Here is the Latest Day 2 outlook from the SPC... ( I placed a dot where Lawton is)
The severe threat for tomorrow is starting to look a little more interesting as the models have tended to slow down the cold front. At the same time developed the low pressure a little further north into the Texas Panhandle. This will help increase the moisture, instability and delay the development of post frontal squall line in the Texoma area. The 18z NAM just came out and it continues to tend toward the GFS resolution. It also has reintroduced the chance of super cells and maybe a tornadic risk. At this time the 0-1km shear is marginal and the upper level winds are not the strongest. However looking at the soundings and models the shortwave coming out of the Pacific doesn't seem to being handled well. So there could still be a change in the setup and will likely see the entire setup overall at the 0z models since they actually use weather balloons and upper air soundings. So at this time I do plan on chasing tomorrow and it will likely be around the Wichita Falls area. That is after I get off work as I work in the morning and will be on call until 2pm. So expect another update later this evening or sometime tomorrow morning. Hopefully things really start to add up and we get some really good moisture advection in here overnight.
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