I'm back and so is the severe weather

Models for the last couple of weeks have been teasing a last gasp of the storm season. With the climatological season quickly coming a end this last gasp better come quickly. As of tonight I really believe that we will see some increase in severe weather over the next 10-14 days over the Plains. As the ensembles, GFS and JAM are all on board in breaking down the Mexico High/Ridge and dumping the trough into the west. The questions will be how much will the jet flatten out over the East and how far east will the trough in the West be? I'm really questioning with the latest indications of the NAO trying to go negative if we can get out of the NW flow. The Western High Plains will be will the NW Flow turn off the real Gulf of Mexico moisture train. Those of you weather geeks know this is a similar situation that happened over the early Spring.

However there is some positive signs if you're hoping for more chasing or severe weather. In the next 6-14 days as the dailies of the SOI have gone strongly Positive. Generally when this happens the trough can anchor itself in the Western US. Unfortunately with the SOI already going neutral or slightly negative this pattern will be short lived. As with the El Nino coming on the theme of the summer will be cool northeast and hot southwest. With the severe weather focused in the Great Lakes and Northeast with the dominant northwest flow.

This week we'll see a little bit of severe weather over the Southern Plains Monday and Tuesday. A weak flow and cold front charging south will limited the severe weather to mainly a large hail and damaging wind threat. Then by next week the trough enters the West coast and the flow should start to flatten out. This will allow the moisture to climb northward and start to interact with stronger flow overtop of it.

So maybe there is some hope for the start of June and lets try to not to dwell on the horrible month of May.

Major Outbreak of Severe Storms Later Today

Major outbreak of severe storms is looking likely from Illinois southwest to Oklahoma. Damaging winds and very large hail look to be the biggest factors. However a couple areas will have an increased tornadic threat towards sunset. One area will be from far western Illinois near St. Louis to Joplin, Missouri. Another one which is very conditional will be From just east of Oklahoma city southwest to Frederick, Oklahoma. Here is the latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center plus Hail threat then Tornado Threat..... To get the latest information click on the link SPC

Another chase another chase without seeing a tornado

May 1st 2009 chase had promise but in the end the lack upper level winds were its downfall. Chase went down into west north Texas around the city of Seymour. Here are the pictures and captions telling a little about the chase.

May 1st Chase