tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-57979192028118519722011-10-26T02:01:01.914-05:00"Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get." — Mark TwainJustin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.comBlogger1951100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-65165087773653545702011-05-23T13:27:00.000-05:002011-05-23T13:27:31.775-05:00

 Today might be just a tease of what could happen if the models play out tomorrow afternoon across the Great Plains. I'll be out chasing today across sw Oklahoma and maybe far north Texas. Tomorrow the dryline presses east and I'll be chasing across central Oklahoma. Where tornadoes look likely with any supercell that develops. Today the tornado threat is lower but still nothing to take lightly

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-72154147449919702022011-05-17T17:27:00.000-05:002011-05-17T17:27:48.423-05:00

Ya I've been a big slacker on this website in posting new blogs. Just haven't really needed too and been busy doing other things. Plus the severe to exceptional drought here in the southern Plains really hasn't made me post much. Currently for 2011 I have only been out in the field chasing twice & one was a blue sky bust. I'll have the summary on my second chase of the year on here by Thursday. I

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-9782267528308988162011-05-10T18:07:00.000-05:002011-05-10T18:07:15.879-05:00

After a quieter day than anticipated tomorrow looks like it definitely has the possibility of being a very active one. Currently the SPC has a good portion of Oklahoma under a slight risk with a smaller area under a moderate risk. The only thing I will say about the SPC outlook and graphic below from the NWS in OKC is that the dryline will likely be further west. Models did a lousy job on the

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-21784147953012816732011-04-18T14:00:00.000-05:002011-04-18T14:00:10.127-05:00

While the Southern Plains continues to bake & burn in the midst of a severe drought. Relief could be on the way here in the next 5 to 10 days. Which is much needed looking at the latest drought index. Parts of Oklahoma and Texas have had less than one inch of rain since the middle October. This is the driest it's been for the months of December-March since 1921. While parts of the Ohio,

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-57080238582966157102011-04-08T13:53:00.000-05:002011-04-08T13:53:16.863-05:00

Slight chance of an isolated severe t'storm still exist close to home this afternoon. So with plenty of instability, weak CAP and dryline for a trigger. I plan on being out by 4pm central time chasing what I hope is a nice big supercell.  Don't forget you can watch my streaming video here on this website just click on Live Cams on the top. Currently SPC doesn't have any area near SW Oklahoma

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-13602273104990395092011-04-03T10:28:00.001-05:002011-04-03T10:29:08.960-05:00

Spring has been fairly slow in regards to severe weather but that could be changing over the next week or two. As the pesky cold air and trough in the east is showing signs of breaking down with the mean trough developing into the west. This is supported by the NAO going positive and the PNA going negative forecasted by the models. So tonight's into Monday severe weather event could be the start

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-75824476436196819832011-03-30T17:45:00.001-05:002011-03-30T17:47:46.710-05:00

Models continue to be iffy with the timing of the upper level energy, deepth of moisture and a pretty stout cap. However with the amount CAPE, Upper level winds and a Dryline nearby. I'm watching closely Sunday afternoon for a possible isolated Supercell from southwest Ok into N. Texas. Here are some maps from the latest 18z GFS that shows a very powerful atmosphere with a nice lid but not

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-22359098797544959852011-03-17T17:32:00.000-05:002011-03-17T17:32:52.469-05:00

Looking at the latest 8-14 analogs and GFS ensembles the dry conditions across the south look to continue. As the NAO continues to disrupt the overall moisture feed from the Gulf with a high pressure over it.   From the March 2011 Enso Update "The moderate to strong La Niña conditions that were observed betweeen mid-August 2010 and early February 2011 have weakened to weak to moderate

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-46480371131282118592011-03-11T17:03:00.002-06:002011-03-11T19:09:24.991-06:00

Over the last couple of days the 8-14 day analog have been increasingly pointing to an active period across the Plains and into the Midwest. So I took the top four years on the list and looked up the storm reports centered on that date. As you can see by the examples below a stormier period could be on the way.     Storm reports and the overall weather pattern looks to be changing to a more

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-38692720397098947102011-03-07T11:43:00.001-06:002011-03-07T15:17:03.781-06:00

Severe Weather Safety Guide Just like a fire, an earthquake or an automobile accident, a tornado is a low probability, high impact event. Chances are, you will never experience a tornado. Even if you live in the heart of tornado alley, the chances that your house will be struck by a tornado are small. However you still need to be ready just in case you hit winning lottery ticket. Your tornado

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-89217227023297444602011-03-02T11:27:00.000-06:002011-03-02T11:27:54.599-06:00

Well played Mother Nature...Well Played... After looking over this morning 12z models. The threat of severe weather anywhere in the southern Plains has almost vanished. Yesterday it looked amazing & today it looks like Horse sh@t. =) Very complicated jet stream out in the Pacific so changes could occur. However the chances don't look good at this time to be chasing anytime this week. Here is the

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-61989103766620312642011-03-01T12:27:00.000-06:002011-03-01T12:27:05.596-06:00

March 1st represents the start of the meteorological Spring season (March 1st- May 31st) and in the chaser world "Storm Season". Looking ahead to this coming Friday the 12z models have come to a mild agreement that supercells could form in western Oklahoma. Here are some the maps from the 84 hr NAM So to celebrate the start of another storm season on the Southern Plains. I figured I would

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-49269898874035416742010-12-09T16:03:00.001-06:002010-12-09T16:05:58.401-06:00

Typically by 3 days out the model would have differences but no more than 50-75 miles. Currently some of the models have over 300 miles differences in them. So right now I'm really reluctant to post any snowfall forecast based on huge differences there could be. What I will post on here is what I know, what I think and some kind of broad forecast for all that is interested. First lets start

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-81879992577398502812010-12-08T17:07:00.000-06:002010-12-08T17:07:22.575-06:00

I will not change my initial forecast from Monday with the first low pressure riding from the Plains through the Ohio Valley and turning northeast. As the energy transfers to another area of low pressure deepens off the East coast to the north. Some models have continued to slow down the strengthening of the first low pressure. Thus the track will be more west to east from northern Oklahoma to

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-31261255721008150742010-12-08T11:15:00.000-06:002010-12-08T11:15:59.799-06:00

I receieved an email from Severe Studios(The website I use to stream my dash cam while chasing) stating I was the 22nd most popular streamer (based on number of unique viewers) out of over 400 on SevereStudios.com during the 2010 storm season. SevereStudios This year has also been a good one for the website as well with over 4,000 viewers since Jan. 1st! Thanks to everyone that continues to

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-42043004909665417272010-12-07T17:38:00.001-06:002010-12-07T17:51:37.810-06:00

Models continue to converge on a major winter storm from the Ohio Valley and into the Interior Northeast over the weekend. I continue to like my original snowfall forecast from yesterday with the areas along and north of I-70 across Illinois, Indiana, Ohio getting the heaviest snowfall and expanded into the interior Northeast. Snowfall behind the low pressure will likely fall into Tennessee and

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-76711696327020525322010-12-06T16:25:00.005-06:002010-12-06T17:39:41.676-06:00

During the previous week, several analogs and even the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center have mentioned the upcoming pattern very similar to a major winter storm late in the Fall of 1950. This crippling storm knocked out power to more than 1,000,000 customers during this event. In all, the storm impacted 22 states, killing 353, and creating US$66.7 million in damage (1950 dollars). http://

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-3021951345090261012010-11-17T15:55:00.003-06:002010-11-17T16:01:53.673-06:00

Here comes the Arctic Chill as forecasted earlier this month on here...See Forecast Post Per NAO and AO as you can see below which would indicate arctic intrusion and trough in the east. And it looks like this will continue into the start of December as higher pressures in Alaska continues the arctic slide south with the NAO staying negative. Looking towards Thanksgiving week,

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-45060046989814217452010-11-08T17:38:00.001-06:002010-11-08T17:41:16.058-06:00

As mentioned last week, an active pattern is setting up across the central portion of the US. Current temperatures during the warmest part of the day are quite cold across Canada as you can see below. This build up of cold air is just asking to be sent south and some will over the next couple of weeks. The kicker will be an active jet stream and low pressure across the interior west of the

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-25810508907959349352010-11-03T17:48:00.000-05:002010-11-03T17:48:24.558-05:00

The first nor'easter of the year is about to develop across the East as cold modified air rushes in from Canada. This will likely produce the first snow flurries all across the Ohio Valley and eventually as far south as the Appalachians and into the interior Northeast. What I have my eyes on is a developing cold air mass in NW Canada and Pacific Jet stream that will likely buckle by mid month.

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-89915787476813674342010-10-26T15:20:00.000-05:002010-10-26T15:20:36.965-05:00

This is a storm now stronger than the infamous "Edmund Fitzgerald" storm in Nov. 1975 and an even stronger version almost exactly 23 years after that in Nov. 1998. Its central pressure is also on par with the infamous Superstorm of 1993, and is lower than the last 4 hurricanes of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. Currently the pressure is down to 957mb which puts it second on the list of lowest

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-47097305420405248262010-10-26T04:02:00.002-05:002010-10-26T05:44:44.255-05:00

SPC Now has a large portion of Indiana under a High Risk for later this morning. As a large line of severe t'storms continue to race to the east across Illinois currently. This will meet up with increasingly warm and moist air as the morning wears on. Creating a very potent and a potentially life threatening situation with damaging winds and strong tornadoes looking likely. I'll have more details

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-63728533191664791412010-10-25T14:54:00.000-05:002010-10-25T14:54:10.690-05:00

Statement from the Chicago National Weather Service PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1030 AM CDT MON OCT 25 2010 HOW THE UPCOMING CYCLONE RANKS AMONG OTHER NOTABLE CYCLONES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. RANK EVENT DATE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1. GREAT OHIO BLIZZARD 1/26/1978 950 HPA /28.05 IN/ 2. UPCOMING EVENT 10/26-27/2010 959 HPA* /28.35 IN/ 3.

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-49112264525050839602010-10-21T15:05:00.001-05:002010-10-21T15:13:40.597-05:00

An Upper Level Low and strengthening jet stream overhead will bring widespread showers and t'storms to the Southern Plains over the next 24 hours. This afternoon and through the evening some severe weather is possible across the Texas Panhandle into far western north Texas and western Oklahoma. Hail up to golf balls and gusty winds up to 65 mph will be possible. The tornado threat does look very

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-83649497288012536192010-10-19T15:56:00.002-05:002010-10-19T16:51:55.737-05:00

 With the Spring severe weather season a distant memory, the Fall severe weather season(also know as the second season) is about to take off. A strengthening jet for the past week over the Pacific is about to crash into North American. This along with the gathering cold air across Canada will set up a battle zone across the US for the next two weeks. Currently an upper level low sits across the

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-55856282783173506272010-10-13T16:59:00.000-05:002010-10-13T16:59:47.725-05:00

Models and Ensembles starting to show some true signs of the first Cold outbreak across the East. This looks to take shape the week leading up to Halloween. Temperatures during this period across the Northern Plains, Ohio Valley and into the Northeast could be up to 20 degrees below normal. The pattern luckily won't stick around at least at that intensity. However will likely produce the first

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-23437305557528175342010-10-07T16:57:00.000-05:002010-10-07T16:57:20.453-05:00

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-65821245067609938022010-09-18T19:05:00.002-05:002010-10-13T06:45:30.875-05:00

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-36424723498687667992010-06-15T09:27:00.000-05:002010-06-15T09:27:19.869-05:00

Sorry for the lack of posts but the lack of sleep and me just spaced it on Saturday and Sunday morning. It was another great time with Becky and was glad that my buddy BJ got to come along as well. I'll be working on a complete day by day summary of the trip and lots of pictures to come. However this will take a good week to complete so it'll give you something to look forward too.

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-84902372722884503222010-06-11T10:29:00.000-05:002010-06-11T10:29:10.171-05:00

Greetings from Aurora, Colorado (Far east side of Denver) Well finally a fun day of chasing as we experienced some very nice storm structure, couple mid level funnels, quarter to golf ball size hail and a couple rugged wall clouds. Unfortunately we stayed on the first tornado warned storm too long. As another storm developed about 45 minutes south of us that did produce a couple tornadoes.

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-91000192229275959782010-06-10T10:18:00.000-05:002010-06-10T10:18:37.488-05:00

What a nice surprise to wake up to this morning as SPC has upgraded the slight risk to a moderate risk. We're currently in almost perfect position this morning as the drive to the storms should be pretty quick. So right now I'm finally getting my oil changed and relaxing in gorgeous Fort Collins, Colorado. Today the trough finally starts to make it's appearance as the upper and mid level winds

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0Fort Collins, CO, USA40.5852602 -105.08442340.4548932 -105.3178825 40.7156272 -104.8509635tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-86080677250119423132010-06-09T20:10:00.001-05:002010-06-09T20:17:15.174-05:00

Cap-2 Chasers-0 Well the lid on the atmosphere once again won as the cu towers just couldn't get going across the front range of the Rockies. So we're in for the night watching the Blackhawks game( Go Hawks!!) here in Fort Collins,Colorado. So nothing really to discuss and I'm to be honest a little aggravated. I thought one of the first days would produce at least an isolated strong storm.

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-65354901415951229172010-06-09T09:26:00.000-05:002010-06-09T09:26:34.373-05:00

Well greetings from lovely Dodge City, Kansas. Yesterday was pretty boring day as we left Oklahoma City roughly around 2pm. Headed west on I-40 then north to Buffalo, Oklahoma where we watched a couple elevated showers develop and quickly die out within an hours time. At that time I made the call that we just head north to Dodge City. Get some food, a hotel and a good nights sleep. Which here I

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-24477574698690837192010-06-08T10:56:00.002-05:002010-06-08T11:03:45.472-05:00

Greetings everyone and welcome to the fun adventures of Justin, Becky and BJ. Later this afternoon we'll leave Lawton, Oklahoma for 6 days on a road trip of fun and hopefully some crazy chasing. Right now I just got home from work and putting the final things in the car. BJ had a slight detour overnight and has placed him about 3 hours behind schedule. While Becky my niece is on a flight

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-12239948932343956162010-06-05T08:53:00.000-05:002010-06-05T08:53:52.333-05:00

Looking at the latest models and current observations, conditions are starting to line themselves up for a widespread wind event from Illinois to Ohio. Isolated tornadoes will be possible along with large hail however those threat will likely be early on in the storm development. Mainly across SE Iowa and Illinois before they mature cluster and produce a damaging derecho that will race east

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-73497107526140970732010-06-04T10:34:00.001-05:002010-06-04T10:59:57.141-05:00

A busy stretch for me as my website took the toll of it. As my computer crashed, was working doubles with severe weather and I just got back from vacation. So I'm trying to get my recent chases together and write summaries for each of them. This year has been another slow one for down in the Texoma region. Late start and what is looking like a very fast end to the storm season. However when we

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-16235174887217382312010-05-11T10:20:00.001-05:002010-05-11T10:31:11.701-05:00

SPC has issued a slight risk for severe weather today across portions of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas.  High instability will develop bring a retreating warm front across Oklahoma and northern Texas this afternoon. Very high CAPE numbers > 4,500 and EHI values >3 will create an environment cable of explosive storms if they do develop. With the lack of any main triggers in the atmosphere storms will

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-38405601211323940562010-05-10T13:07:00.000-05:002010-05-10T13:07:22.207-05:00

Not going to get into the details because all the parameters we look at for severe weather is in the high to extreme level. Especially across northern and central Oklahoma into southern parts of Kansas. I'll be out chasing for the station so my chasing area is a little limited to south of OKC to the Red River and west of I-35. Here is the latest SPC outlook Will be out chasing around 2:30pm 

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-89045180901859774782010-05-09T17:52:00.000-05:002010-05-09T17:52:15.541-05:00

I'll wait for tomorrow before I give the details of this severe weather setup and where I plan on chasing for the station. In the meantime here is a map that I made this morning based on Saturday evening's 0z runs of the models......The current trends continue to press the dryline and 850 trough to the east. So storms will likely form on or just east of I-44 from OKC south to the Red River.

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-44551674281060842352010-05-07T12:22:00.000-05:002010-05-07T12:22:52.363-05:00

Threat continues to increases across Indiana and Ohio for Super Cells and possible tornadoes by Mid to Late Afternoon. Here is the Latest Outlook from SPC.

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-18108685507015341332010-05-03T17:51:00.006-05:002010-05-03T18:05:31.818-05:00

On May 3, 1999, multiple supercell thunderstorms produced many large and damaging tornadoes in central Oklahoma during the late afternoon and evening hours. Some of these storms were killers, including the twisters which moved through and/or near Dover, Shawnee, Perry and Bridge Creek, and the Moore and southern Oklahoma City metropolitan areas. Additional tornadoes also hit areas

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-71951388054551998962010-04-26T15:12:00.006-05:002010-04-26T15:32:06.279-05:00

Chase #2 of the Season Summary- Success A Slight risk eventually become a moderate for our area by the 20z update from SPC. So Finally a decent setup and it lived up to it's billing as our first intersect of a tornado of the year. Although be it several miles away it was the best we could do with the lack of roads. It also didn't help that the beast was in the middle of no where cruising at

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-13860152915109316612010-04-26T06:27:00.001-05:002010-04-26T15:27:00.732-05:00

Today marks the 19th anniversary of the famous Andover tornado. That provided some incredible tornado videos that I become obsessed with growing up and part of the reason I'm a meteorologist today. The 1991 Andover, Kansas tornado outbreak was a violent outbreak of 55 tornadoes which took place on April 26, 1991, killing 24 people and injuring hundreds more. The Andover outbreak was featured in

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-60683526904483761922010-04-23T16:11:00.000-05:002010-04-23T16:11:27.606-05:00

Full summary and pictures coming up later this weekend but for now here are a couple videos from our HP Beast. Chase # 2 4-22-10

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-68036408050456531232010-04-22T13:35:00.001-05:002010-04-22T13:37:02.682-05:00

Early this afternoon, conditions were starting to heat up as the low stratus deck continues to burn off. A powerful jet stream continues to barrel underneath a large trough in the desert southwest. This jet stream will turn the corner and spread right over top a moderately unstable air mass by mid afternoon. One thing that is really encouraging to me is the strong divergence aloft as the jet

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-61680011966909312042010-04-20T16:38:00.000-05:002010-04-20T16:38:27.565-05:00

After a nice weekend out of town and away from the internet it’s time to get prepared for the next chase adventure. Models are starting to converge on a likely chase day this coming Thursday across the southern Plains. Here is a map of the current thinking of the greatest threat area. During Wednesday night into Thursday morning as WAA takes over and the trough starts to lower

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-41924580254377576562010-04-13T12:09:00.006-05:002010-04-13T12:17:53.849-05:00

The 1930s were times of tremendous hardship on the Great Plains. Settlers dealt not only with the Great Depression, but also with years of drought that plunged an already-suffering society into an onslaught of relentless dust storms for days and months on end. They were known as dirt storms, sand storms, black blizzards, and “dusters.” It seemed as if it could get no worse, but on

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-18870965424633802202010-04-10T11:12:00.000-05:002010-04-10T11:12:08.856-05:00

The Red River Valley tornado outbreak of April 10, 1979 is one of the most significant tornado outbreaks that ever occurred in western north Texas and southern Oklahoma. To commemorate this event, the National Weather Service in Norman, Oklahoma has complied a large amount of information including: tornado photos of the Wichita Falls, Vernon, Seymour, and Harrold, TX tornadoes;

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-49407948554378830422010-04-07T12:59:00.000-05:002010-04-07T12:59:30.856-05:00

The risk of severe weather this afternoon is building across Illinois, Indiana and parts of western Kentucky. Here is a statement from SPC in there latest severe weather outlook with a map below. "VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL IL IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON MLCAPE

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-12734590469998982412010-04-06T15:24:00.004-05:002010-04-06T15:26:49.490-05:00

Possible Chase along the dry line up I-44 towards south of OKC here in the next couple of hours.  Stay Tune! NEW MD..CLICK HERE

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-11930631640270436272010-04-05T15:28:00.001-05:002010-04-05T15:29:28.321-05:00

Tornado Watch Until 9pm CDTNew tornado watch has been issued for portions of Illinois as a warm front is starting to retreat north. Conditions are becoming moderately unstable under a moistening atmosphere to produce t'storms and some supercells. Right now the biggest risk of tornadoes is across Illinois and points west but the threat is there east to around Cincy along the warm

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-77608419941744529172010-04-04T15:10:00.000-05:002010-04-04T15:10:48.015-05:00

Alert mode now upgraded to (Orange) Chase possible within the next 48 hours Target Area: Western Oklahoma- This Evening (10% chance of chasing)                    Western Oklahoma- Monday  (40% chance of chasing)                     Texoma- Tuesday  (80% chance of chasing) Well the moisture continues to surge north this afternoon as 60 degree dew points are now in southeastern Kansas. Here in

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-36723024656321239062010-03-31T15:34:00.001-05:002010-03-31T15:35:08.032-05:00

Check it out and leave a comment below telling me what you think about their prediction. AccuWeather Tornado Season Prediction

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-7551424307646259782010-03-24T18:34:00.000-05:002010-03-24T18:34:06.486-05:00

No chase took place today as the front continued to slide south and east throughout the morning. As some storm did fire up down across I-20 Abilene and drifted east through the Dallas Fort Worth area. Hail has been reported but reports have been minimal and on the small side. So deciding not to chase was a good decision as this set up never really materialized like was expected. Saturday will be

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-77940815157933446942010-03-23T13:50:00.000-05:002010-03-23T13:50:39.870-05:00

Increasing south winds and weak cyclone genesis has been up able to pull northward higher dew points across Texas and the Gulf coast then models have been projecting. This being said SPC has placed a slight risk for severe weather for tomorrow across north Texas. I’ll have more on this possible risk of severe weather later…. -Justin-

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-22115743675353762412010-03-19T12:14:00.001-05:002010-03-19T12:19:04.969-05:00

Major late winter/early spring storm developing across the Southern Plains over the next 24-48 hours. As yet another winter storm hits the state of Oklahoma with blizzard conditions. Currently south winds ahead of the front with mostly sunny skies have warmed temperatures into the 60s and 70s. These south winds are introducing some moisture into the atmosphere and with a strong cold front

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-85707146806828429342010-03-12T18:31:00.000-06:002010-03-12T18:31:57.737-06:00

Here is a brief summary of the chase on Monday March 8th. Conditions had been questionable for the days leading up to the event. However with the long winters lull getting to us my buddy Matt and I decided to head out. We both wanted to get out and make sure all the equipment was working properly. As he now has live streaming setup on his computer and in his truck. The chase started in Lawton,

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-80084255203091644452010-03-11T12:25:00.000-06:002010-03-11T12:25:13.821-06:00

Despite the clearing skies and the morning rain moving out of the area. Atmospheric conditions will only be marginal for any severe weather and nothing widespread is expected. Upper level winds will be unidirectional and without large amount of moisture or heating. Storm will really have a hard time sustaining themselves to produce large hail or tornadoes. With that being said there is enough

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-15518825373500952702010-03-11T07:35:00.000-06:002010-03-11T07:35:42.223-06:00

Just quick update on the severe weather possible today across Illinois, Indiana and Kentucky today. There is also another area of severe weather that is possible from Louisana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida. Here is the map of the latest SPC outlook that only has a see text across Indiana and Illinois. Moisture and instability are limiting factors but with strong winds aloft and cold air aloft

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-81644619564621472922010-03-08T15:35:00.002-06:002010-03-08T15:43:39.559-06:00

Follow us Chasing via Live Streaming Heading West towards Altus to see if the dry slot fires up something nice towards sunset. Right now dryline has stalled across far western Oklahoma. As temperatures continue to rebound slowly behind a line of showers and thunderstorms. Will the atmosphere recover enough to produce something nice, time will tell but enjoy the nice view from our camera. All I

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-79575353717815068902010-03-08T11:28:00.000-06:002010-03-08T11:28:31.945-06:00

The first chase of 2010 could be only hours away as conditions are a little bit better than what the models we suggesting yesterday. So with that said i'm watching conditions very closely as if storm do go severe they'll likely be in my backyard(Western Ok and North Texas). So no reason not to chase with the storm so close. Here is the latest SPC outlook that includes a 2% tornado risk for all of

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-58049273623806347952010-03-05T11:55:00.001-06:002010-03-05T11:58:37.309-06:00

Warmer temperatures and a different weather pattern is starting to show early Spring conditions across the Central Plains today. A small but potent storm system comes out of the Rockies into Nebraska and Kansas during peak heating.   A more potent storm system moves into the Southern Plains Sunday and into Monday. This will have more moisture and better dynamics to deal with. Heavy rains look

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-12926960320558166662010-03-03T14:29:00.003-06:002010-03-03T15:17:23.499-06:00

Click on the link below for the full story... 2001-2010 was the Snowiest on Record

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-34241491507685521482010-03-01T18:29:00.000-06:002010-03-01T18:29:28.097-06:00

Welcome to the unofficial start of storm season for the lower 48 states. Oh ya by the way it’s the start of meteorological spring as well. Typically by the start of March we start to see the storm track a little further north and storm become a little stronger. As the battle of air masses starts to heat up as daylight hours really start to lengthen. Right now the United States has seen a fairly

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-63535194184242410942010-02-22T17:42:00.000-06:002010-02-22T17:42:27.503-06:00

*Map is of the total snowfall until Wednesday morning** The winter of 2010 continues to chug along as another very active period continues to set up from now until mid March. Then maybe just maybe the cold and snowy weather starts to retreat a little further now. Until then the coldest temperatures relative to average and heaviest precipitation will be from the California to Texas to the

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-3975141548806370942010-02-18T16:54:00.005-06:002010-02-18T17:12:41.252-06:00

These graphics are from the Climate Prediction Center which came out today. Definitely agree on the cooler than average temperatures east of the Rockies the next 30 days. The southern jet stream will be very active through early spring. So you can expect wet weather from California to Carolina and an active pattern. I also believe that parts of the I-20 corridor from Texas

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-30946038178875514462010-02-16T11:43:00.000-06:002010-02-16T11:43:07.566-06:00

Hello and welcome to my website if you're here for the first time. This website is designed to provide medium and long range forecasts during active weather across the Central and Eastern US. Plus during spring and summer seasons I’ll post severe weather forecasts and blog my chasing adventures. So feel free to look around and check out my prior chases over the last couple of years. Currently

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-45630365792828056102010-01-10T12:53:00.000-06:002010-01-10T12:53:27.967-06:00

The January thaw is underway as temperatures will finally crack the freezing mark for much of the lower 48 states by mid week. Below is the high temperatures map forecasted by the GFS on Thursday afternoon. Besides the nice warm up a significant winter storm is on the way to traverse the southern United States and up the East coast. A strong upper level storm will start to develop as it

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-14618549110833462472010-01-05T15:48:00.000-06:002010-01-05T15:48:34.128-06:00

The Siberian Express is on the way to the US with a nasty snow storm in front of it. Models and Mets are starting to catch up to this winter storm. That will produce a large swath of 4-8 inch some higher amounts of wind blown snows from the Central Plains east to the Ohio and tennessee Valley then into the Mid Atlantic. This snow will be combined with falling temperatures and winds gusting over

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-55880040502916139912009-12-21T19:31:00.002-06:002009-12-21T19:37:22.708-06:00

Well is this weather pattern busy enough for you? This pattern should be of no surprise since it was advertised and predicted since early November on here. So here we go again with another winter storm just like we experience about two weeks ago. As a low pressure develops on the newest surge of arctic air working it’s way south. On Friday I posted about the two scenarios based on the pattern and

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-69267035748955820642009-12-18T16:14:00.000-06:002009-12-18T16:14:39.659-06:00

A nasty storm continues to crank up on this Friday afternoon in parts of the Southeast. This low pressure will continue to phase with the northern branch of the jet stream and deepen. Later on this evening the low pressure will be positioned off the South Carolina coast. Heavy snows will start to spread north into parts of Mid-Atlantic where snowfall rates will increase to near 1 to 2 inches per

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-22714392939571674032009-12-16T18:12:00.002-06:002009-12-16T18:24:12.363-06:00

A very impressive pattern setting up that I have been tracking and talked about for the past month and a half. This pattern that I alluded to at the beginning of November is starting to set up as we head towards winter. So it only figures as we head into officially the winter season nature snow guns will be full blown. We tried to get into this pattern at the start of

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-13245326200481741172009-12-06T10:30:00.000-06:002009-12-06T10:30:44.622-06:00

As mentioned over a month ago and have been talked about several times over the last week. A major blizzard is in the works but may be a little further north then I expected it to be. The missed forecast by me is because of the very strong high pressure in Canada being a little further north. So what this is doing or not doing I should say is dropping the front further south with a push of cold

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-80233912965745855972009-12-03T16:42:00.001-06:002009-12-03T16:51:31.434-06:00

Good Thursday Morning: The model can't handle the Western trough. The new 114 off the 6z, though farther east and weaker than the Calorevada bomb it had, is still wrong. Instead, the UKMET and Euro are in much better shape, as they do not overdo the cold air feedback over the Rockies that deepens this too much. Instead, they send a piece of it out through the Plains Sunday and through the

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-13701577272258170422009-12-03T09:03:00.000-06:002009-12-03T09:03:10.728-06:00

November ends as one of the warmest in over the last 10 years. Will December be just as cold as November was warm?

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-91488887635505472422009-12-02T17:23:00.000-06:002009-12-02T17:23:26.901-06:00

Don't believe the GFS beyond 3 days in this pattern. The cold air wins early next week and temperatures now forecasted will likely be around 25 degrees colder. As mentioned a month ago I thought the pattern would create a good chance of accumulating snow the first 10 days of December. In my opinion snow is still very possible for Texoma next Tuesday and Wednesday. Currently the GFS and other

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-64307914416572723442009-11-25T16:36:00.001-06:002009-11-25T16:39:04.078-06:00

Here comes the cold air as December from the Rockies to the East Coast looks very cold. As the Ohio Valley and Great lakes could be the coldest since the year 2000. With an active southern track that will likely produce accumulating snow by the end of the year. In such places as Abliene, Texas to Dallas to Shreveport, La to Birmingham, Al to Atlanta, Ga. The Arctic air arrives late next week with

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-49423389653491409432009-10-27T14:48:00.001-05:002009-10-27T14:50:03.575-05:00

Major storm system will develop across the Intermountain West and move into the Plains Wednesday-Friday. This storm will dump very heavy snow across the Rocky Mountains with Denver getting close to a foot in a half of snow by Thursday night. Here is the latest NAM 12Z model showing predicted snowfall accumulation by Thursday Evening. Another big event of this storm system will be severe weather

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-79201754381591568222009-10-25T19:52:00.000-05:002009-10-25T19:52:53.735-05:00

Pattern has slowed down a little and I have been a little busy so I haven't posted that much lately. However don't worry I have been still watching the weather and been trying to find time to continue to put together the winter forecast. The coldest October in Denver history was 1969 with 2002 ranked 3rd. Right now, the month is 7.5 below normal (through today) But another week of double digit

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-58590757616613572542009-10-11T14:03:00.001-05:002009-10-11T14:38:04.070-05:00

Winter getting a jump start Des Moines received its earliest 1 inch snowfall on record yesterday when 1.1 inches feel and two inches of snow in Denver forced the cancellation of the Rockies-Phillies NLDS playoff game last night. A major snowstorm blasted Nebraska Friday night into Saturday as nearly 14 inches fell at North Platte with over 17 inches in some isolated areas. Wind chills dropped

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-14024751859748458222009-10-10T14:20:00.001-05:002009-10-10T14:24:46.409-05:00

 Temperatures are starting to really cool down across Canada as the nights are getting longer and the snow cover is starting to grow. These temperatures will across the Northern and Central Plains for the weekend with accumulating snow in Colorado, Nebraska, Kansas and South Dakota. This resevior of cold air will make its way south and east later next week. One of my

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-78347990754556698062009-10-07T10:20:00.001-05:002009-10-07T10:22:02.768-05:00

A storm system now centered off the California coast will begin moving east. Once it taps the increasing moisture, rain and thunderstorms will envelop the southern Plains again, beginning later today and continuing through Thursday night before ending Friday. Heavy rainfall will be possible, especially over eastern Oklahoma into parts of Missouri and Arkansas. There is also the possiblty severe

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-38958756004232645002009-10-06T17:39:00.000-05:002009-10-06T17:39:31.884-05:00

Map for High Temperatures this Coming Monday ( Columbus Day). As a large Candian area of high pressure moves south into the Central Plains. Before this will be a major storm system with heavy flooding rains, Severe T'storms and the possibility of some accumulating snow. Tracking from the foothills of Colorado through parts of Kansas and Nebraska. I'll have more on this tomorrow.....Justin

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-23317034308342910602009-09-29T18:25:00.001-05:002009-09-29T18:33:43.210-05:00

Here are some maps to show you the threat for severe weather. Starting Wednesday afternoon and continuing into Friday morning. I'll have more details on the timing of event tomorrow afternoon.

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-25121104694194709622009-09-27T17:36:00.005-05:002009-09-27T17:51:43.470-05:00

Our active weather pattern that I have been alluding to kicks in later this week. As it still looks like the next 10-14 days will be very active. As several troughs with pressing cold air try to work itself south against the waning summer heat. This will provide places in the northern Rockies and Plains with their first snowfall. The greatest impact most likely will be a couple possible

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-66459804443818290692009-09-25T07:42:00.002-05:002009-09-25T07:52:15.267-05:00

Looking at the 90 day temperature means you can see during the Summer months June, July and August. A good portion of the nation had below normal temperatures. Much below normal temperatures in the North and Central Plains and including the upper Mississippi Valley. Above normal temperatures were in a couple locations such a California and parts of New Mexico and Texas. Then the graphic next to

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-90500218530491818882009-09-24T18:20:00.003-05:002009-09-24T18:25:45.549-05:00

My ideas of a stormy start to October continue to be support by teleconnections, ensembles and now some of the medium range models. Here is a look at the latest 8-14 500mb analog composite. With this kind of pattern I can see some pretty nice size severe weather outbreaks for fall standards across the Plains and into the Ohio and Mississippi Valley.

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-33810301816585562372009-09-23T07:34:00.003-05:002009-09-23T07:37:03.230-05:00

This is what a split flow in the jet stream does at the end of Summer. Cool underneath and warm over top. As several upper level lows have been affecting the South where near record warmth has occurred in Big Sky Country. Here is a graphic that shows temperatures compared to normal for the first 21 days of the month.

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-39166801871170563712009-09-22T16:02:00.004-05:002009-09-22T16:59:20.879-05:00

Quick post here showing that the atmosphere is starting to show signs and clues of its winter Pattern. Here is the latest 8-14 Analog composite of the 500mb flow center on October 3rd. Notice the reds in Canada representing ridging aloft or warmer than normal heights. As the height lines indicating the flow moving from a ridge off the West Coast. To a fast west to east flow across the lower 48

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-5760281274268818862009-09-21T08:19:00.004-05:002009-09-21T09:19:15.831-05:00

As we head into the work week another very strong upper level low will dig into the central and Northern Plains. So my forecast last week was not all together correct as I failed to see the stronger ridge in the east. So we're heading into another split flow where a piece of energy gets stuck underneath the main jet stream. Here is the latest forecasted 500mb level for the exact time I showed you

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-53404846298804538972009-09-16T17:49:00.007-05:002009-09-16T18:40:43.837-05:00

Oh GFS and your lovely pros and cons...Here is a quick run down of how I think things will play out early next week.Typical GFS fashion with its horrible feedback issues at times. Let me show you here with two graphics which indicate the same time period. However the first one was created during the 0z run Tuesday evening and the second one is only 6 hours later from the 6z run. Notice any

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-62262086597355446662009-09-12T12:31:00.003-05:002009-09-12T12:39:25.924-05:00

Heavy rains across Texas and the Southern Plains marks the end of the summer heat. As the weather pattern is changing and will completely change in the next 2-3 weeks. Until then we'll continue with the summer pattern but a tempered one.Flooding rains are on going here in Texas and across the I-35 corridor in Texas. As some locations have received up to 11 inches of rain which has caused some

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-57041316089221213952009-08-19T15:09:00.005-05:002009-08-19T16:47:58.812-05:00

First lets talk about the tropics as hurricane Bill continues to be a powerful storm. Now a Cat 4 hurricane with 135mph sustained winds. WNW movement has continued by as you see below the models and the NHC continue to predict a northward turn. I'm still very worried for the Northeast coast Sunday and Monday. As any job to the west from the storm will put them in Hurricane force winds. That

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-63916357704264755222009-08-18T11:37:00.003-05:002009-08-18T12:36:01.450-05:00

Bill continues to turn its way across the Atlantic currently affecting no one right now. Here is the latest list of computer runs over the next several days. The track takes it northwest over the next 24 to 48hrs then north west of Bermuda and east of the United States. It's currently a Cat 2 Hurricane with 105 sustained winds. This is forecasted to become a Cat 3 and maybe a weak Cat 4 in the

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-67272351821903773522009-08-16T09:12:00.003-05:002009-08-16T09:27:58.811-05:00

Just as mentioned yesterday a tropical depression has formed in the northeast Gulf of Mexico. This depression will likely be named Claudette and become a tropical storm in the next NHC update. For the latest information from the National Hurricane Center click here. This storm will likely make landfall at a moderate tropical storm with sustained winds around 55mph. As the Gulf Coast is a little

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-41434241971216576442009-08-15T23:00:00.003-05:002009-08-15T23:50:19.289-05:00

First lets talk briefly about the tropics and the current pattern. MJO is going into a phase that will be with us for about two weeks. That favors upward motions for the Gulf and western Atlantic ocean. You can see the MJO is proven its faithfulness as we now have two weak tropical storms. In which there environments will improve over the next couple of days. So I expect both of them to continue

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-31115838979439565572009-07-23T07:58:00.002-05:002009-07-23T08:16:19.753-05:00

Wow, I have been pretty bad recently, updating this website. Its been a very busy and trying time over the past couple of months. Things hopefully for the most part are starting to settle down and look up for me. As I enter unfortunately a stressful time for any on-air personality. That would be of course contract time. My contract is officially up on Oct. 7th as I have started to prepare

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-57469286213361758612009-06-17T18:05:00.004-05:002009-06-17T18:21:19.148-05:00

Severe weather is starting to ramp up Today and will steadily increase through this coming Friday. As an active northwest flow sets up aloft with very warm and humid weather tries to fight northward. This Friday these really collide in the Ohio Valley with severe weather including tornadoes. So if you live in and around the Ohio Valley expect the severe weather to continue and peak on Friday.

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-12658583607579349162009-06-14T10:48:00.003-05:002009-06-14T10:51:46.485-05:00

Nothing really exciting to report unfortunately as yesterdays storm were pretty lame. They kept becoming outflowed and when they didn't they split. So no meso could really become anchored and get wrapped up to produce a tornado. So observed some blowing dust from radar and observed 80mph winds, possible gustnado and some exploding towers from the backside. I'll have pictures from the chase up in

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797919202811851972.post-15817587196059806602009-06-13T08:55:00.003-05:002009-06-13T10:06:16.344-05:00

Well It looks like my afternoon post didn't post so that pisses me off a little. =( Anyways sitting in Colorado Springs currently looking at the beautiful snow capped mountains. Looking to head south within the half hour and race southeast to the Texas Panhandle. Where SPC has upgraded to a moderate risk with 5% tornado risk but 45% hatched for severe hail. They look like slow movers and will

Justin Rudicelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09305937305607393547noreply@blogger.com0