Sunday, November 30, 2008
Winter Weather Update Sunday 11am
Friday, November 28, 2008
Winter Weather Update- Weekend Storm
This area of low pressure will not be as strong as thought earlier this week. As the upper level and lower levels never really phased together. Which would allow a transfer of energy to the east coast producing a deeper low pressure. So with that being said I would expect a wide area of snow showers across the Ohio Valley Sunday into Monday. The heaviest snow band with the low pressure will likely be north of the line from Saint Louis, Missouri to Lafayette, Indiana to Detroit, Michigan. In which I could see an isolated amount up to 6 inches but most area will receive 2-4 inches. Rest of the Ohio Valley will eventually see the colder air change the rain into snow but will likely see less than 2 inches of accumulation. Click on the City NWS links on the right side of the page for the latest local forecast.
No matter what very cold air will come in two shots this week with the first shot this weekend and a bigger shot coming in mid-week. Which will likely produce high temperatures well below normal for alot of the Central and Eastern Unites States. We're talking high temperatures in the 20s across the Ohio Valley. I'll have another update on the Cold plunge later today or on Sunday.
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Happy Thanksgiving! Winter Update
If you remember back to last Thursday's posting I mentioned two storm systems with the second one being the bigger one. Well it looks like things are starting to come together for just that as the models are finally starting to catch on to it. Instead of rehashing what I said please scroll down and review on what I thought would be the pattern going into December.
This coming weekend Storm #1 develops across the east coast and could produce a swath of snow from Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio and points to the northeast. As of now the snow will be light across the Ohio Valley but increase in coverage and intensity as the storms strengthens off the northeast coast. This will have limited cold air behind it as the true Arctic air is now just crossing the pole and will be in great supply across Canada for Storm #2.
This will develop as the Southern Jet stream meets up with a pretty potent s/w coming out of western Canada by the middle of next week. As Storm #1 doesn't take all the energy out of the desert Southwest and allows #2 to phase with the left over energy. This is called a money in the bank scenario as the leftover energy is the key piece in the development of the storm. You'll liking here me say this several more times over the winter. Now there is a slight chance that storm#1 doesn't leave anything in the back. If that would occur storm#2 will be much weaker and wouldn't pull down the Arctic air late next week.
Here is the latest model run of the European and GFS for this Sunday morning. Notice the difference as the models tend to always have trouble with the money in the bank scenario. We're looking at an very active over the next 10 days. Stay tuned for further updates as big storm possibilities are out there for not only the East Coast but the Ohio Valley and Southern Plains as well. Keep checking back as this could be the first significant snowfall across the Ohio Valley and greater Northeast late this weekend.
Sunday, November 23, 2008
Arctic Plunge on the way
Thursday, November 20, 2008
A chilly November will turn active
So enjoy the moderating trend over the next 7 to 10 days across the Central and Eastern United States. As the rains finally develop across the south the cold air builds north. Then will finally meet to become a very fun, cold and snowy Holiday time period. Its beginning to look like a White Christmas as we'll be talking about the possibilities of that here in the coming weeks. Thanks again for checking out my website and encourage you pass this site along to others and help me grow. Justin
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
11-10-08 Severe weather recap
Total Storms- 1
Tornadoes-0
Hail- couple pea size hail stones
Damage- None
As we headed towards this cell to our southwest the weather conditions changed greatly as we went from cloudy with temps. in the upper 50s to temps to near 70 degrees. Once we arrived and got into position to watch the storm just east of Devol on highway 70. The storm started to intensify within ten minutes as a severe t'storm warning was issued at 1:39pm. We're at the location of the white circle just northeast of the storm. Nickel to Quarter Size hail was reported to our due west around 1:50pm.
At 2:15pm I did a call-in on air as we were on the air doing severe weather coverage. However at this time the storm had crossed the warm front and become outflow dominant. Then we decided to head south towards Wichita Falls and caught this last attempt to organize.Monday, November 10, 2008
Another Severe Weather Outbreak probably bigger
Sunday, November 9, 2008
Another day of Severe weather in November
Thursday, November 6, 2008
Severe Weather Recap for 11-5-08
Recorded wind gust of 47mph on Interceptor
Here is a link of the entire photo gallery from this chase.... Enjoy the Pictures
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
November Severe Weather Outbreak
Conditions are now starting to come together for a small outbreak of severe weather across the Central and Southern Plains this afternoon and evening. Currently a deepening area of low pressure was over Nebraska as a trailing cold front was across central Nebraska southwest to the Texas Panhandle. A dry line was also starting to form across western Oklahoma as south winds continued to bring in moderated moist air ahead of the fronts. By early afternoon isolated severe storm will begin to develop along the front from north to south.
Severe Weather in Indiana?
Looking ahead to Thursday some severe weather will be possible but expect things to really quiet down before getting to Indiana. The surface ridging over the Gulf of Mexico has really choked off the moisture from heading north into the Ohio Valley. So maybe a strong storm or two is still possible Thursday evening and overnight. Besides that it looks quiet until next week where there might be a chance of rain/snow mix.... Stay Tuned!
Saturday, November 1, 2008
2008-2009 Winter Forecast
So with no real strong La Nina or El Nino I went back and looked at this past summer and fall season weather pattern. The average trough axis during the summer was near the Mississippi River and since then it has continued to shift to the east towards the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. This trough will likely continue to move a little more east as the typical strong summer southeast ridge breaks down. Once it breaks down the winter jet, once it sets in, will tend to buckle over the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. We should also have a strong jet plowing into the Pacific Northwest, which will lead to frequent storms in the Pacific Northwest. This is another reason I like looking back at the past to predict the future. If its happened before with similar conditions why wouldn't it happen again.
The winter as a whole I believe with be a colder one from the Plains east then the past 5 years. Late November into December will likely be the coldest from normals and will likely be remembered as a very cold and snowy one from areas across the Northern Plains and area east of the Mississippi river. As this winter will be know for its start and end with a possible nice thaw in January relative to normals of course. So people in the Ohio Valley hoping for a white Christmas your odds are pretty good I think. Good sign of this happening by the end of November is the Arctic Oscillation index. Which has been positive but is showing signs of going negative quickly by mid November. For the majority of October it has been positive and that has allowed a very cold air mass to build. So when the AO turns negative like expected on the latest forecast model there will be a very large supply of cold air for the lower 48 states. Frozen Turkey anyone?
Here is a real quick map to show you were I think temperatures will break down for the winter season and now here is a break down each region of the lower 48 states.
WEST: Warm and Dry for most of the region except for the far Northwest as they will likely see a normal to slightly above normal precipitation. As there will likely be a pretty steady line of storms coming off the Pacific especially early on. California and into the southwest will likely be talking about high fire danger and drought conditions by the spring.
The Plains: Yo-yo season with frequent shots of cold arctic air with it lasting longer in the north compared to the southern Plains. Could see a couple big snows and ice storms across the Central Plains(Nebraska,Kansas and Oklahoma) with the Southern Plains(Texas Panhandle, Oklahoma) dealing with freezing rain/drizzle. Low level cold air with warmth of the southwest trying to build to the north and east. Core of the coldest air will likely be centered across the eastern part of the Northern Plains.
Southeast: Not good news as will likely continue its dry and warm pattern except I do see a possibility of a couple nice size storms(Georgia and the Carolinas) with a wetter late winter season( Feb and Mar).
Great Lakes & Ohio Valley: The snow lovers will enjoy this forecast as a cold winter is in store with some long lasting cold weather. Do see the possibility of some large storms but do see the frequent Alberta Clippers a little more likely in the cold northwest flow through the heart of the winter. A January thaw with likely help give a brief break from the cold weather.
Northeast: Noreasters and cold weather especially for the interior but the coast line will be near normal with some fights of heavy rain and snow. Analogs point to some heavy snow storms across the eastern Ohio Valley, up the Appalachian mountains and up the East Coast.
Monthly Forecast
November: Cold air starts to really take hold by the 20th across the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes. As they will likely see below normal temperatures for the month with some nice storm systems developing. They will likely be fueled by a nice contrast of temperatures with the warmest temperatures being the desert Southwest and the Southeast. Precipitation will likely be above normal from the Southern Plains east along the stormtrack to the Ohio Valley.
December: Coldest month of the Winter season compared to normals for the majority of the U.S. east of the Rockies. Large Arctic outbreaks as Arctic Oscillation shows signs it will want go negative allowing for some very cold temperatures. Another thing that will help is the expansion of snow cover that starts by late November and will really get laid down by Christmas arrives. I believe the core of the cold will come after mid month and last into January. An interesting to note the Gulf-o-centric hurricane seasons, the last three most prominent with no strong ENSO signal ('05, '89, '85 ... all with more than three named storms in the Gulf and more than 75% of the hits in the Gulf), had cold Decembers. Precipitation will likely be normal to slight below normal across the Plains. Since the stormtrack will so far south the Gulf Coast could see normal to slight above normal precipitation.
January: Cold to start the month with a January thaw likely as all analogs had slightly warmer than normal temperatures. So yes it will be cold since average high temperatures are generally at there coldest during January. The overall pattern will likely not promote Arctic outbreaks and likely be a calmer drier month then that of November and December.
February and March: Cold air lingers well into March for a good portion of the country as wave pattern starts to shorten. This will promote the frequency of storms across the nation with two prominent storm tracks. One from the northern Rockies with a lee side Low developing across the southern Plains moving northeast into the Great Lakes. The second one will likely be energy diving south across the Plains then developing a coastal storm off the east coast.
Key Points for the Ohio Valley: Warm start to November with likely an abrupt end to the warmth by the 20th. First 4+ inch snowstorm will likely arrive by the first week of December with temperatures 2 to 4 degrees below normal for December. January will be near normal with temps and Precipitation. I also wouldn't be surprised to see a very cold start be even out by a warm end of the month. February will have normal temperatures and precipitation. Temperatures will likely be colder then normal through most of March with a wet pattern. Indianapolis Averages around 24 inches of snow as I'm predicting around 26inches.
Key Points for Texoma: Very warm end of Fall will come to a crashing end by early December with frequent shots of Arctic air down the Plains. Northwest flow with occasional energy upper level energy will make things interesting. December will likely see one or two ice/snow threats with a pattern supporting overrunning precipitation. So I can see several bouts of freezing drizzle or freezing rain come by the end of December. If a storm can develop before getting east of the area an nice snow storm will be possible with the storm track especially early in the season. Texoma averages 1-3 inches from South to North and I could see a slightly above normal season for snowfall with Ice being the biggest threat.
Now here is what the Climate Prediction Center is expecting for the Lower 48 states. As you can see my winter forecast is alot different which has me wondering a little. =)