Severe Wx Drifts South of Texoma

No chase took place today as the front continued to slide south and east throughout the morning. As some storm did fire up down across I-20 Abilene and drifted east through the Dallas Fort Worth area. Hail has been reported but reports have been minimal and on the small side. So deciding not to chase was a good decision as this set up never really materialized like was expected. Saturday will be the next small chance of severe weather across the southern plains. However this risk is looking very small due to early timing of the front on Saturday and limited moisture.


Looking ahead to next week the Plains finally start to warm up while the Gulf of Mexico starts to recover. These warm temperatures under dry weather and south winds will likely start to bring much higher dew points north. Severe weather starts to become a focus possibly by the end of next week with a major trough into the Pacific Northwest.

Stay Tuned! One of the slowest starts to the tornado season could start ramping up by early to mid April. If you’re curious if the season will ever really get going. I’m seeing some previous analogs suggesting that May and June could be very active across the Plains.

-Justin-

Increasing Severe Weather Threat Tomorrow?

Increasing south winds and weak cyclone genesis has been up able to pull northward higher dew points across Texas and the Gulf coast then models have been projecting. This being said SPC has placed a slight risk for severe weather for tomorrow across north Texas. I’ll have more on this possible risk of severe weather later….
-Justin-

One More Winter Blitz before Spring Takes Over!

Major late winter/early spring storm developing across the Southern Plains over the next 24-48 hours. As yet another winter storm hits the state of Oklahoma with blizzard conditions. Currently south winds ahead of the front with mostly sunny skies have warmed temperatures into the 60s and 70s. These south winds are introducing some moisture into the atmosphere and with a strong cold front plummeting south. Scattered strong to locally severe storms will quickly develop late this afternoon and evening. The area being watched for some stronger storms is across sw Oklahoma and parts of north Texas. See Map below....

Then as the strong cold front surges south cold air will drain in taking temperatures from the 70s into the 30s within hours. Then as the upper level low dives into North Texas and a surface low redevelops across far northeast Texas. Moderate to Heavy snow will develop from the Texas Panhandle and expand east across Oklahoma. The snow will be very heavy at times and with the upper level low stalling out. Where ever the band sets up will be capable of snowfall amounts over 6 inches. Here is my current thinking this early afternoon of what snowfall amounts will be by Sunday morning.
***Keep in mind some of this will melt on contact especially the southern edge of the snow. So places along and south of the Red River where snow is not as heavy will see less accumulations**

Don't forget there will also be north winds 20-40mph with even higher gusts at times. So blizzard conditions are pretty likely across central and northern Oklahoma. This cold weather will surge south well into Texas with snow showers Saturday afternoon as far south as Abilene and Dallas along I-20. Crazy 36 hours for me here across Texoma and I'll post an update or two if I get a chance. Holy cow I’m so ready for spring to be here as I'm so over winter!

Take care and have a great Friday everyone. -Justin-

Brief Chase Summary from 3-8-10

Here is a brief summary of the chase on Monday March 8th. Conditions had been questionable for the days leading up to the event. However with the long winters lull getting to us my buddy Matt and I decided to head out. We both wanted to get out and make sure all the equipment was working properly. As he now has live streaming setup on his computer and in his truck.

The chase started in Lawton, Oklahoma and headed west on highway 62 towards our target area Altus, Ok. The question was if the atmosphere could recover fast enough after the late morning and early afternoon strong line of showers and t’storms. Matt and I headed west at around 2:30pm as cloudy skies and light rain continued to fall. However once we got about 30 miles west of Lawton skies began to clear and the sun came out giving us hope. Once arriving in Altus we could see a nice cu field starting to get agitated along the dry line. Radar was also starting to verify that the storms were slowly starting to break out and head northeast. You’ll see a couple pictures in the slide show below of what becomes the Hammon supercell. We noticed the nice storm going up be also didn’t want to chase that further away from home in a questionable atmosphere. Especially when there was a flanking line of cu to the south that was moving towards a warming environment with lots of sunshine. Believe if I had known I would have been fine getting home at midnight and sleeping a couple hours before work.

Well those couple of storms jetted north and eventually produced some severe weather reports with that well photographed tornado in Hammon. Which is about 2 hrs north of Altus and about 3 ½ hrs from Lawton if that is any consolation to our decision. Overall we had a blast and it was good to just drive around looking for storms and enjoying good company. I guess its good say I got my first bust out of the way early. =)

CHASE #1 BUST
Miles 183 No Hail, No Wind over 50, No Tornadoes.
Only some CG and moderate rain shower

Low Risk of Severe Weather in Ohio Valley

Despite the clearing skies and the morning rain moving out of the area. Atmospheric conditions will only be marginal for any severe weather and nothing widespread is expected. Upper level winds will be unidirectional and without large amount of moisture or heating. Storm will really have a hard time sustaining themselves to produce large hail or tornadoes. With that being said there is enough cold air aloft and low level directional shear to not rule out some hail and a quick spin up. The most likely area for this to occur will be Central and Southern Illinois into Southern Indiana. As thunderstorms will likely form by 2pm moving northeast and becoming more widespread as they race northeast.  Heavy rains, gusty winds up to 50mph and hail up to one inch possible. If a storm or two can stay organized and discrete from the line of showers and storms. It will have the risk of producing severe weather including an isolated tornado. The risk of severe weather will quickly diminish after 7pm.  Here below is the latest SPC outlook......Stay safe and continue to montior the weather this afternoon.

Severe Threat Today In Ohio Valley and Gulf States

Just quick update on the severe weather possible today across Illinois, Indiana and Kentucky today. There is also another area of severe weather that is possible from Louisana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida. Here is the map of the latest SPC outlook that only has a see text across Indiana and Illinois. Moisture and instability are limiting factors but with strong winds aloft and cold air aloft. A little sunshine will do the trick and with the morning convective line racing northeast that may just happen. Stay tuned!! Another update will be posted early this afternoon for the people up in Ohio Valley.
-Justin-