Returning from Vegas and Still quiet

Well I just returned from an amazing time from Viva Las Vegas for my best friends bachelor party. It was such a great time to spend time with friends and being in a bigger city. The weather here in Lawton and for the majority of the United States remains stable and cooler then average east of the Mississippi. Look ahead over the next two weeks it looks like a northwest flow with a trough in the east. This will continue to limit the warmth from expanding and the return of moisture for the most part. This will be the general trend for the next two weeks but the latest models have started to be a little more interesting for the Sunday. A cold front will press southward into Oklahoma on Sunday as moisture increases from the south with temperatures in the 70s. Currently the SPC doesn't have any of Oklahoma in a risk for severe weather however this could change if the model trend continues. Right now Sunday afternoon in Texoma could be a stormy one as both models GFS and NAM have over 1000 joules of CAPE and decent 0-6km Shear. This could be the first chase of the year but this could easily be pushed south if moisture or low pressure doesn't develop in the Texas panhandle. Stay tuned as I start posting more often if the weather picks up.

Possible first chase day of 2008

Looking at the day 3 outlook we have southwest Oklahoma in the slight risk catagory for severe weather. Right now its looking like a decent cold core situation with the possibility of isolated tornadoes and large hail. Upper level energy will race southeast from the Rockies into Oklahoma late on the day Monday. This is while a stationary front is stalled out over the area with increasing moisture heading north from Texas. There looks to be plenty of shear however dewpoints in the lower 50s don't look the greatest with temps in the low 70s. So the dewpoint depression might be a little too high for that big of tornado risk. Also what will Sunday afternoon winds look like from Oklahoma to Texas as a back door cold front will be moving in. Depending how quickly the winds shift back to the southeast to transport the moisture from the Gulf Coast will be key. Either way I have the day off and planning to be in Oklahoma city that night to visit with friends. So I will likely be chasing and hoping for storms to develop that afternoon. EDIT** 2/27/08 Severe weather was well southeast of the Texoma area and alot weaker then forecasted. So stay tuned for the first chase day of 2008.