A chilly November will turn active

As advertised by my Winter Forecast things have turned out chilly for portions of the Central and Eastern United States. Currently Cold Air was racing south across the Plains and into the East as this will be the final shot of really cold air for the next couple weeks. Now that doesn't rule out some cold air but nothing that will drop highs some 15 to 25 degrees below normal. As a pattern change is occurring and will start to be felt as we head into Thanksgiving week. This will mean great news for the fire ravaged areas of Southern California. They will be likely seeing a wetter two week period starting next week and lasting into the beginning of December. The jet stream will likely take a split flow as the northern branch will shift a little further north from west to east. As the southern jet gets active from the four corners and across the Southern Plains. Here is how below normal we have been over the past week across the US.

This pattern change has been supported for over a week now on the European and GFS ensembles but not until the last couple of runs on the actual GFS model as the European model has been handling this pattern the best. Now this will likely be a battle of the jets as the cold air will be making another charge indicted by the latest Arctic Oscillation(AO) as it goes Negative so do the temperatures across Canada and the US by the 10th of December.

Again just like I mentioned on my Winter Forecast the Climate Prediction continues to hold on to its warm bias of the winter season. As they're predicting a warmer than average month for the central Plains and no below normal temperatures across the US. As I believe the above normal will be more towards the Four Corners area with Below normal across the Northern Plains and alot of areas east of the Mississippi River. As I mentioned above, the cold air will be arriving in a big way by around the 10th of December. Here is the Climate Prediction Center December Outlook. Which is obvisously not seeing what I'm seeing.

Here is what I see happening in a general description over the next two weeks. This weekend a storms develops over the Ohio Valley and into the Interior Northeast with a mix of rain and snow. This will bring a cold shot of air but further north and east as the last two so no real cold gets pushed west of the Mississippi River. Then as energy dumps into the West and the northern Jet lifts north and becomes more zonal. This will allow the Southern Jet to lift north and phase with the energy diving off the West Coast. Then by Thanksgiving or the weekend following a piece of energy out of the Polar Jet with crash into the Northwest and either pick the energy up or phase with the energy hanging back into the Southwest and Southern Plains. This will then create a rain and snow storm that will either head up towards the Lakes or head east then reform across the Mid Atlantic and head northeast. As Arctic air gets drawn in behind it into Canada but I think this storm just sets the stage for the full blast of Cold air coming in about a week behind this storm around the 10th of December. This will likely place high temperatures 15 to 20 degrees below normal with widespread snow cover starting to show up from back to back storm systems. Here is last years and then the current Snow Cover Map as of the US.

So enjoy the moderating trend over the next 7 to 10 days across the Central and Eastern United States. As the rains finally develop across the south the cold air builds north. Then will finally meet to become a very fun, cold and snowy Holiday time period. Its beginning to look like a White Christmas as we'll be talking about the possibilities of that here in the coming weeks. Thanks again for checking out my website and encourage you pass this site along to others and help me grow. Justin