Currently its sunny here in Lawton as morning t-storms have moved well to the east. Clouds have really started to diminish as the lower levels really start to warm. Currently the SPC has far western Oklahoma in a see text. However I think the new update due in the next 30 mins will put all of SW Ok in a Slight risk for severe weather. Looking at the latest RUC 15z it paints a bulls eye for severe weather in SW Ok after 6pm. Moderate CAPE values exceeding 3000, SRH 0-3km over 350 and Strong tornado potential over 3. Those are the pros now the cons to this setup is the strong Cap building in from the southwest and mixing or drying of the boundary layer. Now this could completely keep things calm till at or a little after sunset but there is one more thing to consider. Morning thunderstorms and the advance of the western trough will help advect warm moist air northward against a surface boundary along the Red River. This might help provide surface moisture convergence and help towers break the cap by 5pm this afternoon. Right now the last three runs of the Ruc continue to point the bulls eyes across southwest Oklahoma with storms breaking out by 7pm. So this will continue to be watched and a chase might be on for later this afternoon. More later........
Edit: New map posted above and still think there is a chance that severe storms will fire up in Sw Oklahoma after 6pm. 18z Ruc shows very favorable parameters across the area as the warm front and nose LLJ races northward this evening. The window of svr storms is about 4 hours between 5pm-9pm. Right now Chasing is on hold because its about 1-2 hours west of me and the price of gas. My boss is not liking the chances of storms so I'm not chasing for the station at this time if I go out. So the gas money is out of my pocket so I will wait and see for now.
EDIT: BUST! Nothing develop besides a couple cap starved showers southwest of us south of Childress.
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