Monday, May 26, 2008

Memorial day chase?

Looking at things this morning Storm Prediction Center now has a large slight risk area out from Texas Panhandle east to upstate New York. They had also brought back the moderate risk from NE Texas Panhandle, Northwest OK into southern Kansas. Currently at 11am several boundaries were making things really messing however were starting to come together with areas of strong instability developing. Upper level winds are weaker then they have been over the pass several days but the cap is not as strong. Right now 850mb winds(5000ft) are southwesterly and will have to turn south/southeast to really increase a tornado threat. 500mb winds(18000ft) are really holding back west and could be a problem later this afternoon as they might not overlay with the greatest CAPE axis. They will likely by mid to late afternoon across southern Kansas but there is question is how much effective shear will be along the dry line in the TX panhandle and western Oklahoma. So for now I'm holding back here at home and waiting on things till early afternoon. If I would pick a target right now keeping in mind driving time and gas money. I like area from Buffalo, OK east to Enid, Ok which is about 3 to 3 1/2 hrs north of me. So I'm hoping things start working there way south so I don't have to drive that far......If I do go out and chase I'll try to keep you posted.

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