evening from parts of Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana and Missouri. Snow will also begin to form across the Central Plains as the arctic cold front continues to push south. No real big changes on the track or snowfall predictions as snowfall wise. Here is the latest NAM snowfall Prediction for the next 84 hours. (Click on picture to make bigger)

Now beyond this period like mentioned in the previous blog is that the extreme cold in the East is going to ease up. As the mean trough shifts west for a week or so only building and damning up the extreme cold air. This will charge down the Plains by Sunday and Monday placing temperatures across the Plains 10 to possibly 25 degrees below normal. For instance here in Lawton the GFS MOS is predicting a high temperature of 54 degrees. I think the cold air is so dense with nothing really to stop it. That it quickly charges south on Sunday and Monday that the cold front is knocking on south Texas. So Lawton's high temperatures will likely be in the lower to middle 30s Monday afternoon. This is just an example of the models under doing the cold dense air just like last weeks cold outbreak( ie. Omaha). The brutal cold air will eventually shift East out of the Plains by around the 20th. Here is the latest EURO model that is handling the push to the south of the cold air. (Click on Picture to make bigger)

First Winter Storm with limited Cold Air

The talked about Arctic outbreak and winter storm will be much weaker then feared. As the energy from the Northern Jet stream and Southern Jet Stream will not phase. This has been the norm for this Fall and if continues will help keep the brutal temperatures and significant snow storms away. With that being said there will be still be a pretty good low pressure that with form in Oklahoma on Monday and move northeast towards Illinois or Indiana by Tuesday night. This will produce lots of rain for the Southern Gulf states north to the Ohio Valley. Some severe weather will be possible Monday night and Tuesday across far southeast Texas into Louisiana and Mississippi. Snow will also begin to fly from the Texas Panhandle northeast to Missouri on Tuesday. Some areas of From the Oklahoma Panhandle throughout southern Kansas to NW Missouri could see 2-4 inches with isolated 6 inch amounts. As strong north winds 30-40mph pull in colder air as temperatures drop during the day. As the area of low pressure pulls to the north it will begin to weaken and become sheared out. So the precipitation will become lighter and scattered in nature towards the Ohio Valley. As with the track of the low pressure, plenty of warm will be drawn north keeping most of the precipitation across the area in the form of rain. Here is the latest GFS computer model for Tuesday Evening. Looking ahead the Arctic air continues to build off to the north but with the lack of blocking it will stay to the north over the next 7 days. So expect a relaxation of the cold air for the East and South this week. As the trough axis shifts from over the Ohio Valley to the west over the Rockies. Still believe towards Christmas the True Siberian Express comes down with one or two major winter storms ahead of the brutal cold air. Still lots of potential in this weather patter so stay tuned as the damn could break at anytime.

Coldest Air of the Season & Possibly Record Breaking

While We try to stay warm from the current surge of Arctic air. A new beast of cold air is already forming in Siberia and is taking dead aim on the United States. Here is last week's departures from average Temperatures and Precipitation. Please keep checking back on here as I'm tracking very closely the possibility of some record breaking cold air. Also the makings of a major winter storm from the Plains and into the East next week. That would produce heavy rains on the warm side of it from the Gulf Coast to the East coast. Then a swath of Ice and Snow from Oklahoma to the Ohio Valley north of the lows track . In the low pressure would track from Texas on Tuesday northeast to the Ohio Valley By Thursday. Stay Tuned as this storm could pull down Frigid temperatures as cold as 10 to 20 degrees below zero.

Cold Temperatures Take Over

Our much talked about surge of cold air continues to filter in across a good portion of the Plains and into the East. 24 hour temperature differences across the Southern Plains are nearing 30 degrees. As temperatures are struggling to get out of the single digits across the Northern Plains. Over the next several days the cold air will linger around as we'll see below normal temperatures by 15 to 25 degrees. By the weekend some moderation will start to be evident across the Plains while the East will remain in the deep freeze. Here are the predicted high temperatures for Thursday. A pretty quite pattern for the rest of the work week as a possible minor Northeast snow storm is possible during the weekend. The next large weather system across the country looks to be by mid week as a large Pacific storm crashes into the the West. Stay Tuned.