Monday, March 23, 2009

Potent Spring Storm to Produce damaging Severe weather

Severe weather is priming up from South Dakota to Texas. As a very powerful area of low pressure slowly moves east from northeast Colorado into Nebraska. Strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes will stretch from South Dakota to Northern parts of Texas. As a localized tornado outbreak might get underway later this evening from parts of Kansas to Central Oklahoma. Currently the SPC has placed parts of Kansas and Oklahoma under a moderate risk. Dewpoints have climbed into the upper 50s in places with skies starting to clear. A dryline was indicted by a developing agitated cu field in NW Oklahoma. However soundings show a pretty stout cap inversion likely holding off development to after 4pm. I do plan on chasing but trying to finish other things I need to get done along with resting a little. Since I did work this morning and work again tomorrow morning. Here in latest SPC outlook and I'll try to post another update here by 4pm.

Sunday, March 22, 2009

First Big Spring Storm

A very powerful Spring storm system is developing along the lee side of the Rockies. This will cause a raging blizzard on the north side and severe weather down the Plains. Currently modified moisture was advecting north out of the Southern Plains where mid 50 degree dew points have reached parts of Kansas. The moisture will be a question on how severe the storms will get. What will help counter the limited moisture will be very powerful upper level winds. As two spots stick out to me to have the greatest potential for severe and tornadic supercells. One spot looks to be over Central Nebraska south to Northern Kansas and another hot spot will be from North central Oklahoma south to North Texas. As this location if enough moisture can converge along the dryline the upper level winds will make any storm easily rotate. Here is the latest SPC Outlook for Today and then for the bigger Day on Monday. I'll have update later as I'll be watching this closely since its going to effecting my viewing area. Plus I plan on chasing tomorrow afternoon for the station.

Tuesday, March 10, 2009

Lingering Clouds and Veered Winds Kill Severe Weather Threat

Looking at the latest Satellite and Upper Level Analysis the amount of instability and energy is lacking. So only expect to see isolated reports of Severe weather from Illinois southwest towards Texas. Things will really weaken by late evening as the boundary layer cools. Here is the latest Storm Prediction Center.

Severe Weather Likely across Ohio Valley Today

Looking at current surface and air analysis this morning. Severe weather is looking likely for parts of Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, SE Missouri and Western Tennessee. The biggest threat will be in the form of Damaging winds and Isolated large hail up to quarters. If some daytime heating can take place an isolated tornado threat might develop. This would be just to the south of the warm front in parts of Illinois and Indiana. Here is the current Visible satellite( Click here for Latest)

Here is the latest SPC outlook and as you can see a large area is under a slight risk for severe weather. Below the outlook is the outlook for tornadoes which covers parts of Illinois, Indiana, Missouri and Arkansas under a 5% risk.


Another update on storm development later this afternoon as the atmosphere starts to become more unstable.

Sunday, March 8, 2009

Severe Weather Threat in Ohio Valley Today

Strong Short wave and potent surface low pressure continues to race northeast into the Ohio Valley this morning. The SPC has placed parts of Illinois, Indiana and Kentucky in a moderate category for severe weather.

Looking at current surface conditions and visible satellite moderate surface heating was taking place across parts of Illinois and Indiana.

Here is the latest tornado watch and radar as storm race off to the northeast at 60mph. These storms will continue to strengthen as conditions become more unstable with daytime heating. Biggest threat of storms will be damaging winds and large hail up to quarters. If storms can remain discrete they will pose a threat of tornadoes and very large hail up to 2 inches. Greatest threat for Illinois will be from noon-4pm where in Indiana it will be late afternoon and evening from 4pm-8pm. If you live in the Ohio Valley it is imperative that you keep up with the local watches and warnings. Severe weather will be likely throughout the afternoon and evening.

Friday, March 6, 2009

Chances of Severe Weather still lurking

Models and SPC still continue to show the threat of isolated severe weather over the next several days. Still many questions out there on the evolution of the Western trough and how negatively tilted will the weekend storm system become before occluding and weakening. How much moisture will make it up against the cold front and dryline by Saturday afternoon. Also how deep will the moisture be and how much will it mix out during the afternoon.

Looking at the latest CIN against the Lifted Index and CAPE values. I see the best chances of severe weather to be from Eas Central Kansas near Kansas City southwest to South central Oklahoma near Oklahoma City. As the main threat looks to be in the form of mainly large hail up golf balls and some isolated damaging wind gusts. Based on the lasted model shear parameters and low level moisture. The tornado threat looks very limited to near the triple point in South Central Kansas and only for the first hour or two of storm development.


Here is the latest SPC outlook for Saturday and Sunday. Sunday t'storms will be more widespread as the cold front accelerates east into deeper moisture. Portions of Illinois, Indiana, Missouri and Kentucky will have the highest probability of seeing severe weather. Isolated tornado will be possible but the biggest threat will be damaging winds. Along a squall line of t'storms that will race east across the area by Sunday evening.


An even bigger severe weather event will probably take place Monday and Tuesday across the Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley and parts of the Southern Plains. While a blizzard will likely be going strong across the northern Mississippi Valley. Tornadic supercells could be roaming just south of the low pressure in the warm sector. If you live in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, and points to the Southwest including Arkansas, Missouri and far Northeast Texas. You'll need to keep abreast on the latest forecasts over the next couple of days. More updates on early next week later but first lets get over the slight chance of severe weather this weekend.

Tuesday, March 3, 2009

Cold air relaxes in the East as the Drought worsens in the South

A major early spring warm up is underway from the Central Plains east to the Eastern seaboard. As areas that saw there heaviest snows of the year will be in the 70s by tomorrow and the upcoming weekend. So let the melting begin as an strong southern flow takes over. Here is this weekend's big snow storm snowfall across the South and East Coast.

These area will be seeing above normal temperatures as the drought plaqued area of the Southern Plains will be baking in near record heat. Here is the GFS models predicted high temperatures for Thursday and on Sunday. As you can see lower 90s are forecasted for me here in SW Oklahoma. As 60s and some 70s are widespread across the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic on Sunday.


With this warmer air will also come with more moisture as some severe weather will be possible. Right now the models differ on some parameters needed for severe weather. So exact timing, strength and locations of the storms are unknown. The threat is increasing both Saturday and Sunday but again Monday and Tuesday with storm system #2. Storm system number one will push a dryline/cold front across the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend. This could spark some severe t'storms across Kansas and Oklahoma Saturday evening. Then over eastern Oklahoma and Northeast Texas on Sunday. Right now Storm Prediction Center (SPC) only mentions the threat of severe weather on Sunday. Here is that latest outlook for then.

This warm up will be short-lived as more cold air poised for the Eastern U.S. and for the Plains as well. More on this later.....