Winter Forecast

STAY TUNED.... IN PROGRESS AND WILL BE POSTED SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 1ST.

Second Season Has Started

Well the Fall Season is underway as parts of the county have seen a slight increase in severe weather during the past week. One of these locations was right here in Lawton as isolated small supercells developed at rush hour. I ended up helping with on-air coverage of the severe weather as nickel to golf ball size hail was reported in several locations across Lawton. These storms eventually moved east into the adjacent county in which produced some more reports of hail. At times these storms showed decent rotation however nothing at the lower levels never tightened up. Here is a picture I took from my Apartment as I came home after the weather event.

So now its on to the next severe weather event that actually could be only a couple days away. A major storm system is diving into the Pacific Northwest currently with a very strong early Fall jet stream. This will bring plenty of wind driven rains across most of the Northwest and even as far south as California. Several variables at this time with this storm so I'm going to keep this brief and vague. Strong jet stream will dive and around this very cold upper level system as it because sort of stalled out over the West side of the Rockies. A strong south flow will develop ahead of this across the Plains providing us here in Texoma with strong south winds, warm temperatures and increasing moisture. Another variable will be now Hurricane Norbert in the Eastern Pacific south of the tip of Baja. This will likely get caught up in the 500mb flow by late Friday into Saturday. As the moisture, clouds and energy gets absorbed into the southwest flow. Looking over data, thinking back at past events, plus talking a good friend which I trust alot in forecasting. Which he brings up some good points on how this energy from Norbert could enhance the jet ahead of the main upper level low. Just enough that severe weather could be possible across parts of Texoma and the Texas Panhandle by Saturday evening. I'm kinda sceptic about that possibility but it has my interest. What I have been watching is the prospects of Heavy rain and severe weather across Texoma Sunday into Tuesday. Right now cloud cover, mid level temperatures and energy hanging back into the West is not favoring alot of widespread severe weather for Texoma. Biggest threat is starting to look like isolated severe weather with large hail and damaging winds on Sunday and Monday. With flooding being bigger issue across the region by Monday with some very heavy rain totals exceeding 5 inches in places due to training of storms due to the excess of tropical moisture. I'll have more details in the coming days on chase possibilities and the chances of severe weather across Texoma. Currently SPC is not really excited about the possibilities of severe weather and currently have none of the region under a threat of severe through Tuesday.

For now I'm going to enjoy this beautiful Fall weather we're having here today. Have a great day!