Snow and More Snow for the South

*Map is of the total snowfall until Wednesday morning**

The winter of 2010 continues to chug along as another very active period continues to set up from now until mid March. Then maybe just maybe the cold and snowy weather starts to retreat a little further now. Until then the coldest temperatures relative to average and heaviest precipitation will be from the California to Texas to the Carolinas. Texas and Louisiana will continue to be one of the wettest locations and possibly one of the snowiest over the next 10 days. Storm #1 currently moving across the Southwest will moves across the Southern plains tonight and through the day tomorrow. Producing accumulating snows across I-20 in Texas and as far south as Austin and Houston. Then weakening but still producing some snow across Louisiana and Mississippi. So one of the snowiest winters on record for many parts of North Texas continues to be added onto with another 1-4 inches possible by tomorrow afternoon.


Storm #2 moves in a little further north on Thursday across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. Some warmer air will be able to build ahead of the low pressure system. So rain will be a bigger part of this storm at first until you get into Northern Oklahoma and Kansas Thursday afternoon. However as the low slowly strengthens and drifts southeast some colder weather will likely change the rain further south to snow. So accumulating will fall from Thursday night and through Friday from parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. Parts of Texas will likely see just mainly light rains. Then on Friday the accumulating snow move from Northeast Oklahoma to parts of Arkansas and again across northern Louisiana.

Storm #3 is possibly papa bear and could be a major late winter snow storm from coast to coast. That could create heavy rains, severe weather, ice and heavy snows. So stay tuned as March could come in like a lion across a good portion of the United States.

What does the next 30 and 90 days have in store for us?

These graphics are from the Climate Prediction Center which came out today. Definitely agree on the cooler than average temperatures east of the Rockies the next 30 days. The southern jet stream will be very active through early spring. So you can expect wet weather from California to Carolina and an active pattern. I also believe that parts of the I-20 corridor from Texas to Georgia could not be done with the ice and snow. We'll see but here are a couple things to chew on until I get back in town next week.

Have a great weekend!

Justin

Welcome to the website Chasing The Meso (Under the influence of Mother Nature)

Hello and welcome to my website if you're here for the first time. This website is designed to provide medium and long range forecasts during active weather across the Central and Eastern US. Plus during spring and summer seasons I’ll post severe weather forecasts and blog my chasing adventures. So feel free to look around and check out my prior chases over the last couple of years.

Currently I'm in the process of reorganizing and better preparing for this upcoming storm season. So expect some changes coming in the next month and better chase summaries.

Thanks again for taking a look at my website and have a great day!

Justin Rudicel

Despite the warmer weather another winter storm is on the way!

The January thaw is underway as temperatures will finally crack the freezing mark for much of the lower 48 states by mid week. Below is the high temperatures map forecasted by the GFS on Thursday afternoon.

Besides the nice warm up a significant winter storm is on the way to traverse the southern United States and up the East coast. A strong upper level storm will start to develop as it crashes into the desert southwest and into southwest Texas by mid week. This will help develop an area of low pressure just off the Gulf coast of Texas by Thursday night. Developing rain all across the east parts of Texas into Louisiana. By Friday the rain spreads further north and as the upper level matures and cools. The rain will change to snow across portions of the Texas Panhandle, Oklahoma and parts of Northern Texas by Saturday morning. The low pressure path based on how I interpret the upper level pattern across North America and the latest ensemble packages will start in south Texas. Then head east into the northern Gulf then northeast up the west side of the Appalachian Mountains. A transfer of energy will likely occur from the original low pressure in eastern Kentucky to a new low pressure off the North Carolina coast. This will likely be a heavy precipitation maker with a strip of heavy snows on the north side. The bitterly cold temperatures and strong winds will likely be missing so I’m not expecting blizzard conditions. Right now accumulating snows will likely break out from around Amarillo and Abilene then run northeast into parts of Oklahoma and far northern Texas into Arkansas on Friday. The snow will likely become a little heavier and a little more widespread across parts of the Ohio and north Tennessee Valley by Saturday. This will eventually head into the Mid-Atlantic and probably interior northeast west of I-95 by late weekend.

Now this is just a rough outline of a possible storm system that is over 5 days from even starting to develop. So there are still tons of questions about the upcoming storm system. However after looking at the pattern and ensembles I’m pretty confident about a significant storm coming out of the Gulf by late week. This could put down greater then 6 inches of snow in Ohio Valley and into the interior northeast by the weekend.

I’ll have more as the week goes on.

Have a great Sunday! Justin

Winter's Coldest on the Way

The Siberian Express is on the way to the US with a nasty snow storm in front of it. Models and Mets are starting to catch up to this winter storm. That will produce a large swath of 4-8 inch some higher amounts of wind blown snows from the Central Plains east to the Ohio and tennessee Valley then into the Mid Atlantic. This snow will be combined with falling temperatures and winds gusting over 35mph. As the coldest temperatures in over a decade works its way in the US east of the Rockies

This will be a wind whipped snow storm with temperatures falling through the teens. As visibilities will be reduced to near zero at times with wind chills dipping below zero. This is a very dangerous winter storm and the dangerous will continue after the snowfall starts. With temperatures falling well below zero in many hours of the Plains and even into the Ohio and Tennessee valley.  Orange crops in southern Texas and especially Florida are in big trouble. Temperatures by Friday and Saturday night could be well into the middle 20s are far south as central Florida. Hope Mickey Mouse has Minnie or a nice sweater to kick him warm.

Records will fall and Mickey mouse will be shivering.


Have a great Evening!  Justin

Christmas Blizzard and A Possible Severe Weather Outbreak Is On The Way

Well is this weather pattern busy enough for you? This pattern should be of no surprise since it was advertised and predicted since early November on here. So here we go again with another winter storm just like we experience about two weeks ago. As a low pressure develops on the newest surge of arctic air working it’s way south. On Friday I posted about the two scenarios based on the pattern and model data. It’s looking like Storm path #1 is the model choice with some tweaking from me.

Wednesday an area of low pressure will develop around Lubbock, Texas and work its way towards far southeast Oklahoma. This is when the trough goes negative and the models and I expect a bomb genesis of the low pressure to occur. As the low pressure goes from a 1003mb low near W.F. to 989 mb low near Springfield, Missouri. Then will start to fill back in as it occludes and drifts north into far northwest Illinois.

Now before I get to the snow I want to make sure people know about the severe weather possibilities. I’m starting to get pretty concerned about a mini tornado outbreak across portions of eastern Texas. By Wednesday evening the low really starts to strengthen and winds really start to pick up and turn with height. The area of concern will be from I-35 in Texas from Dallas to San Antonio eastward. The potential will continue overnight into southwestern Arkansas and into Louisiana. This will continues Thursday across the Mississippi Valley with the threat of Damaging winds and isolated Tornadoes. Here is the latest SPC outlook for Wednesday.

As the upper level low matures the cold air will really start to filter in behind the storm by Wednesday night. It will change the wrap around moisture into moderate to occasionally heavy snow across portions of Western Oklahoma into parts of Kansas. This will continue to drift north and slowly east into Kansas, Iowa, Eastern Nebraska and far Northwest Missouri by Christmas eve evening. The swath of the heaviest snows will likely run from Northwest Oklahoma to western Kansas to central and eastern Nebraska and a good portion of Iowa. Parts of Kansas, Iowa and Nebraska will likely have over a of foot of wind blown snow. As temperatures fall into the teens with wind chills to near zero.

I’ll have more on this over the next couple of days as this is a big time winter storm. As it will affect flights and driving conditions across a good portion of the country during the Christmas. If this wasn’t enough you should see what I have in the cards for New Year’s week. From California to Carolina could be seeing snow as southern mauler could be in the works. Right before the coldest Arctic air enough that make penguins shiver moves in the first 10 days of the year 2010.

Good night- Justin