Sunday, November 30, 2008

Winter Weather Update Sunday 11am

Round #1 of snow has moved through the Ohio Valley as the area of low pressure now located near Indianapolis (Little further east then I and the models expected). Will continue to move northeast slowly over the next 24hours. By Monday afternoon will eventually move out of the area as the low pressure moves northeast of Detroit into Canada. As additional energy and the upper level low continues to phase into the surface low. Snow showers will once again develop across Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and Ohio. The heaviest snow band like posted yesterday will be across Central/Northern Illinois, Northern Indiana and Southern lower Michigan. Here are some of the snow totals across the area from overnight into this Sunday morning.

Kokomo, Indiana- 3.o Inches
Indianapolis, Indiana- .5 inches
Lafayette, Indiana- 1.1 inches
Champaign, Illinois- 2.6 inches
Bloomington, Illinois- 4.o inches

I agree with the NWS in Indianapolis forecast for additional snowfall thru Monday evening. So here is their latest snowfall prediction with a general 1-3 inches.

Friday, November 28, 2008

Winter Weather Update- Weekend Storm

Quick weekend update on the developing winter storm and trough over the eastern portion of the United States. An weak area of low pressure currently located in northern Alabama will start to strengthen as it pulls north overnight into Sunday. As colder air dives in behind the storm a moderately strong upper level low pressure currently over Missouri. Helps strengthens the low pressure over Alabama as it heads towards Ohio.

This area of low pressure will not be as strong as thought earlier this week. As the upper level and lower levels never really phased together. Which would allow a transfer of energy to the east coast producing a deeper low pressure. So with that being said I would expect a wide area of snow showers across the Ohio Valley Sunday into Monday. The heaviest snow band with the low pressure will likely be north of the line from Saint Louis, Missouri to Lafayette, Indiana to Detroit, Michigan. In which I could see an isolated amount up to 6 inches but most area will receive 2-4 inches. Rest of the Ohio Valley will eventually see the colder air change the rain into snow but will likely see less than 2 inches of accumulation. Click on the City NWS links on the right side of the page for the latest local forecast.

No matter what very cold air will come in two shots this week with the first shot this weekend and a bigger shot coming in mid-week. Which will likely produce high temperatures well below normal for alot of the Central and Eastern Unites States. We're talking high temperatures in the 20s across the Ohio Valley. I'll have another update on the Cold plunge later today or on Sunday.

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Happy Thanksgiving! Winter Update

Happy Thanksgiving! I hope everyone and their family have a very full and delightful holiday.

If you remember back to last Thursday's posting I mentioned two storm systems with the second one being the bigger one. Well it looks like things are starting to come together for just that as the models are finally starting to catch on to it. Instead of rehashing what I said please scroll down and review on what I thought would be the pattern going into December.

This coming weekend Storm #1 develops across the east coast and could produce a swath of snow from Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio and points to the northeast. As of now the snow will be light across the Ohio Valley but increase in coverage and intensity as the storms strengthens off the northeast coast. This will have limited cold air behind it as the true Arctic air is now just crossing the pole and will be in great supply across Canada for Storm #2.

This will develop as the Southern Jet stream meets up with a pretty potent s/w coming out of western Canada by the middle of next week. As Storm #1 doesn't take all the energy out of the desert Southwest and allows #2 to phase with the left over energy. This is called a money in the bank scenario as the leftover energy is the key piece in the development of the storm. You'll liking here me say this several more times over the winter. Now there is a slight chance that storm#1 doesn't leave anything in the back. If that would occur storm#2 will be much weaker and wouldn't pull down the Arctic air late next week.

Here is the latest model run of the European and GFS for this Sunday morning. Notice the difference as the models tend to always have trouble with the money in the bank scenario. We're looking at an very active over the next 10 days. Stay tuned for further updates as big storm possibilities are out there for not only the East Coast but the Ohio Valley and Southern Plains as well. Keep checking back as this could be the first significant snowfall across the Ohio Valley and greater Northeast late this weekend.

Sunday, November 23, 2008

Arctic Plunge on the way

Ensembles and teleconnections continue to support a major cold outbreak as we head into December. As mentioned back in October and stated again last week. Is that I continue to predict a major cold wave in December. If you remember back in the Winter Forecast I mentioned the year 1989 as one of the years showing up on the anomalies. Well we might challenge some of those records from 89' especially across the areas east of the Mississippi River. Here is the latest Arctic Oscillation which is showing it tanking negative as we head towards mid-month. Also the latest GFS ensemble which show well below normal heights with the upper level winds coming straight south from the North Pole. Keep checking back as I'll be posting a more detailed forecast for the Thanksgiving holiday and Upcoming Cold weather.

Thursday, November 20, 2008

A chilly November will turn active

As advertised by my Winter Forecast things have turned out chilly for portions of the Central and Eastern United States. Currently Cold Air was racing south across the Plains and into the East as this will be the final shot of really cold air for the next couple weeks. Now that doesn't rule out some cold air but nothing that will drop highs some 15 to 25 degrees below normal. As a pattern change is occurring and will start to be felt as we head into Thanksgiving week. This will mean great news for the fire ravaged areas of Southern California. They will be likely seeing a wetter two week period starting next week and lasting into the beginning of December. The jet stream will likely take a split flow as the northern branch will shift a little further north from west to east. As the southern jet gets active from the four corners and across the Southern Plains. Here is how below normal we have been over the past week across the US.
This pattern change has been supported for over a week now on the European and GFS ensembles but not until the last couple of runs on the actual GFS model as the European model has been handling this pattern the best. Now this will likely be a battle of the jets as the cold air will be making another charge indicted by the latest Arctic Oscillation(AO) as it goes Negative so do the temperatures across Canada and the US by the 10th of December.
Again just like I mentioned on my Winter Forecast the Climate Prediction continues to hold on to its warm bias of the winter season. As they're predicting a warmer than average month for the central Plains and no below normal temperatures across the US. As I believe the above normal will be more towards the Four Corners area with Below normal across the Northern Plains and alot of areas east of the Mississippi River. As I mentioned above, the cold air will be arriving in a big way by around the 10th of December. Here is the Climate Prediction Center December Outlook. Which is obvisously not seeing what I'm seeing.

Here is what I see happening in a general description over the next two weeks. This weekend a storms develops over the Ohio Valley and into the Interior Northeast with a mix of rain and snow. This will bring a cold shot of air but further north and east as the last two so no real cold gets pushed west of the Mississippi River. Then as energy dumps into the West and the northern Jet lifts north and becomes more zonal. This will allow the Southern Jet to lift north and phase with the energy diving off the West Coast. Then by Thanksgiving or the weekend following a piece of energy out of the Polar Jet with crash into the Northwest and either pick the energy up or phase with the energy hanging back into the Southwest and Southern Plains. This will then create a rain and snow storm that will either head up towards the Lakes or head east then reform across the Mid Atlantic and head northeast. As Arctic air gets drawn in behind it into Canada but I think this storm just sets the stage for the full blast of Cold air coming in about a week behind this storm around the 10th of December. This will likely place high temperatures 15 to 20 degrees below normal with widespread snow cover starting to show up from back to back storm systems. Here is last years and then the current Snow Cover Map as of the US.

So enjoy the moderating trend over the next 7 to 10 days across the Central and Eastern United States. As the rains finally develop across the south the cold air builds north. Then will finally meet to become a very fun, cold and snowy Holiday time period. Its beginning to look like a White Christmas as we'll be talking about the possibilities of that here in the coming weeks. Thanks again for checking out my website and encourage you pass this site along to others and help me grow. Justin

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

11-10-08 Severe weather recap

November 11th, 2008 Severe weather recap

Total Miles- 151 miles
Total Storms- 1
Tornadoes-0
Hail- couple pea size hail stones
Wall cloud- One very ragged one that was quickly demolished by outflow
Damage- None
Max Wind Gust-36 mph inflow and 41 outflow recorded by Interceptor
Very interesting chase as things during the morning seemed to only get better to end up as a bust. The majority of Texoma had a slight risk with a greater risk of severe weather to the southeast of the area. By 11am the warm front continued to very slowly work it way north as a 700mb dryslot was quickly racing northeast across the area as skies become partly sunny. Then by 1pm a couple isolated showers started to develop just south of the warm front and in front of the dryline was slowly pressing east. Here is the radar view and SPC outlook as we headed towards the cell from the station at 1pm. A tornado Watch was also issued for our southern counties marked in a red box on the radar below.

As we headed towards this cell to our southwest the weather conditions changed greatly as we went from cloudy with temps. in the upper 50s to temps to near 70 degrees. Once we arrived and got into position to watch the storm just east of Devol on highway 70. The storm started to intensify within ten minutes as a severe t'storm warning was issued at 1:39pm. We're at the location of the white circle just northeast of the storm. Nickel to Quarter Size hail was reported to our due west around 1:50pm.

At 2:15pm I did a call-in on air as we were on the air doing severe weather coverage. However at this time the storm had crossed the warm front and become outflow dominant. Then we decided to head south towards Wichita Falls and caught this last attempt to organize.
We then headed south on highway 281 south of Wichita Falls into Archer County. Where we parked and looked to the west at the dryline about 50miles to the west. Hoping with all the sunshine, temperatures in the lower 70s and dewpoints in the lower 60s. That more severe thunderstorms would fire up and take advantage of the decent helicity values. Well the cap was to strong and the forecasted shortwave was slower in coming out and was less negatively tilted as advertised. So we headed back to the station at end the chase by around 5pm.

Monday, November 10, 2008

Another Severe Weather Outbreak probably bigger

Wow, looking at some of the model data and surface analysis paints an very unstable atmosphere later this afternoon. Currently the SPC has a slight risk from parts of Oklahoma south into Texas. After looking at things this morning I wouldn't be surprised if they upgrade portions of the slight risk into a moderate risk. As very strong upper level winds will overlay the turning of the winds near the surface to promote the development of supercells by mid afternoon. The likely moderate risk area will be from Abilene to just south of Dallas to along I-35 west to near Junction, Texas. This area will have the greatest threat of tornadoes including some strong tornadoes by late afternoon. For the Texoma area we're watching how far north the warm front moves and how much sunlight/heating we can get by mid afternoon. Currently there is quite a bit of clearing off to the south and west. As storms have already pulled north of the viewing area for the most part. This could be another chase day for me across North Texas as I'll probably head out by 2pm. Latest Outlook posted at 7am Central time.

Sunday, November 9, 2008

Another day of Severe weather in November

Greetings from Texoma on this crisp chilly morning in early November. Which from the feel of the air this morning, its hard to imagine I'm posting about severe weather. However a small vigorous shortwave is charging its way south and east across California currently. Modified tropical air is now starting to make its surge north across northern Mexico and far southern Texas. As upper level divergence and lift starts to move over the moist air showers and t'storms will form very late overnight into Monday morning across Northern Texas and parts of Oklahoma. Some of these storms will be capable of producing hail up to quarters. Then if the clouds and rain of the warm front can pull north and east of Texoma. The dryline moving across the area during the afternoon and evening could produce more severe weather. The models have continued to decrease the speed of the system and the veering of the winds. So severe weather is looking more and more possible for portions of the area. I'll have another update later on this evening as some of the short models will start coming in. Stay Tuned! Here is the latest severe weather outlook from SPC..... Monday OUTLOOK

Thursday, November 6, 2008

Severe Weather Recap for 11-5-08

November 5th, 2008 Storm chase Recap

Total Miles- 154 miles
Total Storms- 3
Tornadoes-0
Hail- Fallen dime to nickel size (covering the ground)
Wall cloud- 3 with one with slow broad rotation
Damage- wind damage 60-70mph (micro burst)
Recorded wind gust of 47mph on Interceptor

Started the day with a nice slight risk area for our eastern counties of the viewing area in southwest Oklahoma. As storms were forecasted to start firing along a dryline by 3pm right around Lawton and points east. By 1:30pm a small shower started to develop just north of Lawton in Caddo county. This however was having a hard time getting going so around 2pm Ollie(station photographer) and I took off north on I-44 heading northeast to Chickasha as a Tornado Watch was posted for the area. As we were heading northeast we noticed several towers going up to our southwest which was good news because the storms raced northeast at around 45mph. So it was pretty much get ahead of them and watch them go by and try to keep up with them for a little while.
So as we reached Chickasha we noticed that the storms to our north we racing out of the area so we got into position to intersect the storms north developing over Lawton. So we head down highway 81 towards Rush Springs were we watched Storm#1, Storm #2 and Storm #3 from. Storm #1 wasn't warned by was very photogenic with a nice rainshaft and great updraft tower. Storm #2 as it passed to our northwest gained strength quickly and was warned from our area north for large hail up to quarters. Storm #3 from this location developed very quickly and dumped very heavy rain right overhead then produced a beautiful rainbow and rainshaft in the sun(see pictures).
Then thing calmed down a little as we didn't see any real towers going up to the west. So we decided to head a little south towards Duncan as a small shower was developing on Cotton county to the southwest. This would be our last storm as sunset is at 5:30pm now. So we headed on the westside of Duncan and found a great viewing spot. We then watched this storm develop from a thundercloud with very little falling precip to a very strong storm as it passed overhead. This storm became better organized as it raced northeast towards us. As the meso passed right over us a severe t'storm warning was issued for the storm. As radar and also by sight was showing this storm really starting to wrap us a little. Shortly before passing overhead a small RFD notch started to cut into the updraft as rising scud quickly formed a wall cloud. As it passed overhead it displayed lots of movement and a very broad but distinct circulation as we got hit with a wind gust of 47mph from the RFD. This eventually developed a decent wall cloud for about 10 mins as it raced northeast. We packed up and followed it as it tried to lower several times. As we headed behind it we went through the city of Marlow which had been turned into a winter wonderland with dime to penny size hail covering the grass like a light dusting of snow. As night fell the storm weakened but was still producing inch size hail as I did a phoner for the top of the 6 o'clock news. I was then told after doing my report from the field that wind damage had been reported in Duncan about 3 miles northwest of the location where we were watching the storm from. So we found the gentleman's house and took some footage of his downed tree, blown over fence and shed that had been pushed off this foundation. It looked like a microburst of around 60-70mph as it was a very small area of damage.

According to the SPC there were 137 reports of severe weather with 4 tornadoes reported in far southwest Missouri overnight.

Here is a link of the entire photo gallery from this chase.... Enjoy the Pictures

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

November Severe Weather Outbreak

Severe weather outlook for the Plains and Texoma. Indiana Outlook Below...

Conditions are now starting to come together for a small outbreak of severe weather across the Central and Southern Plains this afternoon and evening. Currently a deepening area of low pressure was over Nebraska as a trailing cold front was across central Nebraska southwest to the Texas Panhandle. A dry line was also starting to form across western Oklahoma as south winds continued to bring in moderated moist air ahead of the fronts. By early afternoon isolated severe storm will begin to develop along the front from north to south.

Here in Texoma we are looking at the chance of severe weather this afternoon after 3pm. The dryline in the last couple of model runs have slowed down. So this is allowing parts of Texoma to be under the gun with isolated severe t'storms. Damaging winds and Large hail up to 2 inches will be possible. If storms can get going and mature within 45mins of their development the tornado threat will increase in them. The SPC has no updated there outlook and placed parts of Oklahoma and Kansas in a moderate risk.
Current plans for me is to head back to the station by 2pm and head out to chase with a photographer. Right now thinking about setting up just east of Lawton and then watching to see where the dryline is and how the convection is developing. I'll try to update this later this afternoon if not I'll have an review of the storms tomorrow.

Latest SPC Outlook

Severe Weather in Indiana?
Looking ahead to Thursday some severe weather will be possible but expect things to really quiet down before getting to Indiana. The surface ridging over the Gulf of Mexico has really choked off the moisture from heading north into the Ohio Valley. So maybe a strong storm or two is still possible Thursday evening and overnight. Besides that it looks quiet until next week where there might be a chance of rain/snow mix.... Stay Tuned!

Saturday, November 1, 2008

2008-2009 Winter Forecast

Justin's 14th Annual Winter Forecast for the 2008-2009 Season.
This forecast is for the months November through March and will include an general forecast pattern over the lower 48 states. I will also put in a little more detailed forecast in for the Ohio Valley and Texoma area. This forecast has been in the works for the past couple months whenever I got a little free time to work on it. I do occasionally read forecast predictions or case studies from other meteorologists or groups like the Climate Prediction Center. I however do not base my prediction from them but solidify my thoughts by their findings or beliefs in their forecast. I have spent the last two months reading, understanding and putting together my own forecast. So here it is, my latest winter forecast for the winter of 2008-2009 hope you enjoy it or at least read it.
The enso-neutral conditions continued during the fall season, as generally near average sea surface temperatures were observed across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Though the enso-neutral conditions have been in place since early summer, the atmospheric circulation the western and central tropical pacific had lingering affects of a weak La Nina through early Fall. Looking ahead to the next 3 to 4 months the forecast for Nino 3.4 sea surface temperatures anomalies( difference in average over last 30 years) are in pretty good agreement. The consensus for the rest of the fall and winter season is the ENSO to remain neutral. Therefore the forecast of temperature and precipitation will not be bases on years with more than a minor El Nino or LA Nina. The Zero on the Graph equals a neutral signal with plus numbers El Nino/minus La Nina.
Over the years I continue to use analogs and they have come up very well especially the last three out of four years. As I pretty much nailed what the overall pattern would be in general for last winter and what kind of weather would dominate in certain areas of the lower 48 states. This years MEI analog years that match up with this years spring, summer and early fall season(through Sept) are 1985-1986, 1949-1950 and 1974-1975. Then I took MEI analog looks just using the Hurricane season June-Sept and came up with some very close match based on Precipitation and temperature distribution. Years 1950,1974 and 1989 were the top threes and all had very similar hurricane numbers with 15 to 17 storms and majority of landfalls being western Gulf and Carolina coast. 1985 and 1989 had very similar Falls with the aspect to temperatures in which they had drastic changes to winter come mid to late November into December.

So with no real strong La Nina or El Nino I went back and looked at this past summer and fall season weather pattern. The average trough axis during the summer was near the Mississippi River and since then it has continued to shift to the east towards the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. This trough will likely continue to move a little more east as the typical strong summer southeast ridge breaks down. Once it breaks down the winter jet, once it sets in, will tend to buckle over the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. We should also have a strong jet plowing into the Pacific Northwest, which will lead to frequent storms in the Pacific Northwest. This is another reason I like looking back at the past to predict the future. If its happened before with similar conditions why wouldn't it happen again.

The winter as a whole I believe with be a colder one from the Plains east then the past 5 years. Late November into December will likely be the coldest from normals and will likely be remembered as a very cold and snowy one from areas across the Northern Plains and area east of the Mississippi river. As this winter will be know for its start and end with a possible nice thaw in January relative to normals of course. So people in the Ohio Valley hoping for a white Christmas your odds are pretty good I think. Good sign of this happening by the end of November is the Arctic Oscillation index. Which has been positive but is showing signs of going negative quickly by mid November. For the majority of October it has been positive and that has allowed a very cold air mass to build. So when the AO turns negative like expected on the latest forecast model there will be a very large supply of cold air for the lower 48 states. Frozen Turkey anyone?

Here is a real quick map to show you were I think temperatures will break down for the winter season and now here is a break down each region of the lower 48 states.

WEST: Warm and Dry for most of the region except for the far Northwest as they will likely see a normal to slightly above normal precipitation. As there will likely be a pretty steady line of storms coming off the Pacific especially early on. California and into the southwest will likely be talking about high fire danger and drought conditions by the spring.

The Plains: Yo-yo season with frequent shots of cold arctic air with it lasting longer in the north compared to the southern Plains. Could see a couple big snows and ice storms across the Central Plains(Nebraska,Kansas and Oklahoma) with the Southern Plains(Texas Panhandle, Oklahoma) dealing with freezing rain/drizzle. Low level cold air with warmth of the southwest trying to build to the north and east. Core of the coldest air will likely be centered across the eastern part of the Northern Plains.

Southeast: Not good news as will likely continue its dry and warm pattern except I do see a possibility of a couple nice size storms(Georgia and the Carolinas) with a wetter late winter season( Feb and Mar).

Great Lakes & Ohio Valley: The snow lovers will enjoy this forecast as a cold winter is in store with some long lasting cold weather. Do see the possibility of some large storms but do see the frequent Alberta Clippers a little more likely in the cold northwest flow through the heart of the winter. A January thaw with likely help give a brief break from the cold weather.

Northeast: Noreasters and cold weather especially for the interior but the coast line will be near normal with some fights of heavy rain and snow. Analogs point to some heavy snow storms across the eastern Ohio Valley, up the Appalachian mountains and up the East Coast.

Monthly Forecast

November: Cold air starts to really take hold by the 20th across the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes. As they will likely see below normal temperatures for the month with some nice storm systems developing. They will likely be fueled by a nice contrast of temperatures with the warmest temperatures being the desert Southwest and the Southeast. Precipitation will likely be above normal from the Southern Plains east along the stormtrack to the Ohio Valley.

December: Coldest month of the Winter season compared to normals for the majority of the U.S. east of the Rockies. Large Arctic outbreaks as Arctic Oscillation shows signs it will want go negative allowing for some very cold temperatures. Another thing that will help is the expansion of snow cover that starts by late November and will really get laid down by Christmas arrives. I believe the core of the cold will come after mid month and last into January. An interesting to note the Gulf-o-centric hurricane seasons, the last three most prominent with no strong ENSO signal ('05, '89, '85 ... all with more than three named storms in the Gulf and more than 75% of the hits in the Gulf), had cold Decembers. Precipitation will likely be normal to slight below normal across the Plains. Since the stormtrack will so far south the Gulf Coast could see normal to slight above normal precipitation.

January: Cold to start the month with a January thaw likely as all analogs had slightly warmer than normal temperatures. So yes it will be cold since average high temperatures are generally at there coldest during January. The overall pattern will likely not promote Arctic outbreaks and likely be a calmer drier month then that of November and December.

February and March: Cold air lingers well into March for a good portion of the country as wave pattern starts to shorten. This will promote the frequency of storms across the nation with two prominent storm tracks. One from the northern Rockies with a lee side Low developing across the southern Plains moving northeast into the Great Lakes. The second one will likely be energy diving south across the Plains then developing a coastal storm off the east coast.

Key Points for the Ohio Valley: Warm start to November with likely an abrupt end to the warmth by the 20th. First 4+ inch snowstorm will likely arrive by the first week of December with temperatures 2 to 4 degrees below normal for December. January will be near normal with temps and Precipitation. I also wouldn't be surprised to see a very cold start be even out by a warm end of the month. February will have normal temperatures and precipitation. Temperatures will likely be colder then normal through most of March with a wet pattern. Indianapolis Averages around 24 inches of snow as I'm predicting around 26inches.

Key Points for Texoma: Very warm end of Fall will come to a crashing end by early December with frequent shots of Arctic air down the Plains. Northwest flow with occasional energy upper level energy will make things interesting. December will likely see one or two ice/snow threats with a pattern supporting overrunning precipitation. So I can see several bouts of freezing drizzle or freezing rain come by the end of December. If a storm can develop before getting east of the area an nice snow storm will be possible with the storm track especially early in the season. Texoma averages 1-3 inches from South to North and I could see a slightly above normal season for snowfall with Ice being the biggest threat.

Now here is what the Climate Prediction Center is expecting for the Lower 48 states. As you can see my winter forecast is alot different which has me wondering a little. =)

Possible Early November Severe weather outbreak

Models have been indicating a pretty big broad trough coming out of the West this coming week. Given the amount of energy and warmth ahead of it severe weather is looking possible as early as Tuesday. However the most likely day of severe weather will be Wednesday afternoon and evening across the Central Plains. Here is the latest from the Storm Prediction Center and I'll have more on this pending event in the next couple of days. UPDATE: 11/3/08 9am

Models continue to show very strong trough coming into the Plains then into the East over the next 3 to 4 days. Severe weather will likely break out Wednesday afternoon and last into Thursday as a large squal line develops and races Eastward. Wednesday the most likely area of Severe weather will be from Eastern Nebrasks and Western Iowa south to portions of Oklahoma. Thursday the severe weather will shift east to southern Wisconsin, Illinois, Missouri and Arkansas. Then possibly moving into parts of Indiana Thursday night. Here is the latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center.